Tidal Energy Round Robin Tests: A Comparison of Flow Measurements and Turbine Loading

A Round Robin Tests program is being undertaken within the EC MaRINET2 initiative. This programme studies the used facility influence can have on the performance evaluation of a horizontal axis tidal turbine prototype when it is operated under wave and current conditions. In this paper, we present the design of experiments that is used throughout the work programme and the results related to the flow characterisation obtained at the Ifremer wave and current circulating tank, the Cnr-Inm wave towing tank and the ocean research facility FloWave. These facilities have been identified to provide adequate geometric conditions to accommodate a 0.724 m diameter turbine operating at flow velocities of 0.8 and 1.0 m/s. The set-up is replicated in each of the facilities with exemption of the amount of flow measuring instruments. Intrinsic differences in creating wave and currents between facilities are found. Flow velocities are up to 10% higher than the nominal values and wave amplitudes higher than the target values by up to a factor of 2. These discrepancies are related to the flow and wave generation methods used at each facility. When the flow velocity is measured besides the rotor, the velocity presents an increase of 8% compared to the upstream measurements

Genome-Wide Association Study in East Asians Identifies Novel Susceptibility Loci for Breast Cancer

Genetic factors play an important role in the etiology of both sporadic and familial breast cancer. We aimed to discover novel genetic susceptibility loci for breast cancer. We conducted a four-stage genome-wide association study (GWAS) in 19,091 cases and 20,606 controls of East-Asian descent including Chinese, Korean, and Japanese women. After analyzing 690,947 SNPs in 2,918 cases and 2,324 controls, we evaluated 5,365 SNPs for replication in 3,972 cases and 3,852 controls. Ninety-four SNPs were further evaluated in 5,203 cases and 5,138 controls, and finally the top 22 SNPs were investigated in up to 17,423 additional subjects (7,489 cases and 9,934 controls). SNP rs9485372, near the TGF-β activated kinase (TAB2) gene in chromosome 6q25.1, showed a consistent association with breast cancer risk across all four stages, with a P-value of 3.8×10−12 in the combined analysis of all samples. Adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) were 0.89 (0.85–0.94) and 0.80 (0.75–0.86) for the A/G and A/A genotypes, respectively, compared with the genotype G/G. SNP rs9383951 (P = 1.9×10−6 from the combined analysis of all samples), located in intron 5 of the ESR1 gene, and SNP rs7107217 (P = 4.6×10−7), located at 11q24.3, also showed a consistent association in each of the four stages. This study provides strong evidence for a novel breast cancer susceptibility locus represented by rs9485372, near the TAB2 gene (6q25.1), and identifies two possible susceptibility loci located in the ESR1 gene and 11q24.3, respectively

Impact on Energy Yield of Varying Turbine Designs under Conditions of Misalignment to the Current Flow

Tidal energy resource characterisation using acoustic velocimetry sensors mounted on the seabed informs developers of the location and performance of a tidal energy converter (TEC). This work studies the consequences of miscalculating the established flow direction, i.e., the direction of assumed maximum energy yield. Considering data only above the proposed TEC cut-in velocities showed a difference in the estimated flow direction of up to 4°. Using a power weighted rotor average (PWRA) method to obtain the established flow direction resulted in a difference of less than 1° compared with the hub-height estimate. This study then analysed the impact of turbine alignment on annual energy production (AEP) estimates for a non-yawing tidal turbine. Three variants of horizontal axis tidal turbines, which operate in different locations of the water column, were examined; one using measured data, and the other two via modelled through power curves. During perfect alignment to the established flow direction, natural variations in flow meant that the estimate of AEP differed by up to 1.1% from the theoretical maximum of a fully yawed turbine. In the case of misalignment from the established flow direction, the difference in AEP increased. For a 15° misalignment, the AEP differed by up to 13%. These results quantify important uncertainties in tidal energy site design and performance assessment

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the primary future climate projections within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models for concentration driven simulations. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century encompassing the Tier 1 experiments (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by 1.15 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5–95 % envelope of the highest scenario, SSP5-8.5. This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and to higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensembles' spread, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. The same experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century, a new result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP, but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades in mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome in terms of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same level as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4. Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering 20–28 years from present. 2 °C of warming is reached as early as the late '30s by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5, but as late as the late '50s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered, 5 °C, is reached only by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5, and not until the mid-90s