Oscillators and relaxation phenomena in Pleistocene climate theory

Ice sheets appeared in the northern hemisphere around 3 million years ago and glacial-interglacial cycles have paced Earth's climate since then. Superimposed on these long glacial cycles comes an intricate pattern of millennial and sub-millennial variability, including Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events. There are numerous theories about theses oscillations. Here, we review a number of them in order to draw a parallel between climatic concepts and dynamical system concepts, including, in particular, the relaxation oscillator, excitability, slow-fast dynamics and homoclinic orbits. Namely, almost all theories of ice ages reviewed here feature a phenomenon of synchronisation between internal climate dynamics and the astronomical forcing. However, these theories differ in their bifurcation structure and this has an effect on the way the ice age phenomenon could grow 3 million years ago. All theories on rapid events reviewed here rely on the concept of a limit cycle in the ocean circulation, which may be excited by changes in the surface freshwater surface balance. The article also reviews basic effects of stochastic fluctuations on these models, including the phenomenon of phase dispersion, shortening of the limit cycle and stochastic resonance. It concludes with a more personal statement about the potential for inference with simple stochastic dynamical systems in palaeoclimate science. Keywords: palaeoclimates, dynamical systems, limit cycle, ice ages, Dansgaard-Oeschger eventsComment: Published in the Transactions of the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society (Series A, Physical Mathematical and Engineering Sciences), as a contribution to the Proceedings of the workshop on Stochastic Methods in Climate Modelling, Newton Institute (23-27 August). Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society (Series A, Physical Mathematical and Engineering Sciences), vol. 370, pp. xx-xx (2012); Source codes available on request to author and on http://www.uclouvain.be/ito

Aerosol chemical composition and distribution during the Pacific Exploratory Mission (PEM) Tropics

Distributions of aerosol-associated soluble ions over much of the South Pacific were determined by sampling from the NASA DC-8 as part of the Pacific Exploratory Mission (PEM) Tropics campaign. The mixing ratios of all ionic species were surprisingly low throughout the free troposphere (2-12 km), despite the pervasive influence from biomass burning plumes advecting over the South Pacific from the west during PEM-Tropics. At the same time, the specific activity of 7Be frequently exceeded 1000 fCi m-3 through much of the depth of the troposphere. These distributions indicate that the plumes must have been efficiently scavenged by precipitation (removing the soluble ions), but that the scavenging must have occurred far upwind of the DC-8 sampling regions (otherwise 7Be activities would also have been low). This inference is supported by large enhancements of HNO3 and carboxylic acids in many of the plumes, as these soluble acidic gases would also be readily scavenged in any precipitation events. Decreasing mixing ratios of NH4 + with altitude in all South Pacific regions sampled provide support for recent suggestions that oceanic emissions of NH3 constitute a significant source far from continents. Our sampling below 2 km reaffirms the latitudinal pattern in the methylsulfonate/non-sea-salt sulfate (MSA/nss SO4 =) molar ratio established through surface-based and shipboard sampling, with values increasing from \u3c0.05 in the tropics to nearly 0.6 at 70°S. However, we also found very high values of this ratio (0.2-0.5) at 10 km altitude above the intertropical convergence zone near 10°N. It appears that wet convective pumping of dimethylsulfide from the tropical marine boundary layer is responsible for the high values of the MSA/nss SO4 = ratio in the tropical upper troposphere. This finding complicates use of this ratio to infer the zonal origin of biogenic S transported long distances. Copyright 1999 by the American Geophysical Union

Two-hundred-year Record of Biogenic Sulfur in a South Greenland Ice Core (20D)

The concentration of methanesulfonic acid (MSA) was determined in a shallow south central Greenland ice core(20D). This study provides a high-resolution record of the DMS-derived biogenic sulfur in Greenland precipitation over the past 200 years. The mean concentration of MSA is 3.30 ppb(σ = 2.38 ppb,n = 1134). The general trend of MSA is an increase from 3.01 to 4.10 ppb between 1767 and 1900, followed by a steady decrease to 2.34 ppb at the present time. This trend is in marked contrast to that of non-sea-salt sulfate (nss SO42-), which increases dramatically after 1900 due to the input of anthropogenic sulfur. The MSA fraction ((MSA/(MSA+ nss SO42-))* 100) ranges from a mean of 15% in preindustrial ice to less than 5% in recent ice. These MSA fraction suggest that approximately 5 to 40% of the sulfur in recent Greenland ice is of biological origin. It is suggested that there is a significant low-latitude component to the biogenic sulfur in the core and that variations in the MSA fraction reflect changes in the relative strengths of low- and high-latitude inputs. The data shown o evidence for a strong dependence of dimethyl sulfide(DMS) emissions on sea surface temperature during the last century. There is also no indication that the yield of MSA from DMS oxidation has been altered by increased NOx levels over the North Atlantic during this period

Transitions across Melancholia States in a climate model: reconciling the deterministic and stochastic points of view

The Earth is well known to be, in the current astronomical configuration, in a regime where two asymptotic states can be realized. The warm state we live in is in competition with the ice-covered snowball state. The bistability exists as a result of the positive ice-albedo feedback. In a previous investigation performed on a intermediate complexity climate model we identified the unstable climate states (melancholia states) separating the coexisting climates, and studied their dynamical and geometrical properties. The melancholia states are ice covered up to the midlatitudes and attract trajectories initialized on the basin boundary. In this Letter, we study how stochastically perturbing the parameter controlling the intensity of the incoming solar radiation impacts the stability of the climate. We detect transitions between the warm and the snowball state and analyze in detail the properties of the noise-induced escapes from the corresponding basins of attraction. We determine the most probable paths for the transitions and find evidence that the melancholia states act as gateways, similarly to saddle points in an energy landscape

Spatial and temporal variability of the dimethylsulfide to chlorophyll ratio in the surface ocean: an assessment based on phytoplankton group dominance determined from space

Dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) is produced in surface seawater by phytoplankton. Phytoplankton culture experiments have shown that nanoeucaryotes (NANO) display much higher mean DMSP-to-Carbon or DMSP-to-Chlorophyll (Chl) ratios than Prochlorococcus (PRO), Synechococcus (SYN) or diatoms (DIAT). Moreover, the DMSP-lyase activity of algae which cleaves DMSP into dimethylsulfide (DMS) is even more group specific than DMSP itself. Ship-based observations have shown at limited spatial scales, that sea surface DMS-to-Chl ratios (DMS:Chl) are dependent on the composition of phytoplankton groups. Here we use satellite remote sensing of Chl (from SeaWiFS) and of Phytoplankton Group Dominance (PGD from PHYSAT) with ship-based sea surface DMS concentrations (8 cruises in total) to assess this dependence on an unprecedented spatial scale. PHYSAT provides PGD (either NANO, PRO, SYN, DIAT, Phaeocystis (PHAEO) or coccolithophores (COC)) in each satellite pixel (1/4° horizontal resolution). While there are identification errors in the PHYSAT method, it is important to note that these errors are lowest for NANO PGD which we typify by high DMSP:Chl. In summer, in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean, we find that mean DMS:Chl associated with NANO + PHAEO and PRO + SYN + DIAT are 13.6±8.4 mmol g−1 (n=34) and 7.3±4.8 mmol g−1 (n=24), respectively. That is a statistically significant difference (P<0.001) that is consistent with NANO and PHAEO being relatively high DMSP producers. However, in the western North Atlantic between 40° N and 60° N, we find no significant difference between the same PGD. This is most likely because coccolithophores account for the non-dominant part of the summer phytoplankton assemblages. Meridional distributions at 22° W in the Atlantic, and 95° W and 110° W in the Pacific, both show a marked drop in DMS:Chl near the equator, down to few mmol g−1, yet the basins exhibit different PGD (NANO in the Atlantic, PRO and SYN in the Pacific). In tropical and subtropical Atlantic and Pacific waters away from the equatorial and coastal upwelling, mean DMS:Chl associated with high and low DMSP producers are statistically significantly different, but the difference is opposite of that expected from culture experiments. Hence, in a majority of cases PGD is not of primary importance in controlling DMS:Chl variations. We therefore conclude that water-leaving radiance spectra obtained simultaneously from ocean color sensor measurements of Chl concentrations and dominant phytoplankton groups can not be used to predict global fields of DMS

Toward an integrative understanding of social behavior: new models and new opportunities.

Social interactions among conspecifics are a fundamental and adaptively significant component of the biology of numerous species. Such interactions give rise to group living as well as many of the complex forms of cooperation and conflict that occur within animal groups. Although previous conceptual models have focused on the ecological causes and fitness consequences of variation in social interactions, recent developments in endocrinology, neuroscience, and molecular genetics offer exciting opportunities to develop more integrated research programs that will facilitate new insights into the physiological causes and consequences of social variation. Here, we propose an integrative framework of social behavior that emphasizes relationships between ultimate-level function and proximate-level mechanism, thereby providing a foundation for exploring the full diversity of factors that underlie variation in social interactions, and ultimately sociality. In addition to identifying new model systems for the study of human psychopathologies, this framework provides a mechanistic basis for predicting how social behavior will change in response to environmental variation. We argue that the study of non-model organisms is essential for implementing this integrative model of social behavior because such species can be studied simultaneously in the lab and field, thereby allowing integration of rigorously controlled experimental manipulations with detailed observations of the ecological contexts in which interactions among conspecifics occur

Increased Epithelial Gaps in the Small Intestine Are Predictive of Hospitalization and Surgery in Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease

Objectives: Epithelial gaps resulting from intestinal cell extrusions can be visualized with confocal laser endomicroscopy (CLE) during colonoscopy and increased in normal-appearing terminal ileum of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients. Cell-shedding events on CLE were found to be predictive of disease relapse. The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic value of epithelial gap densities for major clinical events (hospitalization or surgery) in follow-up. Methods: We prospectively followed IBD patients undergoing colonoscopy with probe-based CLE (pCLE) for clinical events including symptom flares, medication changes, hospitalization, or surgery. Survival analysis methods were used to compare event times for the composite outcome of hospitalization or surgery using log-rank tests and Cox proportional hazards models. We also examined the relationship of gap density with IBD flares, need for anti-tumor necrosis factor therapy, disease duration, gender and endoscopic disease severity, and location. Results: A total of 21 Crohn's disease and 20 ulcerative colitis patients with a median follow-up of 14 (11–31) months were studied. Patients with elevated gap density were at significantly higher risk for hospitalization or surgery (log-rank test P=0.02). Gap density was a significant predictor for risk of major events, with a hazard ratio of 1.10 (95% confidence interval=1.01, 1.20) associated with each increase of 1% in gap density. Gap density was also correlated with IBD disease duration (Spearman's correlation coefficient rho=0.44, P=0.004), and was higher in male patients (9.0 vs. 3.6 gaps per 100 cells, P=0.038). Conclusions: Increased epithelial gaps in the small intestine as determined by pCLE are a predictor for future hospitalization or surgery in IBD patients

Unique Aspects of the Design of Phase I/II Clinical Trials of Stem Cell Therapy

This chapter will review the unique aspects and limitations of the design of phase I/II (safety and efficacy) clinical trials of stem cell therapy. Although the classical pharmacologic principles applicable to drugs are not applicable to biologic (live cell) therapeutic agents, an important stage in the development of any new therapeutic agent is the establishment of an optimal dosage and delivery route. This can be particularly challenging when the treatment is a biologic agent, such as stem cells, that may exert its therapeutic effects via complex or poorly understood mechanisms. To date, clinical studies have shown inconsistent findings regarding the relationship between cell dose and clinical outcomes. This can be at least partially attributed to variations in donor cell type, source, characteristics, dosing/concentration, delivery route, underlying mechanisms of action, and efficacy endpoints tested. The current recommendations will be reviewed herein to give new investigators a general understanding of the unique issues that need to be considered and addressed when designing a stem cell therapy phase I/II clinical trial

The Lore of Low Methane Livestock:Co-Producing Technology and Animals for Reduced Climate Change Impact

Methane emissions from sheep and cattle production have gained increasing profile in the context of climate change. Policy and scientific research communities have suggested a number of technological approaches to mitigate these emissions. This paper uses the concept of co-production as an analytical framework to understand farmers’ evaluation of a 'good animal’. It examines how technology and sheep and beef cattle are co-produced in the context of concerns about the climate change impact of methane. Drawing on 42 semi-structured interviews, this paper demonstrates that methane emissions are viewed as a natural and integral part of sheep and beef cattle by farmers, rather than as a pollutant. Sheep and beef cattle farmers in the UK are found to be an extremely heterogeneous group that need to be understood in their specific social, environmental and consumer contexts. Some are more amenable to appropriating methane reducing measures than others, but largely because animals are already co-constructed from the natural and the technical for reasons of increased production efficiency

How Many Lymph Nodes Are Enough? Assessing the Adequacy of Lymph Node Yield for Staging in Favorable Histology Wilms Tumor

© 2019 Elsevier Inc. Purpose: Current investigational priorities in the treatment of favorable histology Wilms tumor (FHWT) center on accurate staging and risk-stratification. The extent of lymph node (LN) sampling has not been clearly defined; its importance cannot be overstated as it guides adjuvant therapy. The identification of a minimum LN yield to minimize the risk of harboring occult metastatic disease could help development of surgical guidelines. This study focuses on using the beta-binomial distribution to estimate the risk of occult metastatic disease in patients with FHWT. Materials & methods: The National Cancer Database was queried for patients with unilateral FHWT from 2004 to 2013. Data were used to characterize nodal positivity for patients who underwent surgery and had ≥ 1 positive LN and ≥ 2 LNs examined. The probability of missing a positive LN (i.e., false negative) for a given LN yield was calculated using an empirical estimation and the beta-binomial model. Patients were then stratified by tumor size. Results: 422 patients met study criteria. To limit the chance of missing a positive LN to ≤ 10%, the empirical estimation and beta-binomial model estimated that 6 and 10 LNs needed to be sampled, respectively. Tumor size did not influence the result. Internal validation showed little variation to maintain a false negative rate ≤ 10%. Conclusions: Using mathematical modeling, it appears that the desired LN yield in FHWT to reduce the risk of false-negative LN sampling to ≤ 10% is between 6 and 10. The current analysis represents an objective attempt to determine the desired surgical approach to LN sampling to accurately stage patients with FHWT. Level of evidence: I