Estimating the health effects of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies: addressing parametric, model, and valuation challenges.

BACKGROUND: Policy decisions regarding climate change mitigation are increasingly incorporating the beneficial and adverse health impacts of greenhouse gas emission reduction strategies. Studies of such co-benefits and co-harms involve modeling approaches requiring a range of analytic decisions that affect the model output. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to assess analytic decisions regarding model framework, structure, choice of parameters, and handling of uncertainty when modeling health co-benefits, and to make recommendations for improvements that could increase policy uptake. METHODS: We describe the assumptions and analytic decisions underlying models of mitigation co-benefits, examining their effects on modeling outputs, and consider tools for quantifying uncertainty. DISCUSSION: There is considerable variation in approaches to valuation metrics, discounting methods, uncertainty characterization and propagation, and assessment of low-probability/high-impact events. There is also variable inclusion of adverse impacts of mitigation policies, and limited extension of modeling domains to include implementation considerations. Going forward, co-benefits modeling efforts should be carried out in collaboration with policy makers; these efforts should include the full range of positive and negative impacts and critical uncertainties, as well as a range of discount rates, and should explicitly characterize uncertainty. We make recommendations to improve the rigor and consistency of modeling of health co-benefits. CONCLUSION: Modeling health co-benefits requires systematic consideration of the suitability of model assumptions, of what should be included and excluded from the model framework, and how uncertainty should be treated. Increased attention to these and other analytic decisions has the potential to increase the policy relevance and application of co-benefits modeling studies, potentially helping policy makers to maximize mitigation potential while simultaneously improving health

Paternal obesity is associated with IGF2 hypomethylation in newborns: results from a Newborn Epigenetics Study (NEST) cohort

Data from epidemiological and animal model studies suggest that nutrition during pregnancy may affect the health status of subsequent generations. These transgenerational effects are now being explained by disruptions at the level of the epigenetic machinery. Besides in vitro environmental exposures, the possible impact on the reprogramming of methylation profiles at imprinted genes at a much earlier time point, such as during spermatogenesis or oogenesis, has not previously been considered. In this study, our aim was to determine associations between preconceptional obesity and DNA methylation profiles in the offspring, particularly at the differentially methylated regions (DMRs) of the imprinted Insulin-like Growth Factor 2 (IGF2) gene

Dessins d'enfants in N=2 generalised quiver theories

We study Grothendieck’s dessins d’enfants in the context of the N=2 supersymmetric gauge theories in (3 + 1) dimensions with product SU (2) gauge groups which have recently been considered by Gaiotto et al.. We identify the precise context in which dessins arise in these theories: they are the so-called ribbon graphs of such theories at certain isolated points in the moduli space. With this point in mind, we highlight connections to other work on trivalent dessins, gauge theories, and the modular group

Facile, productive, and cost-effective synthesis of a novel tetrazine-based iron oxide nanoparticle for targeted image contrast agents and nanomedicines

We have developed an operationally simple, time, and cost-effective protocol to produce a novel tetrazine-based iron oxide nanoparticle using commercially available and inexpensive materials. Our protocol proceeds at room temperature and uses hexafluorophosphate azabenzotriazole tetramethyl uronium, a well-known, widely used reagent for the large-scale industrial production of important pharmaceuticals. The nanoparticles obtained have a diameter range between 16 and 21 nm and showed no toxicity against endothelial cell lines. The tetrazine moiety on the nanoparticle surface could potentially allow further attachment of specific targeting vectors by using so-called copper-free click chemistry. We therefore anticipate that our protocol can represent a significant breakthrough in the future development and commercialization of improved, tissue-specific contrast agents and drug delivery for clinical diagnosis, monitoring and therapy of diseases at an asymptomatic stage

Management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in India: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: Chronic diseases are fast becoming the largest health burden in India. Despite this, their management in India has not been well studied. We aimed to systematically review the nature and efficacy of current management strategies for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in India. METHODS: We used database searches (MEDLINE, EMBASE, IndMED, CENTRAL and CINAHL), journal hand-searches, scanning of reference lists and contact with experts to identify studies for systematic review. We did not review management strategies aimed at chronic diseases more generally, nor management of acute exacerbations. Due to the heterogeneity of reviewed studies, meta-analysis was not appropriate. Thus, narrative methods were used. SETTING: India. PARTICIPANTS: All adult populations resident in India. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: 1. Trialled interventions and outcomes 2. Extent and efficacy of current management strategies 3. Above outcomes by subgroup. RESULTS: We found information regarding current management - particularly regarding the implementation of national guidelines and primary prevention - to be minimal. This led to difficulty in interpreting studies of management strategies, which were varied and generally of positive effect. Data regarding current management outcomes were very few. CONCLUSIONS: The current understanding of management strategies for COPD in India is limited due to a lack of published data. Determination of the extent of current use of management guidelines, availability and use of treatment, and current primary prevention strategies would be useful. This would also provide evidence on which to interpret existing and future studies of management outcomes and novel interventions

The cancer preventative agent resveratrol is converted to the anticancer agent piceatannol by the cytochrome P450 enzyme CYP1B1

Resveratrol is a cancer preventative agent that is found in red wine. Piceatannol is a closely related stilbene that has antileukaemic activity and is also a tyrosine kinase inhibitor. Piceatannol differs from resveratrol by having an additional aromatic hydroxy group. The enzyme CYP1B1 is overexpressed in a wide variety of human tumours and catalyses aromatic hydroxylation reactions. We report here that the cancer preventative agent resveratrol undergoes metabolism by the cytochrome P450 enzyme CYP1B1 to give a metabolite which has been identified as the known antileukaemic agent piceatannol. The metabolite was identified by high performance liquid chromatography analysis using fluorescence detection and the identity of the metabolite was further confirmed by derivatisation followed by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry studies using authentic piceatannol for comparison. This observation provides a novel explanation for the cancer preventative properties of resveratrol. It demonstrates that a natural dietary cancer preventative agent can be converted to a compound with known anticancer activity by an enzyme that is found in human tumours. Importantly this result gives insight into the functional role of CYP1B1 and provides evidence for the concept that CYP1B1 in tumours may be functioning as a growth suppressor enzyme

Transdermal oestradiol for androgen suppression in prostate cancer: long-term cardiovascular outcomes from the randomised Prostate Adenocarcinoma Transcutaneous Hormone (PATCH) trial programme

Background: Androgen suppression is a central component of prostate cancer management but causes substantial long-term toxicity. Transdermal administration of oestradiol (tE2) circumvents first-pass hepatic metabolism and, therefore, should avoid the cardiovascular toxicity seen with oral oestrogen and the oestrogen-depletion effects seen with luteinising hormone releasing hormone agonists (LHRHa). We present long-term cardiovascular follow-up data from the Prostate Adenocarcinoma Transcutaneous Hormone (PATCH) trial programme. Methods: PATCH is a seamless phase 2/3, randomised, multicentre trial programme at 52 study sites in the UK. Men with locally advanced or metastatic prostate cancer were randomly allocated (1:2 from August, 2007 then 1:1 from February, 2011) to either LHRHa according to local practice or tE2 patches (four 100 μg patches per 24 h, changed twice weekly, reducing to three patches twice weekly if castrate at 4 weeks [defined as testosterone ≤1·7 nmol/L]). Randomisation was done using a computer-based minimisation algorithm and was stratified by several factors, including disease stage, age, smoking status, and family history of cardiac disease. The primary outcome of this analysis was cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Cardiovascular events, including heart failure, acute coronary syndrome, thromboembolic stroke, and other thromboembolic events, were confirmed using predefined criteria and source data. Sudden or unexpected deaths were attributed to a cardiovascular category if a confirmatory post-mortem report was available and as other relevant events if no post-mortem report was available. PATCH is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN70406718; the study is ongoing and adaptive. Findings: Between Aug 14, 2007, and July 30, 2019, 1694 men were randomly allocated either LHRHa (n=790) or tE2 patches (n=904). Overall, median follow-up was 3·9 (IQR 2·4–7·0) years. Respective castration rates at 1 month and 3 months were 65% and 93% among patients assigned LHRHa and 83% and 93% among those allocated tE2. 157 events from 145 men met predefined cardiovascular criteria, with a further ten sudden deaths with no post-mortem report (total 167 events in 153 men). 26 (2%) of 1694 patients had fatal cardiovascular events, 15 (2%) of 790 assigned LHRHa and 11 (1%) of 904 allocated tE2. The time to first cardiovascular event did not differ between treatments (hazard ratio 1·11, 95% CI 0·80–1·53; p=0·54 [including sudden deaths without post-mortem report]; 1·20, 0·86–1·68; p=0·29 [confirmed group only]). 30 (34%) of 89 cardiovascular events in patients assigned tE2 occurred more than 3 months after tE2 was stopped or changed to LHRHa. The most frequent adverse events were gynaecomastia (all grades), with 279 (38%) events in 730 patients who received LHRHa versus 690 (86%) in 807 patients who received tE2 (p<0·0001) and hot flushes (all grades) in 628 (86%) of those who received LHRHa versus 280 (35%) who received tE2 (p<0·0001). Interpretation: Long-term data comparing tE2 patches with LHRHa show no evidence of a difference between treatments in cardiovascular mortality or morbidity. Oestrogens administered transdermally should be reconsidered for androgen suppression in the management of prostate cancer. Funding: Cancer Research UK, and Medical Research Council Clinical Trials Unit at University College London

The Main Belt Comets and ice in the Solar System

We review the evidence for buried ice in the asteroid belt; specifically the questions around the so-called Main Belt Comets (MBCs). We summarise the evidence for water throughout the Solar System, and describe the various methods for detecting it, including remote sensing from ultraviolet to radio wavelengths. We review progress in the first decade of study of MBCs, including observations, modelling of ice survival, and discussion on their origins. We then look at which methods will likely be most effective for further progress, including the key challenge of direct detection of (escaping) water in these bodies

NMR-Based Prostate Cancer Metabolomics

Author's accepted version (postprint).This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Springer in Methods in Molecular Biology on 22 May 2018.Available online: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-7845-8_14acceptedVersio

Utilisation of an operative difficulty grading scale for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background A reliable system for grading operative difficulty of laparoscopic cholecystectomy would standardise description of findings and reporting of outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate a difficulty grading system (Nassar scale), testing its applicability and consistency in two large prospective datasets. Methods Patient and disease-related variables and 30-day outcomes were identified in two prospective cholecystectomy databases: the multi-centre prospective cohort of 8820 patients from the recent CholeS Study and the single-surgeon series containing 4089 patients. Operative data and patient outcomes were correlated with Nassar operative difficultly scale, using Kendall’s tau for dichotomous variables, or Jonckheere–Terpstra tests for continuous variables. A ROC curve analysis was performed, to quantify the predictive accuracy of the scale for each outcome, with continuous outcomes dichotomised, prior to analysis. Results A higher operative difficulty grade was consistently associated with worse outcomes for the patients in both the reference and CholeS cohorts. The median length of stay increased from 0 to 4 days, and the 30-day complication rate from 7.6 to 24.4% as the difficulty grade increased from 1 to 4/5 (both p < 0.001). In the CholeS cohort, a higher difficulty grade was found to be most strongly associated with conversion to open and 30-day mortality (AUROC = 0.903, 0.822, respectively). On multivariable analysis, the Nassar operative difficultly scale was found to be a significant independent predictor of operative duration, conversion to open surgery, 30-day complications and 30-day reintervention (all p < 0.001). Conclusion We have shown that an operative difficulty scale can standardise the description of operative findings by multiple grades of surgeons to facilitate audit, training assessment and research. It provides a tool for reporting operative findings, disease severity and technical difficulty and can be utilised in future research to reliably compare outcomes according to case mix and intra-operative difficulty