Simpson's paradox visualized: The example of the Rosiglitazone meta-analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Simpson's paradox is sometimes referred to in the areas of epidemiology and clinical research. It can also be found in meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials. However, though readers are able to recalculate examples from hypothetical as well as real data, they may have problems to easily figure where it emerges from.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>First, two kinds of plots are proposed to illustrate the phenomenon graphically, a scatter plot and a line graph. Subsequently, these can be overlaid, resulting in a overlay plot. The plots are applied to the recent large meta-analysis of adverse effects of rosiglitazone on myocardial infarction and to an example from the literature. A large set of meta-analyses is screened for further examples.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>As noted earlier by others, occurrence of Simpson's paradox in the meta-analytic setting, if present, is associated with imbalance of treatment arm size. This is well illustrated by the proposed plots. The rosiglitazone meta-analysis shows an effect reversion if all trials are pooled. In a sample of 157 meta-analyses, nine showed an effect reversion after pooling, though non-significant in all cases.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The plots give insight on how the imbalance of trial arm size works as a confounder, thus producing Simpson's paradox. Readers can see why meta-analytic methods must be used and what is wrong with simple pooling.</p

Chronic excitotoxin-induced axon degeneration in a compartmented neuronal culture model

Glutamate excitotoxicity is a major pathogenic process implicated in many neurodegenerative conditions, including AD (Alzheimer's disease) and following traumatic brain injury. Occurring predominantly from over-stimulation of ionotropic glutamate receptors located along dendrites, excitotoxic axonal degeneration may also occur in white matter tracts. Recent identification of axonal glutamate receptor subunits within axonal nanocomplexes raises the possibility of direct excitotoxic effects on axons. Individual neuronal responses to excitotoxicity are highly dependent on the complement of glutamate receptors expressed by the cell, and the localization of the functional receptors. To enable isolation of distal axons and targeted excitotoxicity, murine cortical neuron cultures were prepared in compartmented microfluidic devices, such that distal axons were isolated from neuronal cell bodies. Within the compartmented culture system, cortical neurons developed to relative maturity at 11 DIV (days in vitro) as demonstrated by the formation of dendritic spines and clustering of the presynaptic protein synaptophysin. The isolated distal axons retained growth cone structures in the absence of synaptic targets, and expressed glutamate receptor subunits. Glutamate treatment (100 μM) to the cell body chamber resulted in widespread degeneration within this chamber and degeneration of distal axons in the other chamber. Glutamate application to the distal axon chamber triggered a lesser degree of axonal degeneration without degenerative changes in the untreated somal chamber. These data indicate that in addition to current mechanisms of indirect axonal excitotoxicity, the distal axon may be a primary target for excitotoxicity in neurodegenerative conditions

Incidence of Human Herpesvirus 8 (HHV-8) infection among HIV-uninfected individuals at high risk for sexually transmitted infections

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The occurrence of, and risk factors for, HHV-8 infection have yet to be definitively determined, particularly among heterosexual individuals with at-risk behavior for sexually transmitted infections (STI). The objective of this study was to estimate the incidence and determinants of HHV-8 infection among HIV-uninfected individuals repeatedly attending an urban STI clinic.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Sera from consecutive HIV-uninfected individuals repeatedly tested for HIV-1 antibodies were additionally tested for HHV-8 antibodies using an immunofluorescence assay. To identify determinants of HHV-8 infection, a nested case-control study and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Sera from 456 HIV-uninfected individuals (224 multiple-partner heterosexuals and 232 men who have sex with men (MSM]) were identified for inclusion in the study. The HHV-8 seroprevalence at enrollment was 9.4% (21/224; 95% C.I.: 6.0–14.2%) among heterosexuals with multiple partners and 22.0% (51/232; 95% C.I.: 16.9–28.0%) among MSM. Among the 203 multiple-partner heterosexuals and 181 MSM who were initially HHV-8-negative, 17 (IR = 3.0/100 p-y, 95% C.I.: 1.9 – 4.8) and 21 (IR = 3.3/100 p-y, 95% C.I:.2.1 – 5.1) seroconversions occurred, respectively. HHV-8 seroconversion tended to be associated with a high number of sexual partners during the follow-up among MSM (> 10 partners: AOR = 3.32 95% CI:0.89–12.46) and among the multiple-partner heterosexuals (> 10 partner; AOR = 3.46, 95% CI:0.42–28.2). Moreover, among MSM, HHV-8 seroconversion tended to be associated with STI (AOR = 1.80 95%CI: 0.52–7.96).</p> <p>During the study period the HIV-1 incidence was lower than that of HHV-8 among both groups (0.89/100 p-y among MSM and 0.95/100 p-y among multiple-partner heterosexuals).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The large difference between the incidence of HHV-8 and the incidence of HIV-1 and other STIs may suggest that the circulation of HHV-8 is sustained by practices other than classical at-risk sexual behavior.</p

Efficiency of primary saliva secretion: an analysis of parameter dependence in dynamic single-cell and acinus models, with application to aquaporin knockout studies

Secretion from the salivary glands is driven by osmosis following the establishment of osmotic gradients between the lumen, the cell and the interstitium by active ion transport. We consider a dynamic model of osmotically driven primary saliva secretion and use singular perturbation approaches and scaling assumptions to reduce the model. Our analysis shows that isosmotic secretion is the most efficient secretion regime and that this holds for single isolated cells and for multiple cells assembled into an acinus. For typical parameter variations, we rule out any significant synergistic effect on total water secretion of an acinar arrangement of cells about a single shared lumen. Conditions for the attainment of isosmotic secretion are considered, and we derive an expression for how the concentration gradient between the interstitium and the lumen scales with water- and chloride-transport parameters. Aquaporin knockout studies are interpreted in the context of our analysis and further investigated using simulations of transport efficiency with different membrane water permeabilities. We conclude that recent claims that aquaporin knockout studies can be interpreted as evidence against a simple osmotic mechanism are not supported by our work. Many of the results that we obtain are independent of specific transporter details, and our analysis can be easily extended to apply to models that use other proposed ionic mechanisms of saliva secretion

Pretest probability assessment derived from attribute matching

BACKGROUND: Pretest probability (PTP) assessment plays a central role in diagnosis. This report compares a novel attribute-matching method to generate a PTP for acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We compare the new method with a validated logistic regression equation (LRE). METHODS: Eight clinical variables (attributes) were chosen by classification and regression tree analysis of a prospectively collected reference database of 14,796 emergency department (ED) patients evaluated for possible ACS. For attribute matching, a computer program identifies patients within the database who have the exact profile defined by clinician input of the eight attributes. The novel method was compared with the LRE for ability to produce PTP estimation <2% in a validation set of 8,120 patients evaluated for possible ACS and did not have ST segment elevation on ECG. 1,061 patients were excluded prior to validation analysis because of ST-segment elevation (713), missing data (77) or being lost to follow-up (271). RESULTS: In the validation set, attribute matching produced 267 unique PTP estimates [median PTP value 6%, 1(st)–3(rd )quartile 1–10%] compared with the LRE, which produced 96 unique PTP estimates [median 24%, 1(st)–3(rd )quartile 10–30%]. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.74 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.82) for the attribute matching curve and 0.68 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.77) for LRE. The attribute matching system categorized 1,670 (24%, 95% CI = 23–25%) patients as having a PTP < 2.0%; 28 developed ACS (1.7% 95% CI = 1.1–2.4%). The LRE categorized 244 (4%, 95% CI = 3–4%) with PTP < 2.0%; four developed ACS (1.6%, 95% CI = 0.4–4.1%). CONCLUSION: Attribute matching estimated a very low PTP for ACS in a significantly larger proportion of ED patients compared with a validated LRE

Performance of CMS muon reconstruction in pp collision events at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

The performance of muon reconstruction, identification, and triggering in CMS has been studied using 40 inverse picobarns of data collected in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV at the LHC in 2010. A few benchmark sets of selection criteria covering a wide range of physics analysis needs have been examined. For all considered selections, the efficiency to reconstruct and identify a muon with a transverse momentum pT larger than a few GeV is above 95% over the whole region of pseudorapidity covered by the CMS muon system, abs(eta) < 2.4, while the probability to misidentify a hadron as a muon is well below 1%. The efficiency to trigger on single muons with pT above a few GeV is higher than 90% over the full eta range, and typically substantially better. The overall momentum scale is measured to a precision of 0.2% with muons from Z decays. The transverse momentum resolution varies from 1% to 6% depending on pseudorapidity for muons with pT below 100 GeV and, using cosmic rays, it is shown to be better than 10% in the central region up to pT = 1 TeV. Observed distributions of all quantities are well reproduced by the Monte Carlo simulation.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO