Detection and predictive modeling of chaos in finite hydrological time series

International audienceThe ability to detect the chaotic signal from a finite time series observation of hydrologic systems is addressed in this paper. The presence of random and seasonal components in hydrological time series, like rainfall or runoff, makes the detection process challenging. Tests with simulated data demonstrate the presence of thresholds, in terms of noise to chaotic-signal and seasonality to chaotic-signal ratios, beyond which the set of currently available tools is not able to detect the chaotic component. The investigations also indicate that the decomposition of a simulated time series into the corresponding random, seasonal and chaotic components is possible from finite data. Real streamflow data from the Arkansas and Colorado rivers are used to validate these results. Neither of the raw time series exhibits chaos. While a chaotic component can be extracted from the Arkansas data, such a component is either not present or can not be extracted from the Colorado data. This indicates that real hydrologic data may or may not have a detectable chaotic component. The strengths and limitations of the existing set of tools for the detection and modeling of chaos are also studied

Dvopulsni sustav za isporuku amoksicilina: Pokušaj sprečavanja bakterijske rezistencije na antibiotike

Bearing in mind the present scenario of the increasing biological tolerance of bacteria against antibiotics, a time controlled two pulse dosage form of amoxicillin was developed. The compression coating inlay tablet approach was used to deliver the drug in two pulses to different parts of the GIT after a well defined lag time between the two releases. This was made possible by formulating a core containing one of the two drug fractions (intended to be delivered as the second pulse), which was spray coated with a suspension of ethyl cellulose and a hydrophilic but water insoluble agent as a pore former (microcrystalline cellulose). Coating of 1 up to 5 % (m/m) was applied over the core tablet, giving a corresponding lag of 3, 5, 7 and 12 h. Increasing the level of coating led to retardation of the water uptake capacity of the core, leading to prolongation of the lag time. Microcrystalline cellulose was used as a hydrophilic but water insoluble porosity modifier in the barrier layer, varying the concentration of which had a significant effect on shortening or prolongation of the lag time. This coated system was further partially compression coated with the remaining drug fraction (to be released as the first immediate release pulse) with a disintegrant, giving a final tablet. The core tablet and the final two pulse inlay tablet were further investigated for the in vitro performance.Zbog sve učestalije pojave rezistencije bakterija na antibiotike, razvijen je dvopulsni sustav s vremenskom kontrolom za isporuku amoksicilina. Sustav čine slojevite tablete s obloženim slojem dobivenim metodom kompresije, koji omogućavaju isporuku lijeka u dva pulsa u različite dijelove gastrointestinalnog trakta, s utvrđenom odgodom između dva oslobađanja. Ovakav način oslobađanja postignut je s pripravkom koji u jezgri tablete sadrži jednu frakciju lijeka (koja se oslobađa kao drugi puls), a u oblozi drugu. Obloženi dio dobiven je sprejanjem sa suspenzijom etilceluloze i hidrofilnog, ali vodonetopljivog sredstva koji tvori pore (mikrokristalinična celuloza). Oblaganje sa slojem koji čini 1 do 5 % (m/m) mase jezgre postignut je vremenski odmak drugog pulsa od 3, 5, 7 i 12 h. Povećanjem mase obložnog sloja smanjuje se kapacitet prodiranja vode u jezgru tablete, što produljuje vrijeme drugog pulsa. Mikrokristalinična celuloza uporijebljena je kao hidrofilno, vodonetopljivo sredstvo za kotrolu poroznosti u barijernom sloju. Promjena koncentracije celuloze značajno je utjecala na skraćenje ili produljenje vremenskog odmaka. Obloženi sustav je potom djelomično obložen s preostalom frakcijom lijeka (koja se oslobađa odmah u prvom pulsu) pomiješanom s dezintegratorom. Tableta s jezgrom i dvopulsna slojevita tableta ispitivane su in vitro

Completed Beltrami-Michell formulation for analyzing mixed boundary value problems in elasticity

In elasticity, the method of forces, wherein stress parameters are considered as the primary unknowns, is known as the Beltrami-Michell formulation (BMF). The existing BMF can only solve stress boundary value problems; it cannot handle the more prevalent displacement of mixed boundary value problems of elasticity. Therefore, this formulation, which has restricted application, could not become a true alternative to the Navier's displacement method, which can solve all three types of boundary value problems. The restrictions in the BMF have been alleviated by augmenting the classical formulation with a novel set of conditions identified as the boundary compatibility conditions. This new method, which completes the classical force formulation, has been termed the completed Beltrami-Michell formulation (CBMF). The CBMF can solve general elasticity problems with stress, displacement, and mixed boundary conditions in terms of stresses as the primary unknowns. The CBMF is derived from the stationary condition of the variational functional of the integrated force method. In the CBMF, stresses for kinematically stable structures can be obtained without any reference to the displacements either in the field or on the boundary. This paper presents the CBMF and its derivation from the variational functional of the integrated force method. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the applicability of the completed formulation for analyzing mixed boundary value problems under thermomechanical loads. Selected example problems include a cylindrical shell wherein membrane and bending responses are coupled, and a composite circular plate

Completed Beltrami-Michell Formulation for Analyzing Radially Symmetrical Bodies

A force method formulation, the completed Beltrami-Michell formulation (CBMF), has been developed for analyzing boundary value problems in elastic continua. The CBMF is obtained by augmenting the classical Beltrami-Michell formulation with novel boundary compatibility conditions. It can analyze general elastic continua with stress, displacement, or mixed boundary conditions. The CBMF alleviates the limitations of the classical formulation, which can solve stress boundary value problems only. In this report, the CBMF is specialized for plates and shells. All equations of the CBMF, including the boundary compatibility conditions, are derived from the variational formulation of the integrated force method (IFM). These equations are defined only in terms of stresses. Their solution for kinematically stable elastic continua provides stress fields without any reference to displacements. In addition, a stress function formulation for plates and shells is developed by augmenting the classical Airy's formulation with boundary compatibility conditions expressed in terms of the stress function. The versatility of the CBMF and the augmented stress function formulation is demonstrated through analytical solutions of several mixed boundary value problems. The example problems include a composite circular plate and a composite circular cylindrical shell under the simultaneous actions of mechanical and thermal loads

The high mental health burden of "Long COVID" and its association with on-going physical and respiratory symptoms in all adults discharged from hospital

Adults discharged from hospital with COVID-19 may experience 'Long COVID', where mental health symptoms are significant and linked to physical symptoms such as breathlessness. Clinicians should use brief screening questionnaires to support their recovery

Nationally representative trends and geographic variation in treatment of localized prostate cancer: the Urologic Diseases in America project

BACKGROUND: Several treatment options for clinically localized prostate cancer currently exist under the established guidelines. We aim to assess nationally representative trends in treatment over time and determine potential geographic variation using two large national claims registries. METHODS: Men with prostate cancer insured by Medicare (1998-2006) or a private insurer (Ingenix database, 2002-2006) were identified using International Classification of Diseases-9 and Current Procedural Terminology-4 codes. Geographic variation and trends in the type of treatment utilized over time were assessed. Geographic data were mapped using the GeoCommons online mapping platform. Predictors of any treatment were determined using a hierarchical generalized linear mixed model using the logit link function. RESULTS: The use of radical prostatectomy increased, 33-48%, in the privately insured i3 database while remaining stable at 12% in the Medicare population. There was a rapid uptake in the use of newer technologies over time in both the Medicare and i3 cohorts. The use of laparoscopic-assisted prostatectomy increased from 1% in 2002 to 41% in 2006 in i3 patients, whereas the incidence increased from 3% in 2002 to 35% in 2006 for Medicare patients. The use of neoadjuvant/adjuvant androgen deprivation therapy was lower in the i3 cohort and has decreased over time in both i3 and Medicare. Physician density had an impact on the type of primary treatment received in the New England region; however, this trend was not seen in the western or southern regions of the United States. CONCLUSIONS: Using two large national claims registries, we have demonstrated trends over time and substantial geographic variation in the type of primary treatment used for localized prostate cancer. Specifically, there has been a large increase in the use of newer technologies (that is, laparoscopic-assisted prostatectomy and intensity-modulated radiation therapy). These results elucidate the need for improved data collection on prostate cancer treatment outcomes to reduce unwarranted variation in care

Special Care and School Difficulties in 8-Year-Old Very Preterm Children: The Epipage Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES: To investigate school difficulties, special care and behavioral problems in 8 year-old very preterm (VPT) children. PATIENT AND METHODS: Longitudinal population-based cohort in nine regions of France of VPT children and a reference group born at 39-40 weeks of gestation (WG). The main outcome measures were information about school, special care and behavioral problems using Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire from a questionnaire to parents. RESULTS: Among the 1439 VPT children, 5% (75/1439) were in a specialised school or class, 18% (259/1439) had repeated a grade in a mainstream class and 77% (1105/1439) were in the appropriate grade-level in mainstream class; these figures were 1% (3/327) , 5% (16/327) and 94% (308/327) , respectively, for the reference group. Also, 15% (221/1435) of VPT children in a mainstream class received support at school versus 5% (16/326) of reference group. More VPT children between the ages of five and eight years received special care (55% (794/1436)) than children born at term (38% (124/325)); more VPT children (21% (292/1387)) had behavioral difficulties than the reference group (11% (35/319)). School difficulties, support at school, special care and behavioral difficulties in VPT children without neuromotor or sensory deficits varied with gestational age, socioeconomic status, and cognitive score at the age of five. CONCLUSIONS: Most 8-year-old VPT children are in mainstream schools. However, they have a high risk of difficulty in school, with more than half requiring additional support at school and/or special care. Referral to special services has increased between the ages of 5 and 8 years, but remained insufficient for those with borderline cognitive scores

Is pre-operative urodynamic bladder function the true predictor of outcome of male sling for post prostatectomy incontinence?

PURPOSE: To investigate pre-operative urodynamic parameters in male sling patients to ascertain whether this might better predict surgical outcomes and facilitate patient selection. METHODS: We performed a retrospective, case notes and video-urodynamics, review of men who underwent AdVanceXP male sling in three London hospitals between 2012 and 2019. Urodynamics were performed in all centres, while retrograde leak point pressure (RLPP) was performed in one centre. RESULTS: Successful outcome was seen in 99/130 (76%) of men who required one pad or less per day. The dry rate was 51%. Pad usage was linked to worse surgical outcomes, mean 2.6 (range 1-6.5) for success vs 3.6 (range 1-10) although the ranges were wide (p = 0.002). 24 h pad weight also reached statistical significance (p = 0.05), with a mean of 181 g for success group versus 475 g for the non-successful group. The incidence of DO in the non-successful group was significantly higher than in successful group (55% versus 29%, p = 0.0009). Bladder capacity less than 250 ml was also associated with worse outcomes (p = 0.003). Reduced compliance was not correlated with outcomes (31% for success groups vs 45% for non-successful group, p = 0.15). Preoperative RLPP was performed in 60/130 patients but did not independently reach statistical significance (p = 0.25). CONCLUSION: Urodynamic parameters related to bladder function-detrusor overactivity and reduced maximum cystometric capacity predict male sling outcomes and may help in patient selection for male sling (or sphincter) surgery; whereas urodynamic parameters of sphincter incompetency (RLPP) were not predictive. Further larger scale studies are required to confirm these findings