initMIP-Antarctica: an ice sheet model initialization experiment of ISMIP6

Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMIP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMIP-Greenland, initMIP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMIP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue

The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: A multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6

The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global mean sea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arctic continues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increased surface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat of marine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6).We estimate the sea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climate forcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The results indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in both scenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90-50 and 32-17mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largest mass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed by surface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today. Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced control experiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. mass loss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcing remained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertainty explains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty and ocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm, respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, the largest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding and implementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheet with the ocean. © Author(s) 2020

The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6

The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global mean sea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arctic continues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increased surface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat of marine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We estimate the sea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climate forcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The results indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in both scenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90±50 and 32±17 mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largest mass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed by surface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today. Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced control experiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. mass loss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcing remained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertainty explains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty and ocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm, respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, the largest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding and implementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheet with the ocean

Analysis of 339 pregnancies in 181 women with 13 different forms of inherited thrombocytopenia

65Pregnancy in women with inherited thrombocytopenias is a major matter of concern as both the mothers and the newborns are potentially at risk of bleeding. However, medical management of this condition cannot be based on evidence because of the lack of consistent information in the literature. To advance knowledge on this matter, we performed a multicentric, retrospective study evaluating 339 pregnancies in 181 women with 13 different forms of inherited thrombocytopenia. Neither the degree of thrombocytopenia nor the severity of bleeding tendency worsened during pregnancy and the course of pregnancy did not differ from that of healthy subjects in terms of miscarriages, fetal bleeding and pre-term births. The degree of thrombocytopenia in the babies was similar to that in the mother. Only 7 of 156 affected newborns had delivery-related bleeding, but 2 of them died of cerebral hemorrhage. The frequency of delivery-related maternal bleeding ranged from 6.8% to 14.2% depending on the definition of abnormal blood loss, suggesting that the risk of abnormal blood loss was increased with respect to the general population. However, no mother died or had to undergo hysterectomy to arrest bleeding. The search for parameters predicting delivery-related bleeding in the mother suggested that hemorrhages requiring blood transfusion were more frequent in women with history of severe bleedings before pregnancy and with platelet count at delivery below 50 × 10(9)/L.openopenPatrizia Noris; Nicole Schlegel; Catherine Klersy; Paula G. Heller; Elisa Civaschi; Nuria Pujol-Moix; Fabrizio Fabris; Remi Favier; Paolo Gresele; Véronique Latger-Cannard; Adam Cuker; Paquita Nurden; Andreas Greinacher; Marco Cattaneo; Erica De Candia; Alessandro Pecci; Marie-Françoise Hurtaud-Roux; Ana C. Glembotsky; Eduardo Muñiz-Diaz; Maria Luigia Randi; Nathalie Trillot; Loredana Bury; Thomas Lecompte; Caterina Marconi; Anna Savoia; Carlo L. Balduini; Sophie Bayart; Anne Bauters; Schéhérazade Benabdallah-Guedira; Françoise Boehlen; Jeanne-Yvonne Borg; Roberta Bottega; James Bussel; Daniela De Rocco; Emmanuel de Maistre; Michela Faleschini; Emanuela Falcinelli; Silvia Ferrari; Alina Ferster; Tiziana Fierro; Dominique Fleury; Pierre Fontana; Chloé James; Francois Lanza; Véronique Le Cam Duchez; Giuseppe Loffredo; Pamela Magini; Dominique Martin-Coignard; Fanny Menard; Sandra Mercier; Annamaria Mezzasoma; Pietro Minuz; Ilaria Nichele; Lucia D. Notarangelo; Tommaso Pippucci; Gian Marco Podda; Catherine Pouymayou; Agnes Rigouzzo; Bruno Royer; Pierre Sie; Virginie Siguret; Catherine Trichet; Alessandra Tucci; Béatrice Saposnik; Dino VeneriPatrizia, Noris; Nicole, Schlegel; Catherine, Klersy; Paula G., Heller; Elisa, Civaschi; Nuria Pujol, Moix; Fabrizio, Fabris; Remi, Favier; Paolo, Gresele; Véronique Latger, Cannard; Adam, Cuker; Paquita, Nurden; Andreas, Greinacher; Marco, Cattaneo; Erica De, Candia; Alessandro, Pecci; Marie Françoise Hurtaud, Roux; Ana C., Glembotsky; Eduardo Muñiz, Diaz; Maria Luigia, Randi; Nathalie, Trillot; Loredana, Bury; Thomas, Lecompte; Caterina, Marconi; Savoia, Anna; Carlo L., Balduini; Sophie, Bayart; Anne, Bauters; Schéhérazade Benabdallah, Guedira; Françoise, Boehlen; Jeanne Yvonne, Borg; Bottega, Roberta; James, Bussel; DE ROCCO, Daniela; Emmanuel de, Maistre; Faleschini, Michela; Emanuela, Falcinelli; Silvia, Ferrari; Alina, Ferster; Tiziana, Fierro; Dominique, Fleury; Pierre, Fontana; Chloé, James; Francois, Lanza; Véronique Le Cam, Duchez; Giuseppe, Loffredo; Pamela, Magini; Dominique Martin, Coignard; Fanny, Menard; Sandra, Mercier; Annamaria, Mezzasoma; Pietro, Minuz; Ilaria, Nichele; Lucia D., Notarangelo; Tommaso, Pippucci; Gian Marco, Podda; Catherine, Pouymayou; Agnes, Rigouzzo; Bruno, Royer; Pierre, Sie; Virginie, Siguret; Catherine, Trichet; Alessandra, Tucci; Béatrice, Saposnik; Dino, Vener

Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming

Determining Greenland Ice Sheet sensitivity to regional climate change: one-way coupling of a 3-D thermo-mechanical ice sheet model with a mesoscale climate model

The Greenland Ice Sheet, which extends south of the Arctic Circle, is vulnerable to melt in a warming climate. Complete melt of the ice sheet would raise global sea level by about 7 meters. Prediction of how the ice sheet will react to climate change requires inputs with a high degree of spatial resolution and improved simulation of the ice-dynamical responses to evolving surface mass balance. No Greenland Ice Sheet model has yet met these requirements.A three-dimensional thermo-mechanical ice sheet model of Greenland was enhanced to address these challenges. First, it was modified to accept high-resolution surface mass balance forcings. Second, a parameterization for basal drainage (of the sort responsible for sustaining the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream) was incorporated into the model. The enhanced model was used to investigate the century to millennial-scale evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet in response to persistent climate trends. During initial experiments, the mechanism of flow in the outlet glaciers was assumed to be independent of climate change, and the outlet glaciers' dominant behavior was to counteract changes in surface mass balance. Around much of the ice sheet, warming resulted in calving front retreat and reduction of total ice sheet discharge. Observations show, however, that the character of outlet glacier flow changes with the climate. The ice sheet model was further developed to simulate observed dynamical responses of Greenland's outlet glaciers. A phenomenological description of the relation between outlet glacier discharge and surface mass balance was calibrated against recent observations. This model was used to investigate the ice sheet's response to a hypothesized 21st century warming trend. Enhanced discharge accounted for a 60% increase in Greenland mass loss, resulting in a net sea level increment of 7.3 cm by year 2100. By this time, the average surface mass balance had become negative, and widespread marginal thinning had caused 30% of historically active calving fronts to retreat. Mass losses persisted throughout the century due to flow of dynamically responsive outlets capable of sustaining high calving rates. Thinning in these areas propagated upstream into higher elevation catchments. Large drainage basins with low-lying outlets, especially those along Greenland's west coast and those fed by the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream, were most susceptible to dynamic mass loss in the 21st centur

Determining Greenland Ice Sheet sensitivity to regional climate change: one-way coupling of a 3-D thermo-mechanical ice sheet model with a mesoscale climate model

The Greenland Ice Sheet, which extends south of the Arctic Circle, is vulnerable to melt in a warming climate. Complete melt of the ice sheet would raise global sea level by about 7 meters. Prediction of how the ice sheet will react to climate change requires inputs with a high degree of spatial resolution and improved simulation of the ice-dynamical responses to evolving surface mass balance. No Greenland Ice Sheet model has yet met these requirements.A three-dimensional thermo-mechanical ice sheet model of Greenland was enhanced to address these challenges. First, it was modified to accept high-resolution surface mass balance forcings. Second, a parameterization for basal drainage (of the sort responsible for sustaining the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream) was incorporated into the model. The enhanced model was used to investigate the century to millennial-scale evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet in response to persistent climate trends. During initial experiments, the mechanism of flow in the outlet glaciers was assumed to be independent of climate change, and the outlet glaciers' dominant behavior was to counteract changes in surface mass balance. Around much of the ice sheet, warming resulted in calving front retreat and reduction of total ice sheet discharge. Observations show, however, that the character of outlet glacier flow changes with the climate. The ice sheet model was further developed to simulate observed dynamical responses of Greenland's outlet glaciers. A phenomenological description of the relation between outlet glacier discharge and surface mass balance was calibrated against recent observations. This model was used to investigate the ice sheet's response to a hypothesized 21st century warming trend. Enhanced discharge accounted for a 60% increase in Greenland mass loss, resulting in a net sea level increment of 7.3 cm by year 2100. By this time, the average surface mass balance had become negative, and widespread marginal thinning had caused 30% of historically active calving fronts to retreat. Mass losses persisted throughout the century due to flow of dynamically responsive outlets capable of sustaining high calving rates. Thinning in these areas propagated upstream into higher elevation catchments. Large drainage basins with low-lying outlets, especially those along Greenland's west coast and those fed by the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream, were most susceptible to dynamic mass loss in the 21st centur