Blindly detecting orbital modulations of jets from merging supermassive black holes

In the last few years before merger, supermassive black hole binaries will rapidly inspiral and precess in a magnetic field imposed by a surrounding circumbinary disk. Multiple simulations suggest this relative motion will convert some of the local energy to a Poynting-dominated outflow, with a luminosity 10^{43} erg/s * (B/10^4 G)^2(M/10^8 Msun)^2 (v/0.4 c)^2, some of which may emerge as synchrotron emission at frequencies near 1 GHz where current and planned wide-field radio surveys will operate. On top of a secular increase in power on the gravitational wave inspiral timescale, orbital motion will produce significant, detectable modulations, both on orbital periods and (if black hole spins are not aligned with the binary's total angular momenta) spin-orbit precession timescales. Because the gravitational wave merger time increases rapidly with separation, we find vast numbers of these transients are ubiquitously predicted, unless explicitly ruled out (by low efficiency $\epsilon$) or obscured (by accretion geometry f_{geo}). If the fraction of Poynting flux converted to radio emission times the fraction of lines of sight accessible $f_{geo}$ is sufficiently large (f_{geo} \epsilon > 2\times 10^{-4} for a 1 year orbital period), at least one event is accessible to future blind surveys at a nominal 10^4 {deg}^2 with 0.5 mJy sensitivity. Our procedure generalizes to other flux-limited surveys designed to investigate EM signatures associated with many modulations produced by merging SMBH binaries.Comment: Submitted to ApJ. v1 original submission; v2 minor changes in response to refere

Testing the binary hypothesis: pulsar timing constraints on supermassive black hole binary candidates

The advent of time domain astronomy is revolutionizing our understanding of the Universe. Programs such as the Catalina Real-time Transient Survey (CRTS) or the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) surveyed millions of objects for several years, allowing variability studies on large statistical samples. The inspection of $\approx$250k quasars in CRTS resulted in a catalogue of 111 potentially periodic sources, put forward as supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) candidates. A similar investigation on PTF data yielded 33 candidates from a sample of $\approx$35k quasars. Working under the SMBHB hypothesis, we compute the implied SMBHB merger rate and we use it to construct the expected gravitational wave background (GWB) at nano-Hz frequencies, probed by pulsar timing arrays (PTAs). After correcting for incompleteness and assuming virial mass estimates, we find that the GWB implied by the CRTS sample exceeds the current most stringent PTA upper limits by almost an order of magnitude. After further correcting for the implicit bias in virial mass measurements, the implied GWB drops significantly but is still in tension with the most stringent PTA upper limits. Similar results hold for the PTF sample. Bayesian model selection shows that the null hypothesis (whereby the candidates are false positives) is preferred over the binary hypothesis at about $2.3\sigma$ and $3.6\sigma$ for the CRTS and PTF samples respectively. Although not decisive, our analysis highlights the potential of PTAs as astrophysical probes of individual SMBHB candidates and indicates that the CRTS and PTF samples are likely contaminated by several false positives.Comment: 14 pages, 11 figures, 3 tables. Resubmitted to the Astrophysical Journal after some major revision of the results including a proper estimate of the intrinsic mass of the binary candidate

ACTIVE THERMOGRAPHY TECHNIQUE FOR FATIGUE DAMAGE CHARACTERIZATION IN GEARS

Active Thermography (AT) is a Non Destructive Technique (NDT) that may be an efficient alternative to evaluate possible microstructural alterations inside materials due to damaging conditions. In this paper, a fatigue damage identification on two different gears (standard and thin-rim) was conducted by using an AT approach with a Lock-In technique. Both gears were previously tested under bending fatigue conditions, by loading the teeth at the so called Single Contact Point by a dedicated equipment. Damaged and undamaged zones were identified, phase maps and thermal diffusivities were estimated. In this way, a possible fatigue damage characterisation was pointed out by using the thermal diffusivity variation as damage parameter

Fatigue Damage Estimation from Random Vibration Testing: Application to a notched specimen

Vibrations are random in a wide range of applications and they are the main cause of mechanical failure. To prevent such failure, it is necessary to evaluate the fatigue life using test or analysis techniques. For computing the severity of the damage many methods are available in literature, but the estimation damage is just an approximation. The objective of this study is to propose a numerical model, together with experimental validation, in order to estimate fatigue damage caused by random vibrations in metallic materials undergoing uniaxial fatigue testing

Mergers of luminous early-type galaxies in the local universe and gravitational wave background

Supermassive black hole (SMBH) coalescence in galaxy mergers is believed to be one of the primary sources of very low frequency gravitational waves (GWs). Significant contribution of the GWs comes from mergers of massive galaxies with redshifts z<2. Very few previous studies gave the merger rate of massive galaxies. % We selected a large sample (1209) of close pairs of galaxies with projected separations 7<r_p<50 kpc from 87,889 luminous early-type galaxies (M_r<-21.5) from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 6. These pairs constitute a complete volume-limited sample in the local universe (z<0.12). Using our newly developed technique, 249 mergers have been identified by searching for interaction features. From them, we found that the merger fraction of luminous early-type galaxies is 0.8%, and the merger rate in the local universe is % R_g=(1.0+/-0.4)*10^{-5} Mpc^{-3} Gyr^{-1}} % with an uncertainty mainly depending on the merging timescale. % We estimated the masses of SMBHs in the centers of merging galaxies based on their luminosities. We found that the chirp mass distribution of the SMBH binaries follows a power law with an index of -3.0+/-0.5 in the range 5*10^8--5*10^{9} M_{\odot}. % Using the SMBH population in the mergers and assuming that the SMBHs can be efficiently driven into the GW regime, we investigated the stochastic GW background in the frequency range 10^{-9}--10^{-7} Hz. We obtained the spectrum of the GW background of h_c(f)=10^{-15}(f/yr^{-1})^{-2/3}, which is one magnitude higher than that obtained by Jaffe & Backer in 2003, but consistent with those calculated from galaxy-formation models.Comment: 27 pages, 9 figures, Corrected typos and reference

Ozone in Lombardy: Years 1998-1999

Photochemical pollutants, especially ozone, have reached very high levels in Lombardy in recent years, with peaks of up to 150 ppb in late spring and summer. Lombardy, lying on the Po Plain, supports a large number of cities and industries and these, along with heavy traffic, produce copious amounts of primary pollutants such as nitrogen oxides and numerous volatile organic compounds. Furthermore, the peculiar orography of this region fosters the stagnation of air masses on a basin-scale and the presence of diurnal breezes towards northern areas, along with the evolution of the Mixing Layer, spread the polluted air masses over a large territory. Numerous stations in Lombardy give the concentrations of ozone and of nitrogen oxides. In this paper, ozone measurements carried out at the plain area around Milan and at pre-alpine sites in the spring and summer 1998 and 1999 will be shown and discussed, focusing on the months of May and July. The study of temporal and spatial behaviour of ozone goes hand in hand with the analysis of the Boundary Layer’s evolution. A number of radon stations were operating in Milan and in other sites in Lombardy. Measurements of atmospheric concentrations of radon yield an index of atmospheric stability, of the formation of thermal inversion, of convective turbulence, and of the movement of air masses, and hence they are very relevant to the understanding of the conditions of atmospheric pollutants

The Challenges in Gravitational Wave Astronomy for Space-Based Detectors

The Gravitational Wave (GW) universe contains a wealth of sources which, with the proper treatment, will open up the universe as never before. By observing massive black hole binaries to high redshifts, we should begin to explore the formation process of seed black holes and track galactic evolution to the present day. Observations of extreme mass ratio inspirals will allow us to explore galactic centers in the local universe, as well as providing tests of General Relativity and constraining the value of Hubble's constant. The detection of compact binaries in our own galaxy may allow us to model stellar evolution in the Milky Way. Finally, the detection of cosmic (super)strings and a stochastic background would help us to constrain cosmological models. However, all of this depends on our ability to not only resolve sources and carry out parameter estimation, but also on our ability to define an optimal data analysis strategy. In this presentation, I will examine the challenges that lie ahead in GW astronomy for the ESA L3 Cosmic Vision mission, eLISA.Comment: 12 pages. Plenary presentation to appear in the Proceedings of the Sant Cugat Forum on Astrophysics, Sant Cugat, April 22-25, 201

Quality over Quantity: Optimizing pulsar timing array analysis for stochastic and continuous gravitational wave signals

The search for gravitational waves using Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTAs) is acomputationally expensive complex analysis that involves source-specific noisestudies. As more pulsars are added to the arrays, this stage of PTA analysiswill become increasingly challenging. Therefore, optimizing the number ofincluded pulsars is crucial to reduce the computational burden of dataanalysis. Here, we present a suite of methods to rank pulsars for use withinthe scope of PTA analysis. First, we use the maximization of thesignal-to-noise ratio as a proxy to select pulsars. With this method, we targetthe detection of stochastic and continuous gravitational wave signals. Next, wepresent a ranking that minimizes the coupling between spatial correlationsignatures, namely monopolar, dipolar, and Hellings & Downs correlations.Finally, we also explore how to combine these two methods. We test theseapproaches against mock data using frequentist and Bayesian hypothesis testing.For equal-noise pulsars, we find that an optimal selection leads to an increasein the log-Bayes factor two times steeper than a random selection for thehypothesis test of a gravitational wave background versus a common uncorrelatedred noise process. For the same test but for a realistic EPTA dataset, a subsetof 25 pulsars selected out of 40 can provide a log-likelihood ratio that is$89\%$ of the total, implying that an optimally selected subset of pulsars canyield results comparable to those obtained from the whole array. We expectthese selection methods to play a crucial role in future PTA data combinations.<br

The spin-flip phenomenon in supermassive black hole binary mergers

Massive merging black holes will be the primary sources of powerful gravitational waves at low frequency, and will permit to test general relativity with candidate galaxies close to a binary black hole merger. In this paper we identify the typical mass ratio of the two black holes but then show that the distance when gravitational radiation becomes the dominant dissipative effect (over dynamical friction) does not depend on the mass ratio. However the dynamical evolution in the gravitational wave emission regime does. For the typical range of mass ratios the final stage of the merger is preceded by a rapid precession and a subsequent spin-flip of the main black hole. This already occurs in the inspiral phase, therefore can be described analytically by post-Newtonian techniques. We then identify the radio galaxies with a super-disk as those in which the rapidly precessing jet produces effectively a powerful wind, entraining the environmental gas to produce the appearance of a thick disk. These specific galaxies are thus candidates for a merger of two black holes to happen in the astronomically near future.Comment: v3: 36 pages, 1 figure; discussion on the validity of the model and estimates for the angular value of the spin-flip added to Section 5; v4: minor changes, 2 new references, published versio