The Calibration of the WISE W1 and W2 Tully-Fisher Relation

In order to explore local large-scale structures and velocity fields, accurate galaxy distance measures are needed. We now extend the well-tested recipe for calibrating the correlation between galaxy rotation rates and luminosities -- capable of providing such distance measures -- to the all-sky, space-based imaging data from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) W1 ($3.4\mu$m) and W2 ($4.6\mu$m) filters. We find a linewidth to absolute magnitude correlation (known as the Tully-Fisher Relation, TFR) of $\mathcal{M}^{b,i,k,a}_{W1} = -20.35 - 9.56 (\log W^i_{mx} - 2.5)$ (0.54 magnitudes rms) and $\mathcal{M}^{b,i,k,a}_{W2} = -19.76 - 9.74 (\log W^i_{mx} - 2.5)$ (0.56 magnitudes rms) from 310 galaxies in 13 clusters. We update the I-band TFR using a sample 9% larger than in Tully & Courtois (2012). We derive $\mathcal{M}^{b,i,k}_I = -21.34 - 8.95 (\log W^i_{mx} - 2.5)$ (0.46 magnitudes rms). The WISE TFRs show evidence of curvature. Quadratic fits give $\mathcal{M}^{b,i,k,a}_{W1} = -20.48 - 8.36 (\log W^i_{mx} - 2.5) + 3.60 (\log W^i_{mx} - 2.5)^2$ (0.52 magnitudes rms) and $\mathcal{M}^{b,i,k,a}_{W2} = -19.91 - 8.40 (\log W^i_{mx} - 2.5) + 4.32 (\log W^i_{mx} - 2.5)^2$ (0.55 magnitudes rms). We apply an I-band -- WISE color correction to lower the scatter and derive $\mathcal{M}_{C_{W1}} = -20.22 - 9.12 (\log W^i_{mx} - 2.5)$ and $\mathcal{M}_{C_{W2}} = -19.63 - 9.11 (\log W^i_{mx} - 2.5)$ (both 0.46 magnitudes rms). Using our three independent TFRs (W1 curved, W2 curved and I-band), we calibrate the UNION2 supernova Type Ia sample distance scale and derive $H_0 = 74.4 \pm 1.4$(stat) $\pm\ 2.4$(sys) kms$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ with 4% total error.Comment: 22 page, 21 figures, accepted to ApJ, Table 1 data at http://spartan.srl.caltech.edu/~neill/tfwisecal/table1.tx

Young and Intermediate-age Distance Indicators

Distance measurements beyond geometrical and semi-geometrical methods, rely mainly on standard candles. As the name suggests, these objects have known luminosities by virtue of their intrinsic proprieties and play a major role in our understanding of modern cosmology. The main caveats associated with standard candles are their absolute calibration, contamination of the sample from other sources and systematic uncertainties. The absolute calibration mainly depends on their chemical composition and age. To understand the impact of these effects on the distance scale, it is essential to develop methods based on different sample of standard candles. Here we review the fundamental properties of young and intermediate-age distance indicators such as Cepheids, Mira variables and Red Clump stars and the recent developments in their application as distance indicators.Comment: Review article, 63 pages (28 figures), Accepted for publication in Space Science Reviews (Chapter 3 of a special collection resulting from the May 2016 ISSI-BJ workshop on Astronomical Distance Determination in the Space Age

Mental health and wellbeing during the COVID-19 pandemic: longitudinal analyses of adults in the UK COVID-19 Mental Health & Wellbeing study

Background The effects of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the population's mental health and well-being are likely to be profound and long lasting. Aims To investigate the trajectory of mental health and well-being during the first 6 weeks of lockdown in adults in the UK. Method A quota survey design and a sampling frame that permitted recruitment of a national sample was employed. Findings for waves 1 (31 March to 9 April 2020), 2 (10 April to 27 April 2020) and 3 (28 April to 11 May 2020) are reported here. A range of mental health factors was assessed: pre-existing mental health problems, suicide attempts and self-harm, suicidal ideation, depression, anxiety, defeat, entrapment, mental well-being and loneliness. Results A total of 3077 adults in the UK completed the survey at wave 1. Suicidal ideation increased over time. Symptoms of anxiety, and levels of defeat and entrapment decreased across waves whereas levels of depressive symptoms did not change significantly. Positive well-being also increased. Levels of loneliness did not change significantly over waves. Subgroup analyses showed that women, young people (18–29 years), those from more socially disadvantaged backgrounds and those with pre-existing mental health problems have worse mental health outcomes during the pandemic across most factors. Conclusions The mental health and well-being of the UK adult population appears to have been affected in the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. The increasing rates of suicidal thoughts across waves, especially among young adults, are concerning

Hybrid Controlled Clinical Trials Using Concurrent Registries in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: A Feasibility Study

Hybrid designs with both randomized arms and an external control cohort preserve key features of randomization and utilize external information to augment clinical trials. In this study, we propose to leverage high-quality, patient-level concurrent registries to enhance clinical trials and illustrate the impact on trial design for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. The proposed methodology was evaluated in a randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trial. We used patient-level information from a well-defined, population-based registry, that was running parallel to the randomized clinical trial, to identify concurrently nonparticipating, eligible patients who could be matched with trial participants, and integrate them into the statistical analysis. We assessed the impact of the addition of the external controls on the treatment effect estimate, precision, and time to reach a conclusion. During the runtime of the trial, a total of 1,141 registry patients were alive; 473 (41.5%) of them fulfilled the eligibility criteria and 133 (11.7%) were enrolled in the study. A matched control population could be identified among the nonparticipating patients. Augmenting the randomized controls with matched external controls could have avoided unnecessary randomization of 17 patients (-12.8%) as well as reducing the study duration from 30.1 months to 22.6 months (-25.0%). Matching eligible external controls from a different calendar period led to bias in the treatment effect estimate. Hybrid trial designs utilizing a concurrent registry with rigorous matching can minimize bias due to a mismatch in calendar time and differences in standard of care, and may accelerate the development of new treatments

Toward an internally consistent astronomical distance scale

Accurate astronomical distance determination is crucial for all fields in astrophysics, from Galactic to cosmological scales. Despite, or perhaps because of, significant efforts to determine accurate distances, using a wide range of methods, tracers, and techniques, an internally consistent astronomical distance framework has not yet been established. We review current efforts to homogenize the Local Group's distance framework, with particular emphasis on the potential of RR Lyrae stars as distance indicators, and attempt to extend this in an internally consistent manner to cosmological distances. Calibration based on Type Ia supernovae and distance determinations based on gravitational lensing represent particularly promising approaches. We provide a positive outlook to improvements to the status quo expected from future surveys, missions, and facilities. Astronomical distance determination has clearly reached maturity and near-consistency.Comment: Review article, 59 pages (4 figures); Space Science Reviews, in press (chapter 8 of a special collection resulting from the May 2016 ISSI-BJ workshop on Astronomical Distance Determination in the Space Age

The Scottish Bladder Cancer Quality Performance Indicators Influencing Outcomes, Prognosis, and Surveillance (Scot BC Quality OPS) Clinical Project

The aim of the Scot BC Quality OPS clinical project is to create a reliable prospective data set for evaluating real-world effectiveness and efficiency consequent to standardisation and monitoring of bladder cancer treatment (through the national Quality Performance Indicator programme) and streamlined surveillance in Scotland. Several work packages have been created, reflecting wide clinical and research collaboration

Dynamic tracking error with shortfall control using stochastic programming

In this contribution we tackle the issue of portfolio management combining benchmarking and risk control. We propose a dynamic tracking error problem and we consider the problem of monitoring at discrete points the shortfalls of the portfolio below a set of given reference levels of wealth.We formulate and solve the resulting dynamic optimization problem using stochastic programming. The proposed model allows for a great flexibility in the combination of the tracking goal and the downside risk protection. We provide the results of out-of-sample simulation experiments, on real data, for different portfolio configurations and different market conditions

Litter quality and its response to water level drawdown in boreal peatlands at plant species and community level

Changes in the structure of plant communities may have much more impact on ecosystem carbon (C) cycling than any phenotypic responses to environmental changes. We studied these impacts via the response of plant litter quality, at the level of species and community, to persistent water-level (WL) drawdown in peatlands. We studied three sites with different nutrient regimes, and water-level manipulations at two time scales. The parameters used to characterize litter quality included extractable substances, cellulose, holocellulose, composition of hemicellulose (neutral sugars, uronic acids), Klason lignin, CuO oxidation phenolic products, and concentrations of C and several nutrients. The litters formed four chemically distinct groups: non-graminoid foliar litters, graminoids, mosses and woody litters. Direct effects of WL drawdown on litter quality at the species level were overruled by indirect effects via changes in litter type composition. The pristine conditions were characterized by Sphagnum moss and graminoid litters. Short-term (years) responses of the litter inputs to WL drawdown were small. In longterm (decades), total litter inputs increased, due to increased tree litter inputs. Simultaneously, the litter type composition and its chemical quality at the community level greatly changed. The changes that we documented will strongly affect soil properties and C cycle of peatlands.Peer reviewe

Global overview of the management of acute cholecystitis during the COVID-19 pandemic (CHOLECOVID study)

Background: This study provides a global overview of the management of patients with acute cholecystitis during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: CHOLECOVID is an international, multicentre, observational comparative study of patients admitted to hospital with acute cholecystitis during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data on management were collected for a 2-month study interval coincident with the WHO declaration of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and compared with an equivalent pre-pandemic time interval. Mediation analysis examined the influence of SARS-COV-2 infection on 30-day mortality. Results: This study collected data on 9783 patients with acute cholecystitis admitted to 247 hospitals across the world. The pandemic was associated with reduced availability of surgical workforce and operating facilities globally, a significant shift to worse severity of disease, and increased use of conservative management. There was a reduction (both absolute and proportionate) in the number of patients undergoing cholecystectomy from 3095 patients (56.2 per cent) pre-pandemic to 1998 patients (46.2 per cent) during the pandemic but there was no difference in 30-day all-cause mortality after cholecystectomy comparing the pre-pandemic interval with the pandemic (13 patients (0.4 per cent) pre-pandemic to 13 patients (0.6 per cent) pandemic; P = 0.355). In mediation analysis, an admission with acute cholecystitis during the pandemic was associated with a non-significant increased risk of death (OR 1.29, 95 per cent c.i. 0.93 to 1.79, P = 0.121). Conclusion: CHOLECOVID provides a unique overview of the treatment of patients with cholecystitis across the globe during the first months of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. The study highlights the need for system resilience in retention of elective surgical activity. Cholecystectomy was associated with a low risk of mortality and deferral of treatment results in an increase in avoidable morbidity that represents the non-COVID cost of this pandemic