Polynomial sequences for bond percolation critical thresholds

In this paper, I compute the inhomogeneous (multi-probability) bond critical surfaces for the (4,6,12) and (3^4,6) lattices using the linearity approximation described in (Scullard and Ziff, J. Stat. Mech. P03021), implemented as a branching process of lattices. I find the estimates for the bond percolation thresholds, p_c(4,6,12)=0.69377849... and p_c(3^4,6)=0.43437077..., compared with Parviainen's numerical results of p_c \approx 0.69373383 and p_c \approx 0.43430621 . These deviations are of the order 10^{-5}, as is standard for this method, although they are outside Parviainen's typical standard error of 10^{-7}. Deriving thresholds in this way for a given lattice leads to a polynomial with integer coefficients, the root in [0,1] of which gives the estimate for the bond threshold. I show how the method can be refined, leading to a sequence of higher order polynomials making predictions that likely converge to the exact answer. Finally, I discuss how this fact hints that for certain graphs, such as the kagome lattice, the exact bond threshold may not be the root of any polynomial with integer coefficients.Comment: submitted to Journal of Statistical Mechanic

There is no “I” in TEAM: Players, Leaders, and Team Performance in Public Health Emergency Response

Research Objective: Research objectives are to: 1) assess effect of controller-led in situ simulation on emergency response capacity of state health department; 2) study effects of training on team function, dynamics, and communications among staff responsible for emergency operations at state health department; and 3) train public health teams for high reliability. Data Sets and Sources: Thirty trials (one-hour functional exercises) conducted in the state department operations center over a 16-month period (May 2010 to September 2011). Data gathered using in situ simulation methodology (recording, live viewing, playback analysis). Behavioral markers data collected using event set observational tool (24 recordings analyzed); decision-making data collected using decision taxonomy tool (22 recordings analyzed). Study Design: This quasi-experimental intervention with time-series analysis and comparison group determined effects of the intervention on participants. The study measured team performance in public health preparedness context; examined impact of intervention to achieve high reliability in emergency operations center; and looked at relationship among behavioral markers, decision-making, and team performance. Analysis: Using a descriptive, longitudinal analysis, we examined the frequency and distribution of behavioral markers to identify and describe: distinct phases of team formation and reformation during incident response; patterns and distribution of team behaviors across phases; and relationship among behavioral markers (non-technical skills), leaders, and team effectiveness/performance. Principal Findings: Data indicate that leader’s experience, training, expertise impacts team performance positively (in case of strong leader), as measured by trial scores. Converse is also true – poor leader, negative impact. We infer that team behavior dependent on/associated with leader behavior, and identifiable behaviors of leaders exist based on leadership skills. Conclusion: Our research shows that public health emergency response team performance depends to a certain degree on who the leader is during the response/exercise. To effectively train and prepare response teams, it is essential to understand how non-technical skills, behavioral markers, and leadership interact and impact team performance and high reliability. Implications for The Field of PHSSR: The intervention may be less important in improving response team performance than the leader and his training and experience. No study of leaders at the micro-system level exists with respect to behavioral markers necessary to achieve high reliability in crisis settings. Our data and findings provide insight into that process

Testing refinements by refining tests

One of the potential benefits of formal methods is that they offer the possibility of reducing the costs of testing. A specification acts as both the benchmark against which any implementation is tested, and also as the means by which tests are generated. There has therefore been interest in developing test generation techniques from formal specifications, and a number of different methods have been derived for state based languages such as Z, B and VDM. However, in addition to deriving tests from a formal specification, we might wish to refine the specification further before its implementation. The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between testing and refinement. As our model for test generation we use a DNF partition analysis for operations written in Z, which produces a number of disjoint test cases for each operation. In this paper we discuss how the partition analysis of an operation alters upon refinement, and we develop techniques that allow us to refine abstract tests in order to generate test cases for a refinement. To do so we use (and extend existing) methods for calculating the weakest data refinement of a specification

Critical surfaces for general inhomogeneous bond percolation problems

We present a method of general applicability for finding exact or accurate approximations to bond percolation thresholds for a wide class of lattices. To every lattice we sytematically associate a polynomial, the root of which in $[0,1]$ is the conjectured critical point. The method makes the correct prediction for every exactly solved problem, and comparison with numerical results shows that it is very close, but not exact, for many others. We focus primarily on the Archimedean lattices, in which all vertices are equivalent, but this restriction is not crucial. Some results we find are kagome: $p_c=0.524430...$, $(3,12^2): p_c=0.740423...$, $(3^3,4^2): p_c=0.419615...$, $(3,4,6,4):p_c=0.524821...$, $(4,8^2):p_c=0.676835...$, $(3^2,4,3,4)$: $p_c=0.414120...$ . The results are generally within $10^{-5}$ of numerical estimates. For the inhomogeneous checkerboard and bowtie lattices, errors in the formulas (if they are not exact) are less than $10^{-6}$.Comment: Submitted to J. Stat. Mec

Incidence of cancer and overall risk of mortality in individuals treated with raltegravir-based and non-raltegravir-based combination antiretroviral therapy regimens

Objectives: There are currently few data on the long-term risk of cancer and death in individuals taking raltegravir (RAL). The aim of this analysis was to evaluate whether there is evidence for an association. Methods: The EuroSIDA cohort was divided into three groups: those starting RAL-based combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) on or after 21 December 2007 (RAL); a historical cohort (HIST) of individuals adding a new antiretroviral (ARV) drug (not RAL) to their cART between 1 January 2005 and 20 December 2007, and a concurrent cohort (CONC) of individuals adding a new ARV drug (not RAL) to their cART on or after 21 December 2007. Baseline characteristics were compared using logistic regression. The incidences of newly diagnosed malignancies and death were compared using Poisson regression. Results: The RAL cohort included 1470 individuals [with 4058 person-years of follow-up (PYFU)] compared with 3787 (4472 PYFU) and 4467 (10 691 PYFU) in the HIST and CONC cohorts, respectively. The prevalence of non-AIDS-related malignancies prior to baseline tended to be higher in the RAL cohort vs. the HIST cohort [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.31; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.95–1.80] and vs. the CONC cohort (aOR 1.89; 95% CI 1.37–2.61). In intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis (events: RAL, 50; HIST, 45; CONC, 127), the incidence of all new malignancies was 1.11 (95% CI 0.84–1.46) per 100 PYFU in the RAL cohort vs. 1.20 (95% CI 0.90–1.61) and 0.83 (95% CI 0.70–0.99) in the HIST and CONC cohorts, respectively. After adjustment, there was no evidence for a difference in the risk of malignancies [adjusted rate ratio (RR) 0.73; 95% CI 0.47–1.14 for RALvs. HIST; RR 0.95; 95% CI 0.65–1.39 for RALvs. CONC] or mortality (adjusted RR 0.87; 95% CI 0.53–1.43 for RALvs. HIST; RR 1.14; 95% CI 0.76–1.72 for RALvs. CONC). Conclusions: We found no evidence for an oncogenic risk or poorer survival associated with using RAL compared with control groups.Peer reviewe

Infection-related and -unrelated malignancies, HIV and the aging population

Funding Information: Conflicts of interest: JR reports personal fees from Abbvie, Bionor, BMS, Boehringer, Gilead, Merck, Janssen, Tobira, Tibotec and ViiV, outside the submitted work. OK has received honoraria, consultancy and/or lecture fees from Abbott, Gilead, GSK, Janssen, Merck, Tibotec and Viiv outside the submitted work. All other authors state no commercial or other associations that may pose a conflict of interest. Funding: Primary support for EuroSIDA is provided by the European Commission BIOMED 1 (CT94-1637), BIOMED 2 (CT97-2713), 5th Framework (QLK2-2000-00773), 6th Framework (LSHP-CT-2006-018632) and 7th Framework (FP7/2007?2013; EuroCoord n? 260694) programmes. Current support also includes unrestricted grants from Janssen R&D, Merck and Co. Inc., Pfizer Inc. and GlaxoSmithKline LLC. The participation of centres in Switzerland was supported by The Swiss National Science Foundation (Grant 108787). The authors have no financial disclosures to make. Author contributions: LS developed the project, analysed the data, and was responsible for writing the manuscript. ?HB and OK contributed to the study design and analysis, interpretation of the data and writing of the manuscript. JL proposed the project and contributed to the study design, ideas for analysis, interpretation of the data and writing of the manuscript. BL, PD, AC, JR, BK, JT and IK contributed to national coordination, study design and writing of the manuscript. AM supervised the project and contributed to the study design and analysis, interpretation of the data and writing of the manuscript. Publisher Copyright: © 2016 British HIV AssociationObjectives: HIV-positive people have increased risk of infection-related malignancies (IRMs) and infection-unrelated malignancies (IURMs). The aim of the study was to determine the impact of aging on future IRM and IURM incidence. Methods: People enrolled in EuroSIDA and followed from the latest of the first visit or 1 January 2001 until the last visit or death were included in the study. Poisson regression was used to investigate the impact of aging on the incidence of IRMs and IURMs, adjusting for demographic, clinical and laboratory confounders. Linear exponential smoothing models forecasted future incidence. Results: A total of 15 648 people contributed 95 033 person-years of follow-up, of whom 610 developed 643 malignancies [IRMs: 388 (60%); IURMs: 255 (40%)]. After adjustment, a higher IRM incidence was associated with a lower CD4 count [adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) CD4 count < 200 cells/μL: 3.77; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.59, 5.51; compared with ≥ 500 cells/μL], independent of age, while a CD4 count < 200 cells/μL was associated with IURMs in people aged < 50 years only (aIRR: 2.51; 95% CI 1.40–4.54). Smoking was associated with IURMs (aIRR: 1.75; 95% CI 1.23, 2.49) compared with never smokers in people aged ≥ 50 years only, and not with IRMs. The incidences of both IURMs and IRMs increased with older age. It was projected that the incidence of IRMs would decrease by 29% over a 5-year period from 3.1 (95% CI 1.5–5.9) per 1000 person-years in 2011, whereas the IURM incidence would increase by 44% from 4.1 (95% CI 2.2–7.2) per 1000 person-years over the same period. Conclusions: Demographic and HIV-related risk factors for IURMs (aging and smoking) and IRMs (immunodeficiency and ongoing viral replication) differ markedly and the contribution from IURMs relative to IRMs will continue to increase as a result of aging of the HIV-infected population, high smoking and lung cancer prevalence and a low prevalence of untreated HIV infection. These findings suggest the need for targeted preventive measures and evaluation of the cost−benefit of screening for IURMs in HIV-infected populations.publishersversionPeer reviewe

Establishing a hepatitis C continuum of care among HIV/hepatitis C virus-coinfected individuals in EuroSIDA

Objectives The aim of the study was to establish a methodology for evaluating the hepatitis C continuum of care in HIV/hepatitis C virus (HCV)-coinfected individuals and to characterize the continuum in Europe on 1 January 2015, prior to widespread access to direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy. Methods Stages included in the continuum were as follows: anti-HCV antibody positive, HCV RNA tested, currently HCV RNA positive, ever HCV RNA positive, ever received HCV treatment, completed HCV treatment, follow-up HCV RNA test, and cure. Sustained virological response (SVR) could only be assessed for those with a follow-up HCV RNA test and was defined as a negative HCV RNA result measured > 12 or 24 weeks after stopping treatment. Results Numbers and percentages for the stages of the HCV continuum of care were as follows: anti-HCV positive (n = 5173), HCV RNA tested (4207 of 5173; 81.3%), currently HCV RNA positive (3179 of 5173; 61.5%), ever HCV RNA positive (n = 3876), initiated HCV treatment (1693 of 3876; 43.7%), completed HCV treatment (1598 of 3876; 41.2%), follow-up HCV RNA test to allow SVR assessment (1195 of 3876; 30.8%), and cure (629 of 3876; 16.2%). The proportion that achieved SVR was 52.6% (629 of 1195). There were significant differences between regions at each stage of the continuum (P <0.0001). Conclusions In the proposed HCV continuum of care for HIV/HCV-coinfected individuals, we found major gaps at all stages, with almost 20% of anti-HCV-positive individuals having no documented HCV RNA test and a low proportion achieving SVR, in the pre-DAA era.Peer reviewe