Subseasonal Vacillations in the Winter Stratosphere

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this recordData availability: Data and code used to produce all figures and tables can be found at this site: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3675313Simple models of wave-mean flow interaction in the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere suggest the existence of subseasonal vacillations in the strength of the polar vortex. Here, we define a sinusoidal fit to the daily deseasonalized stratospheric wind. A suitable fixed period and amplitude for the sine waves is identified. Their mean value, equivalent to polar vortex strength, and phase, equivalent to the timing of sudden stratospheric warmings during winter, varies from year to year. These vacillations explain much of the subseasonal and interannual variability in the monthly mean vortex strength and, consistent with wave-mean flow interaction theory, their amplitude correlates positively with the magnitude of winter mean planetary wave driving. Furthermore, they allow skillful prediction of the vortex strength one month ahead. Identifying and understanding this subseasonal variability has potential implications for winter seasonal forecasts, as the December–February mean behavior may miss important subseasonal events.National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNewton Fun

Possible impacts of a future grand solar minimum on climate: Stratospheric and global circulation changes.

This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Wiley via http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022022A future decline in solar activity would not offset projected global warmingA future decline in solar activity could have larger regional effects in winterTop-down mechanism contributes to Northern Hemisphere regional response.LJG and ACM were supported by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science's Climate Directorate. ACM also acknowledges support from the ERC ACCI project no. 267760 and an AXA Postdoctoral Fellowship. SI and AAS were supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). LJG and JAA were supported by a grant from the National Environmental Research Council

The cost-effectiveness of early noninvasive ventilation for ALS patients

BACKGROUND: Optimal timing of noninvasive positive pressure ventilation (NIPPV) initiation in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is unknown, but NIPPV appears to benefit ALS patients who are symptomatic from pulmonary insufficiency. This has prompted research proposals of earlier NIPPV initiation in the ALS disease course in an attempt to further improve ALS patient quality of life and perhaps survival. We therefore used a cost-utility analysis to determine a priori what magnitude of health-related quality of life (HRQL) improvement early NIPPV initiation would need to achieve to be cost-effective in a future clinical trial. METHODS: Using a Markov decision analytic model we calculated the benefit in health-state utility that NIPPV initiated at ALS diagnosis must achieve to be cost-effective. The primary outcome was the percent utility gained through NIPPV in relation to two common willingness-to-pay thresholds: $50,000 and$100,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). RESULTS: Our results indicate that if NIPPV begun at the time of diagnosis improves ALS patient HRQL as little as 13.5%, it would be a cost-effective treatment. Tolerance of NIPPV (assuming a 20% improvement in HRQL) would only need to exceed 18% in our model for treatment to remain cost-effective using a conservative willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000 per QALY. CONCLUSION: If early use of NIPPV in ALS patients is shown to improve HRQL in future studies, it is likely to be a cost-effective treatment. Clinical trials of NIPPV begun at the time of ALS diagnosis are therefore warranted from a cost-effectiveness standpoint

Processes Controlling Tropical Tropopause Temperature and Stratospheric Water Vapor in Climate Models

A warm bias in tropical tropopause temperature is found in the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM), in common with most models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5). Key dynamical, microphysical, and radiative processes influencing the tropical tropopause temperature and lower-stratospheric water vapor concentrations in climate models are investigated using the MetUM. A series of sensitivity experiments are run to separate the effects of vertical advection, ice optical and microphysical properties, convection, cirrus clouds, and atmospheric composition on simulated tropopause temperature and lower-stratospheric water vapor concentrations in the tropics. The numerical accuracy of the vertical advection, determined in the MetUM by the choice of interpolation and conservation schemes used, is found to be particularly important. Microphysical and radiative processes are found to influence stratospheric water vapor both through modifying the tropical tropopause temperature and through modifying upper-tropospheric water vapor concentrations, allowing more water vapor to be advected into the stratosphere. The representation of any of the processes discussed can act to significantly reduce biases in tropical tropopause temperature and stratospheric water vapor in a physical way, thereby improving climate simulations

Northern winter climate change: assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere-troposphere coupling

Journal ArticlePublished versionFuture changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere-stratosphere circulation. Here we assess northern winter stratospheric change and its potential to influence surface climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. In the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the CMIP5 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Comparable results are also found in the 1% CO2 increase per year projections, indicating that the stratospheric easterly change is common feature in future climate projections. This stratospheric wind change, however, shows a signi fi cant spread among the models. By using linear regression, we quantify the impact of tropical upper troposphere warming, polar amplification, and the stratospheric wind change on SLP. We find that the intermodel spread in stratospheric wind change contributes substantially to the intermodel spread in Arctic SLP change. The role of the stratosphere in determining part of the spread in SLP change is supported by the fact that the SLP change lags the stratospheric zonally averaged wind change. Taken together, these findings provide further support for the importance of simulating the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, to narrow the uncertainty in the future projection of tropospheric circulation changes

Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings

Advances in seasonal forecasting have brought widespread socio-economic benefits. However, seasonal forecast skill in the extratropics is relatively modest, prompting the seasonal forecasting community to search for additional sources of predictability. For over a decade it has been suggested that knowledge of the state of the stratosphere can act as a source of enhanced seasonal predictability; long-lived circulation anomalies in the lower stratosphere that follow stratospheric sudden warmings are associated with circulation anomalies in the troposphere that can last up to two months. Here, we show by performing retrospective ensemble model forecasts that such enhanced predictability can be realized in a dynamical seasonal forecast system with a good representation of the stratosphere. When initialized at the onset date of stratospheric sudden warmings, the model forecasts faithfully reproduce the observed mean tropospheric conditions in the months following the stratospheric sudden warmings. Compared with an equivalent set of forecasts that are not initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings, we document enhanced forecast skill for atmospheric circulation patterns, surface temperatures over northern Russia and eastern Canada and North Atlantic precipitation. We suggest that seasonal forecast systems initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings are likely to yield significantly greater forecast skill in some regions

Tropospheric jet response to Antarctic ozone depletion: An update with Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) models

The Southern Hemisphere (SH) zonal-mean circulation change in response to Antarctic ozone depletion is re-visited by examining a set of the latest model simulations archived for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project. All models reasonably well reproduce Antarctic ozone depletion in the late 20th century. The related SH-summer circulation changes, such as a poleward intensification of westerly jet and a poleward expansion of the Hadley cell, are also well captured. All experiments exhibit quantitatively the same multi-model mean trend, irrespective of whether the ocean is coupled or prescribed. Results are also quantitatively similar to those derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) high-top model simulations in which the stratospheric ozone is mostly prescribed with monthly- and zonally-averaged values. These results suggest that the ozone-hole-induced SH-summer circulation changes are robust across the models irrespective of the specific chemistry-atmosphere-ocean coupling

Long-range predictability of extratropical climate and the length of day

This is the final version. Available on open access from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordData availability: Atmospheric angular momentum data from the model predictions are available from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7003975. Observed length-of-day data are available from https://www.iers.org/IERS/EN/Home/home_node.html.Code availability: The code we used to calculate atmospheric angular momentum is available from https://zenodo.org/record/7003975Angular momentum is fundamental to the structure and variability of the atmosphere and therefore has an important influence on regional weather and climate. Total atmospheric angular momentum is also directly related to the rotation rate of the Earth and, hence, the length of day. However, the long-range predictability of fluctuations in the length of the day and atmospheric angular momentum is unknown. Here we show that fluctuations in atmospheric angular momentum and the length of day are predictable out to more than a year ahead and that this provides an atmospheric source of long-range predictability for surface climate. Using ensemble forecasts from a dynamical climate model, we demonstrate long-range predictability of signals in the atmospheric angular momentum field that propagate slowly and coherently polewards due to wave–mean flow interaction within the atmosphere. These predictable signals are also shown to precede changes in extratropical climate via the North Atlantic Oscillation and the extratropical jet stream. These results extend the lead time for length-of-day predictions, provide a source of long-range predictability from within the atmosphere and provide a link between geodesy and climate prediction.Newton FundMet Office Hadley Centre Climate ProgrammeEuropean Union Horizon 2020Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)China National Key Research and Development Program on Monitoring, Early Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disaste

Multi-model estimates of atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived ozone-depleting substances: present and future

We have diagnosed the lifetimes of long-lived source gases emitted at the surface and removed in the stratosphere using six three-dimensional chemistry-climate models and a two-dimensional model. The models all used the same standard photochemical data. We investigate the effect of different definitions of lifetimes, including running the models with both mixing ratio (MBC) and flux (FBC) boundary conditions. Within the same model, the lifetimes diagnosed by different methods agree very well. Using FBCs versus MBCs leads to a different tracer burden as the implied lifetime contained in the MBC value does not necessarily match a model's own calculated lifetime. In general, there are much larger differences in the lifetimes calculated by different models, the main causes of which are variations in the modeled rates of ascent and horizontal mixing in the tropical midlower stratosphere. The model runs have been used to compute instantaneous and steady state lifetimes. For chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) their atmospheric distribution was far from steady state in their growth phase through to the 1980s, and the diagnosed instantaneous lifetime is accordingly much longer. Following the cessation of emissions, the resulting decay of CFCs is much closer to steady state. For 2100 conditions the model circulation speeds generally increase, but a thicker ozone layer due to recovery and climate change reduces photolysis rates. These effects compensate so the net impact on modeled lifetimes is small. For future assessments of stratospheric ozone, use of FBCs would allow a consistent balance between rate of CFC removal and model circulation rate

Nuclear poly(ADP-ribose) activity is a therapeutic target in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Abstract Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a devastating and fatal motor neuron disease. Diagnosis typically occurs in the fifth decade of life and the disease progresses rapidly leading to death within ~ 2–5 years of symptomatic onset. There is no cure, and the few available treatments offer only a modest extension in patient survival. A protein central to ALS is the nuclear RNA/DNA-binding protein, TDP-43. In > 95% of ALS patients, TDP-43 is cleared from the nucleus and forms phosphorylated protein aggregates in the cytoplasm of affected neurons and glia. We recently defined that poly(ADP-ribose) (PAR) activity regulates TDP-43-associated toxicity. PAR is a posttranslational modification that is attached to target proteins by PAR polymerases (PARPs). PARP-1 and PARP-2 are the major enzymes that are active in the nucleus. Here, we uncovered that the motor neurons of the ALS spinal cord were associated with elevated nuclear PAR, suggesting elevated PARP activity. Veliparib, a small-molecule inhibitor of nuclear PARP-1/2, mitigated the formation of cytoplasmic TDP-43 aggregates in mammalian cells. In primary spinal-cord cultures from rat, Veliparib also inhibited TDP-43-associated neuronal death. These studies uncover that PAR activity is misregulated in the ALS spinal cord, and a small-molecular inhibitor of PARP-1/2 activity may have therapeutic potential in the treatment of ALS and related disorders associated with abnormal TDP-43 homeostasis