Targeting 1.5 degrees with the global carbon footprint of the Australian Capital Territory

In 2019 the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) government stated an ambition to prioritise reduction of Scope 3 greenhouse gas emissions, the size of which had not been fully quantified previously. This study calculated the total carbon footprint of the ACT in 2018, including Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions and modelled scenarios to reduce all emissions in line with a 1.5 °C target approach. This is the first time a multi-scale analysis of local, sub-national and international supply chains has been undertaken for a city, using a nested and trade-adjusted global multi-region input-output model. This allowed for the quantification of global origins and destinations of emissions, which showed that the 2018 carbon footprint for the ACT was approximately 34.7 t CO2-eq/cap, with 83% attributed to Scope 3. Main contributions came from transport, electricity, manufacturing and public administration and safety, with emissions generated primarily in Australian States and Territories. Modelling in accordance with a 1.5 °C warming scenario showed a plausible reduction to 5.2 t CO2-eq/cap by 2045 (excluding offsets or carbon dioxide removal technologies), with remaining emissions predominantly embodied in international supply chains. This study demonstrates the radical changes required by a wealthy Australian city to achieve 1.5 °C compliance and identifies sectors and supply chains for prioritising policies to best achieve this outcome

Prolonged Decay and CP-asymmetry

Time evolution of unstable particles that occur in the expanding universe is investigated. The off-shell effect not included in the Boltzmann-like equation is important for the decay process when the temperature becomes much below the mass of unstable particle. When the off-shell effect is taken into account, the thermal abundance of unstable particles at low temperatures has a power law behavior of temperature $T$, $\frac{\Gamma}{M}(\frac{T}{M})^{\alpha + 1}$ unlike the Boltzmann suppressed $e^{-M/T}$, with the power $\alpha$ related to the spectral rise near the threshold of the decay and with $\Gamma$ the decay rate. Moreover, the relaxation time towards the thermal value is not governed by the exponential law; instead, it is the power law of time. The evolution equation for the occupation number and the number density of the unstable particle is derived, when both of these effects, along with the cosmic expansion, are included. We also critically examine how the scattering off thermal particles may affect the off-shell effect to the unstable particle. As an application showing the importance of the off-shell effect we compute the time evolution of the baryon asymmetry generated by the heavy $X$ boson decay. It is shown that the out-of equilibrium kinematics previously discussed is considerably changed.Comment: 33 pages, LATEX file with 9 PS figure

Stable isotope analysis provides new information on winter habitat use of declining avian migrants that is relevant to their conservation

Winter habitat use and the magnitude of migratory connectivity are important parameters when assessing drivers of the marked declines in avian migrants. Such information is unavailable for most species. We use a stable isotope approach to assess these factors for three declining African-Eurasian migrants whose winter ecology is poorly known: wood warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix, house martin Delichon urbicum and common swift Apus apus. Spatially segregated breeding wood warbler populations (sampled across a 800 km transect), house martins and common swifts (sampled across a 3,500 km transect) exhibited statistically identical intra-specific carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios in winter grown feathers. Such patterns are compatible with a high degree of migratory connectivity, but could arise if species use isotopically similar resources at different locations. Wood warbler carbon isotope ratios are more depleted than typical for African-Eurasian migrants and are compatible with use of moist lowland forest. The very limited variance in these ratios indicates specialisation on isotopically restricted resources, which may drive the similarity in wood warbler populations' stable isotope ratios and increase susceptibility to environmental change within its wintering grounds. House martins were previously considered to primarily use moist montane forest during the winter, but this seems unlikely given the enriched nature of their carbon isotope ratios. House martins use a narrower isotopic range of resources than the common swift, indicative of increased specialisation or a relatively limited wintering range; both factors could increase house martins' vulnerability to environmental change. The marked variance in isotope ratios within each common swift population contributes to the lack of population specific signatures and indicates that the species is less vulnerable to environmental change in sub-Saharan Africa than our other focal species. Our findings demonstrate how stable isotope research can contribute to understanding avian migrants' winter ecology and conservation status

Knowledge and perceptions of the risks of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs among orthopaedic patients in Thailand

Background There is a high incidence of adverse effects from non-steroidal antiinflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) in Thailand, but patients’ perceptions and knowledge of NSAID risks is unknown. Objective This study aims to assess patients’ perceptions and knowledge of NSAID risks and factors affecting them. Setting University hospital in North-East of Thailand. Method A Cross-sectional study conducted over 4 months, using a self-administered questionnaire. Patients prescribed NSAIDs for at least one month duration from orthopaedic clinic were recruited using systematic random sampling. Main outcome measure Patients’ perceptions on NSAID risks, knowledge on risk factors, and their associated factors. Results A total of 474 questionnaires were assessed. Overall perceptions of risks was low (scoring below five on a 0–10 visual analogue scale), with risks associated with the renal system scoring highest. Perceived risk of gastrointestinal problems differed between patients using non-selective and selective NSAIDs (3.47 ± 2.75 vs 2.06 ± 2.98; P < 0.001). Receiving side effect information from a health professional was associated with higher risk perception. Most patients (80 %) identified high doses, renal disease and gastrointestinal ulcer increased risks of NSAIDs, but fewer than half recognized that use in the elderly, multiple NSAID use, drinking, hypertension and cardiovascular disease also increased risk of adverse events. Having underlying diseases and receiving side effect information were associated with 1.6–2.0 fold increased knowledge of NSAID risks. Conclusion Perceptions and knowledge concerning NSAID risks was generally low in Thai patients, but higher in those who had received side effect information. Risk-related information should be widely provided, especially in high-risk patients

Placebo Adherence and Its Association with Morbidity and Mortality in the Studies of Left Ventricular Dysfunction

A provocative finding from several double-blind clinical trials has been the association between greater adherence to placebo study medication and better health outcomes. We used data from the Studies of Left Ventricular Dysfunction (SOLVD) Treatment Trial (SOLVD-TT) and the SOLVD Prevention Trial (SOLVD-PT) to examine whether such associations could be validated and to examine several sources of bias and potential confounding. Survival analytic methods were used to estimate the association between placebo adherence and several health outcomes, employing a number of modeling techniques to test for the existence of alternative explanations for the association. Higher adherence was defined as having taken ≥75% of prescribed study medication. Higher placebo adherence was associated with improved overall survival in both SOLVD-TT and SOLVD-PT [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.52, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.35 to 0.79 and HR = 0.52, 95%CI: 0.38 to 0.71, respectively]. Associations were similar for fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular or coronary heart disease events. Adjustment for both modifiable and non-modifiable cardiac risk factors (including age, gender, diabetes, blood pressure, smoking, weight, alcohol use, and levels of education) had minimal effect on the strength of the association. Little evidence of bias was found as an explanation for this relationship. In these two trials, better adherence to placebo was associated with markedly superior health outcomes, including total in-study mortality and incident cardiovascular events. No important confounders were identified. These data suggest there may exist strong but unrecognized determinants of health outcomes for which placebo adherence is a marker

A micro costing of NHS cancer genetic services

This paper presents the first full micro costing of a commonly used cancer genetic counselling and testing protocol used in the UK. Costs were estimated for the Cardiff clinic of the Cancer Genetics Service in Wales by issuing a questionnaire to all staff, conducting an audit of clinic rooms and equipment and obtaining gross unit costs from the finance department. A total of 22 distinct event pathways were identified for patients at risk of developing breast, ovarian, breast and ovarian or colorectal cancer. The mean cost per patient were £97–£151 for patients at moderate risk, £975–£3072 for patients at high risk of developing colorectal cancer and £675–£2909 for patients at high risk of developing breast or ovarian cancer. The most expensive element of cancer genetic services was labour. Labour costs were dependent upon the amount of labour, staff grade, number of counsellors used and the proportion of staff time devoted to indirect patient contact. With the growing demand for cancer genetic services and the growing number of national and regional cancer genetic centers, there is a need for the different protocols being used to be thoroughly evaluated in terms of costs and outcomes

A search for the decay modes B+/- to h+/- tau l

We present a search for the lepton flavor violating decay modes B+/- to h+/- tau l (h= K,pi; l= e,mu) using the BaBar data sample, which corresponds to 472 million BBbar pairs. The search uses events where one B meson is fully reconstructed in one of several hadronic final states. Using the momenta of the reconstructed B, h, and l candidates, we are able to fully determine the tau four-momentum. The resulting tau candidate mass is our main discriminant against combinatorial background. We see no evidence for B+/- to h+/- tau l decays and set a 90% confidence level upper limit on each branching fraction at the level of a few times 10^-5.Comment: 15 pages, 7 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Estimating the Diets of Animals Using Stable Isotopes and a Comprehensive Bayesian Mixing Model

Using stable isotope mixing models (SIMMs) as a tool to investigate the foraging ecology of animals is gaining popularity among researchers. As a result, statistical methods are rapidly evolving and numerous models have been produced to estimate the diets of animals—each with their benefits and their limitations. Deciding which SIMM to use is contingent on factors such as the consumer of interest, its food sources, sample size, the familiarity a user has with a particular framework for statistical analysis, or the level of inference the researcher desires to make (e.g., population- or individual-level). In this paper, we provide a review of commonly used SIMM models and describe a comprehensive SIMM that includes all features commonly used in SIMM analysis and two new features. We used data collected in Yosemite National Park to demonstrate IsotopeR's ability to estimate dietary parameters. We then examined the importance of each feature in the model and compared our results to inferences from commonly used SIMMs. IsotopeR's user interface (in R) will provide researchers a user-friendly tool for SIMM analysis. The model is also applicable for use in paleontology, archaeology, and forensic studies as well as estimating pollution inputs