Entangled Stories: The Red Jews in Premodern Yiddish and German Apocalyptic Lore

“Far, far away from our areas, somewhere beyond the Mountains of Darkness, on the other side of the Sambatyon River…there lives a nation known as the Red Jews.” The Red Jews are best known from classic Yiddish writing, most notably from Mendele's Kitser masoes Binyomin hashlishi (The Brief Travels of Benjamin the Third). This novel, first published in 1878, represents the initial appearance of the Red Jews in modern Yiddish literature. This comical travelogue describes the adventures of Benjamin, who sets off in search of the legendary Red Jews. But who are these Red Jews or, in Yiddish, di royte yidelekh? The term denotes the Ten Lost Tribes of Israel, the ten tribes that in biblical times had composed the Northern Kingdom of Israel until they were exiled by the Assyrians in the eighth century BCE. Over time, the myth of their return emerged, and they were said to live in an uncharted location beyond the mysterious Sambatyon River, where they would remain until the Messiah's arrival at the end of time, when they would rejoin the rest of the Jewish people. This article is part of a broader study of the Red Jews in Jewish popular culture from the Middle Ages through modernity. It is partially based on a chapter from my book, Umstrittene Erlöser: Politik, Ideologie und jüdisch-christlicher Messianismus in Deutschland, 1500–1600 (Göttingen: Vandenhoeck & Ruprecht, 2011). Several postdoctoral fellowships have generously supported my research on the Red Jews: a Dr. Meyer-Struckmann-Fellowship of the German Academic Foundation, a Harry Starr Fellowship in Judaica/Alan M. Stroock Fellowship for Advanced Research in Judaica at Harvard University, a research fellowship from the Heinrich Hertz-Foundation, and a YIVO Dina Abramowicz Emerging Scholar Fellowship. I thank the organizers of and participants in the colloquia and conferences where I have presented this material in various forms as well as the editors and anonymous reviewers of AJS Review for their valuable comments and suggestions. I am especially grateful to Jeremy Dauber and Elisheva Carlebach of the Institute for Israel and Jewish Studies at Columbia University, where I was a Visiting Scholar in the fall of 2009, for their generous encouragement to write this article. Sue Oren considerably improved my English. The style employed for Romanization of Yiddish follows YIVO's transliteration standards. Unless otherwise noted, translations from the Yiddish, Hebrew, German, and Latin are my own. Quotations from the Bible follow the JPS translation, and those from the Babylonian Talmud are according to the Hebrew-English edition of the Soncino Talmud by Isidore Epstein

Recommendations for National Risk Assessment for Disaster Risk Management in EU

Decision No 1313/2013/EU on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism (UCPM) calls Participating States to develop risk assessments periodically and make the summary of their National Risk Assessment (NRA) available to the European Commission as a way to prevent disaster risk in Europe. In order to facilitate countries on this task, the European Commission developed the Guidelines on risk assessment and mapping. In spite of these, the summaries received have revealed several challenges related to the process and the content of the assessments. The current report aims to provide scientific support to the UCPM participant countries in their development of NRA, explaining why and how a risk assessment could be carried out, how the results of this could be used for Disaster Risk Management planning and in general, how science can help civil protection authorities and staff from ministries and agencies engaged in NRA activities. The report is the result of the collaborative effort of the Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre team and nine Joint Research Centre expert groups which provided their insight on tools and methods for specific risk assessment related to certain hazards and assets: drought, earthquakes, floods, terrorist attacks, biological disasters, critical infrastructures, chemical accidents, nuclear accidents and Natech accidents. The current document would be improved by a next version that would include scientific guidance on other risks and the collaboration of potential users.JRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Managemen

Classical HLA-DRB1 and DPB1 alleles account for HLA associations with primary biliary cirrhosis

Susceptibility to primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is strongly associated with HLA region polymorphisms. To determine if associations can be explained by classical HLA determinants we studied Italian 676 cases and 1440 controls with genotyped with dense single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for which classical HLA alleles and amino acids were imputed. Although previous genome-wide association studies and our results show stronger SNP associations near DQB1, we demonstrate that the HLA signals can be attributed to classical DRB1 and DPB1 genes. Strong support for the predominant role of DRB1 is provided by our conditional analyses. We also demonstrate an independent association of DPB1. Specific HLA-DRB1 genes (*08, *11 and *14) account for most of the DRB1 association signal. Consistent with previous studies, DRB1*08 (p = 1.59 × 10(−11)) was the strongest predisposing allele where as DRB1*11 (p = 1.42 × 10(−10)) was protective. Additionally DRB1*14 and the DPB1 association (DPB1*03:01) (p = 9.18 × 10(−7)) were predisposing risk alleles. No signal was observed in the HLA class 1 or class 3 regions. These findings better define the association of PBC with HLA and specifically support the role of classical HLA-DRB1 and DPB1 genes and alleles in susceptibility to PBC

How Expert Is the Crowd? Insights into Crowd Opinions on the Severity of Earthquake Damage

The evaluation of earthquake damage is central to assessing its severity and damage characteristics. However, the methods of assessment encounter difficulties concerning the subjective judgments and interpretation of the evaluators. Thus, it is mainly geologists, seismologists, and engineers who perform this exhausting task. Here, we explore whether an evaluation made by semiskilled people and by the crowd is equivalent to the experts’ opinions and, thus, can be harnessed as part of the process. Therefore, we conducted surveys in which a cohort of graduate students studying natural hazards (n = 44) and an online crowd (n = 610) were asked to evaluate the level of severity of earthquake damage. The two outcome datasets were then compared with the evaluation made by two of the present authors, who are considered experts in the field. Interestingly, the evaluations of both the semiskilled cohort and the crowd were found to be fairly similar to those of the experts, thus suggesting that they can provide an interpretation close enough to an expert’s opinion on the severity level of earthquake damage. Such an understanding may indicate that although our analysis is preliminary and requires more case studies for this to be verified, there is vast potential encapsulated in crowd-sourced opinion on simple earthquake-related damage, especially if a large amount of data is to be handled

Archaeological and Natural Indicators of Sea-Level and Coastal Changes: The Case Study of the Caesarea Roman Harbor

Archaeological and geomorphological features, as well as traces left by tsunamis, earthquakes, and vertical earth-crust displacements, are used to identify sea-level and coastal changes. Such features may be displaced, submerged or eroded by natural processes and human activities. Thus, identifying ancient sea levels and coastal changes associated with such processes may be controversial and often leads to misinterpretations. We exemplify the use of sediment deposits and sea-level and coastline indicators by discussing the enigmatic demise of the Roman harbor of Caesarea, one of the greatest marine constructions built in antiquity, which is still debated and not fully understood. It was suggested that the harbor destruction was mainly the result of either tectonic subsidence associated with a local, active fault line, or as a result of an earthquake/tsunami that struck the harbor. Here we examine and reassess the deterioration of the harbor in light of historical records, and geological, geomorphological and archaeological studies of natural and man-made features associated with the harbor. We show that the alleged evidence of an earthquakes or tsunami-driven damage to the outer breakwaters is equivocal. There is no supporting evidence for the assumed tectonic, active fault, nor is there a reliable historic account of such a catastrophic destruction. It is suggested that geo-technic failure of the breakwater’s foundations caused by a series of annual winter storms was the main reason for the destruction and ultimate collapse of the western basin of the harbor. The breakwaters were constructed on unconsolidated sand that was later washed away by storm waves and sea currents that frequently hit the Israeli coast and undercut the breakwaters. The pounding effect of the waves could have contributed to the destruction by scouring and liquefying the sandy seabed underlying the foundations. Tsunamis that may have hit Caesarea could have added to the deterioration of the breakwaters, but did not constitute the main cause of its destruction

Modern outlook on the source of the 551 AD tsunamigenic earthquake that struck the Phoenician (Lebanon) coast

On July 9th, 551 AD, a strong earthquake followed by a noticeable tsunami and another destructive shock hit the littoral zone of Phoenicia, currently Lebanon. The sequence of events was associated with active faults in the region, but the source able to explain both seismic and tsunami effects is still a matter of open debate. This article contributes to unlocking this enigma by providing a modern analysis of the historical accounts of macroseismic effects, earthquake environmental and tsunami effects, and archaeoseismic findings. Here, we conduct seismotectonic research, evaluate the intensities of all the associated effects, and perform coseismic deformation and numerical tsunami modeling to infer the most likely source. Our results suggest that either the thrust system noted as Mount Lebanon Thrust underlying Lebanon and crops out at the seabed offshore of the coast or the intermittent transpressive Tripoli-Batroun-Jounieh-Damour fault zone along the Lebanese coast are the best candidate sources for the 551 AD earthquakes and tsunami. Both of these sources allow us to better explain the macroseismic, morphological and tsunamigenic effects. Remarkably, the notable uplift of the coastal, marine-cut terraces along the Lebanese littoral zone is well reproduced by the coseismic uplift associated with these sources, thus also clarifying the considerable drawback of the sea and limited inundation reported by the historical accounts