Millennial‐Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse

The response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to ice shelf collapse is explored with a high resolution ice sheet model. Rapid melting is applied to each of its major present day drainage basins in turn , to determine which parts of the ice sheet are most vulnerable to change in oceanic forcing, over the next 1000 years. We findthat West Antarctica can be largely deglaciated over a millenium, leading to more than two metres of sea level rise, if any of its major ice shelved disintegrated. The response of East Antarctica is more muted, but not negligible

Contrasting the modelled sensitivity of the Amundsen Sea Embayment ice streams

Present-day mass loss from the West Antarctic ice sheet is centred on the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE), primarily through ice streams, including Pine Island, Thwaites and Smith glaciers. To understand the differences in response of these ice streams, we ran a perturbed parameter ensemble, using a vertically-integrated ice flow model with adaptive mesh refinement. We generated 71 sets of three physical parameters (basal traction coefficient, ice viscosity stiffening factor and sub-shelf melt rate), which we used to simulate the ASE for 50 years. We also explored the effects of different bed geometries and basal sliding laws. The mean rate of sea-level rise across the ensemble of simulations is comparable with current observed rates for the ASE. We found evidence that grounding line dynamics are sensitive to features in the bed geometry: simulations using BedMap2 geometry resulted in a higher rate of sea-level rise than simulations using a rougher geometry, created using mass conservation. Modelled grounding-line retreat of all the three ice streams was sensitive to viscosity and basal traction, while the melt rate was more important in Pine Island and Smith glaciers, which flow through more confined ice shelves than Thwaites, which has a relatively unconfined shelf

Mapping Antarctic crevasses and their evolution with deep learning applied to satellite radar imagery

The fracturing of glaciers and ice shelves in Antarctica influences their dynamics and stability. Hence, data on the evolving distribution of crevasses are required to better understand the evolution of the ice sheet, though such data have traditionally been difficult and time-consuming to generate. Here, we present an automated method of mapping crevasses on grounded and floating ice with the application of convolutional neural networks to Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar backscatter data. We apply this method across Antarctica to images acquired between 2015 and 2022, producing a 7.5-year record of composite fracture maps at monthly intervals and 50 m spatial resolution and showing the distribution of crevasses around the majority of the ice sheet margin. We develop a method of quantifying changes to the density of ice shelf fractures using a time series of crevasse maps and show increases in crevassing on Thwaites and Pine Island ice shelves over the observational period, with observed changes elsewhere in the Amundsen Sea dominated by the advection of existing crevasses. Using stress fields computed using the BISICLES ice sheet model, we show that much of this structural change has occurred in buttressing regions of these ice shelves, indicating a recent and ongoing link between fracturing and the developing dynamics of the Amundsen Sea sector.</p

Quantifying the Impact of Bedrock Topography Uncertainty in Pine Island Glacier Projections for This Century

Abstract: The predicted Antarctic contribution to global‐mean sea‐level rise is one of the most uncertain among all major sources. Partly this is because of instability mechanisms of the ice flow over deep basins. Errors in bedrock topography can substantially impact the projected resilience of glaciers against such instabilities. Here we analyze the Pine Island Glacier topography to derive a statistical model representation. Our model allows for inhomogeneous and spatially dependent uncertainties and avoids unnecessary smoothing from spatial averaging or interpolation. A set of topography realizations is generated representing our best estimate of the topographic uncertainty in ice sheet model simulations. The bedrock uncertainty alone creates a 5%–25% uncertainty in the predicted sea level rise contribution at year 2100, depending on friction law and climate forcing. Pine Island Glacier simulations on this new set are consistent with simulations on the BedMachine reference topography but diverge from Bedmap2 simulations

Buoyant forces promote tidewater glacier iceberg calving through large basal stress concentrations

Iceberg calving parameterisations currently implemented in ice sheet models do not reproduce the full observed range of calving behaviours. For example, though buoyant forces at the ice front are known to trigger full-depth calving events on major Greenland outlet glaciers, a multi-stage iceberg calving event at Jakobshavn Isbr&aelig; is unexplained by existing models. To explain this and similar events, we propose a notch-triggered rotation mechanism, whereby a relatively small subaerial calving event triggers a larger full-depth calving event due to the abrupt increase in buoyant load and the associated stresses generated at the ice&ndash;bed interface. We investigate the notch-triggered rotation mechanism by applying a geometric perturbation to the subaerial section of the calving front in a diagnostic flow-line model of an idealised glacier snout, using the full-Stokes, finite element method code Elmer/Ice. Different sliding laws and water pressure boundary conditions are applied at the ice&ndash;bed interface. Water pressure has a big influence on the likelihood of calving, and stress concentrations large enough to open crevasses were generated in basal ice. Significantly, the location of stress concentrations produced calving events of approximately the size observed, providing support for future application of the notch-triggered rotation mechanism in ice-sheet models.</p

Ice‐marginal proglacial lakes across Greenland: Present status and a possible future

Ice-marginal lakes can affect glacier dynamics but are ignored in studies of the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and of peripheral mountain glaciers and ice caps (PGICs). Here we show that lakes occupy 10 % of the GrIS ice margin and occur on 5 % of PGICs. Ice velocity at the GrIS margin is enhanced by ∼ 25 % at lakes versus on land. Mean ice discharge into lakes is ∼ 4.9 Gt.yr, which is ∼1 % of ice discharged through marine termini. We locate thousands of subglacial overdeepenings within which 7,404 km2 of future lakes could form, all of which will be ice-marginal at some time. Future lakes in the west and east will be restricted to the margin of the GrIS and within alpine valleys, respectively. This status and possible future leads us to contend that lakes should be incorporated into projections of Greenland ice loss

Experimental design for three interrelated marine ice sheet and ocean model intercomparison projects: MISMIP v. 3 (MISMIP +), ISOMIP v. 2 (ISOMIP +) and MISOMIP v. 1 (MISOMIP1)

Coupled ice sheet–ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of marine ice sheets and tidewater glaciers, from process studies to future projections of ice mass loss and sea level rise. The Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (MISOMIP) is a community effort aimed at designing and coordinating a series of model intercomparison projects (MIPs) for model evaluation in idealized setups, model verification based on observations, and future projections for key regions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Here we describe computational experiments constituting three interrelated MIPs for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities. These consist of ice sheet experiments under the Marine Ice Sheet MIP third phase (MISMIP+), ocean experiments under the Ice Shelf-Ocean MIP second phase (ISOMIP+) and coupled ice sheet–ocean experiments under the MISOMIP first phase (MISOMIP1). All three MIPs use a shared domain with idealized bedrock topography and forcing, allowing the coupled simulations (MISOMIP1) to be compared directly to the individual component simulations (MISMIP+ and ISOMIP+). The experiments, which have qualitative similarities to Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf and the adjacent region of the Amundsen Sea, are designed to explore the effects of changes in ocean conditions, specifically the temperature at depth, on basal melting and ice dynamics. In future work, differences between model results will form the basis for the evaluation of the participating models

Increased ice flow in Western Palmer Land linked to ocean melting

A decrease in the mass and volume of Western Palmer Land has raised the prospect that ice speed has increased in this marine-based sector of Antarctica. To assess this possibility, we measure ice velocity over 25 years using satellite imagery and an optimized modeling approach. More than 30 unnamed outlet glaciers drain the 800 km coastline of Western Palmer Land at speeds ranging from 0.5 to 2.5 m/d, interspersed with near-stagnant ice. Between 1992 and 2015, most of the outlet glaciers sped up by 0.2 to 0.3 m/d, leading to a 13% increase in ice flow and a 15 km3/yr increase in ice discharge across the sector as a whole. Speedup is greatest where glaciers are grounded more than 300 m below sea level, consistent with a loss of buttressing caused by ice shelf thinning in a region of shoaling warm circumpolar water

Results of the third Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP+)

We present the result of the third Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, MISMIP+. MISMIP+ is intended to be a benchmark for ice-flow models which include fast sliding marine ice streams and floating ice shelves and in particular a treatment of viscous stress that is sufficient to model buttressing, where upstream ice flow is restrained by a downstream ice shelf. A set of idealized experiments first tests that models are able to maintain a steady state with the grounding line located on a retrograde slope due to buttressing and then explore scenarios where a reduction in that buttressing causes ice stream acceleration, thinning, and grounding line retreat. The majority of participating models passed the first test and then produced similar responses to the loss of buttressing. We find that the most important distinction between models in this particular type of simulation is in the treatment of sliding at the bed, with other distinctions - notably the difference between the simpler and more complete treatments of englacial stress but also the differences between numerical methods - taking a secondary role. © 2020 Wolters Kluwer Medknow Publications. All rights reserved

Coupling the U.K. Earth System Model to dynamic models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

The physical interactions between ice sheets and the atmosphere and ocean around them are major factors in determining the state of the climate system, yet many current Earth System models omit them entirely or treat them very simply. In this work we describe how models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been incorporated into the global U.K. Earth System model (UKESM1) via substantial technical developments with a two-way coupling that passes fluxes of energy and water, and the topography of the ice sheet surface and ice shelf base, between the component models. File-based coupling outside the running model executables is used throughout to pass information between the components, which we show is both physically appropriate and convenient within the UKESM1 structure. Ice sheet surface mass balance is computed in the land surface model using multi-layer snowpacks in subgrid-scale elevation ranges and compares well to the results of regional climate models. Ice shelf front discharge forms icebergs, which drift and melt in the ocean. Ice shelf basal mass balance is simulated using the full three-dimensional ocean model representation of the circulation in ice-shelf cavities. We show a range of example results, including from simulations with changes in ice sheet height and thickness of hundreds of metres, and changes in ice sheet grounding line and land-terminating margin of many tens of kilometres, demonstrating that the coupled model is computationally stable when subject to significant changes in ice sheet geometry