Paleoearthquakes and slip rates of the North Tabriz Fault, NW Iran: preliminary results

The North Tabriz Fault is a major seismogenic fault in NW Iran. The last damaging earthquakes on this fault occurred in 1721, rupturing the southeastern fault segment, and in 1780, rupturing the northwestern one. The understanding of the seismic behavior of this fault is critical for assessing the hazard in Tabriz, one of the major cities of Iran; the city suffered major damage in both the 1721 and 1780 events. Our study area is located on the northwestern fault segment, west of the city of Tabriz. We performed geomorphic and trenching investigations, which allowed us to recognize evidence for repeated faulting events since the Late Pleistocene. From the trenches, we found evidence for at least four events during the past 3.6 ka, the most recent one being the 1780 earthquake. On the basis of different approaches, horizontal slip per event and slip rates are found in the ranges of 4 ± 0.5 m and 3.1-6.4 mm/yr, respectively. We also attempted an estimate of the average recurrence intervals which appears to be in the range 350-1430 years, with a mean recurrence interval of 821 ± 176 years. On the basis of these results, the northwestern segment of the North Tabriz Fault does not appear to present a major seismic potential for the near future, however, not enough is known about the southeastern segment of the fault to make a comparable conclusion

A comparison of the effectiveness of cognitive behavioural interventions based on delivery features for elevated symptoms of depression in adolescents: A systematic review

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this record. Data availability statement: The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.Background Depression is a public health problem and common amongst adolescents. Cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) is widely used to treat adolescent depression but existing research does not provide clear conclusions regarding the relative effectiveness of different delivery modalities. Objectives The primary aim is to estimate the relative efficacy of different modes of CBT delivery compared with each other and control conditions for reducing depressive symptoms in adolescents. The secondary aim is to compare the different modes of delivery with regard to intervention completion/attrition (a proxy for intervention acceptability). Search Methods The Cochrane Depression, Anxiety and Neurosis Clinical Trials Register was searched in April 2020. MEDLINE, PsycInfo, EMBASE, four other electronic databases, the CENTRAL trial registry, Google Scholar and Google were searched in November 2020, together with reference checking, citation searching and hand-searching of two databases. Selection Criteria Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of CBT interventions (irrespective of delivery mode) to reduce symptoms of depression in young people aged 10–19 years with clinically relevant symptoms or diagnosis of depression were included. Data Collection and Analysis Screening and data extraction were completed by two authors independently, with discrepancies addressed by a third author. CBT interventions were categorised as follows: group CBT, individual CBT, remote CBT, guided self-help, and unguided self-help. Effect on depressive symptom score was estimated across validated self-report measures using Hedges' g standardised mean difference. Acceptability was estimated based on loss to follow-up as an odds ratio. Treatment rankings were developed using the surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA). Pairwise meta-analyses were conducted using random effects models where there were two or more head-to-head trials. Network analyses were conducted using random effects models. Main Results Sixty-eight studies were included in the review. The mean age of participants ranged from 10 to 19.5 years, and on average 60% of participants were female. The majority of studies were conducted in schools (28) or universities (6); other settings included primary care, clinical settings and the home. The number of CBT sessions ranged from 1 to 16, the frequency of delivery from once every 2 weeks to twice a week and the duration of each session from 20 min to 2 h. The risk of bias was low across all domains for 23 studies, 24 studies had some concerns and the remaining 21 were assessed to be at high risk of bias. Sixty-two RCTs (representing 6435 participants) were included in the pairwise and network meta-analyses for post-intervention depressive symptom score at post-intervention. All pre-specified treatment and control categories were represented by at least one RCT. Although most CBT approaches, except remote CBT, demonstrated superiority over no intervention, no approaches performed clearly better than or equivalent to another. The highest and lowest ranking interventions were guided self-help (SUCRA 83%) and unguided self-help (SUCRA 51%), respectively (very low certainty in treatment ranking). Nineteen RCTs (3260 participants) were included in the pairwise and network meta-analyses for 6 to 12 month follow-up depressive symptom score. Neither guided self-help nor remote CBT were evaluated in the RCTs for this time point. Effects were generally attenuated for 6- to 12-month outcomes compared to posttest. No interventions demonstrated superiority to no intervention, although unguided self-help and group CBT both demonstrated superiority compared to TAU. No CBT approach demonstrated clear superiority over another. The highest and lowest ranking approaches were unguided self-help and individual CBT, respectively. Sixty-two RCTs (7347 participants) were included in the pairwise and network meta-analyses for intervention acceptability. All pre-specified treatment and control categories were represented by at least one RCT. Although point estimates tended to favour no intervention, no active treatments were clearly inferior. No CBT approach demonstrated clear superiority over another. The highest and lowest ranking active interventions were individual CBT and group CBT respectively. Pairwise meta-analytic findings were similar to those of the network meta-analysis for all analyses. There may be age-based subgroup effects on post-intervention depressive symptoms. Using the no intervention control group as the reference, the magnitudes of effects appear to be larger for the oldest age categories compared to the other subgroups for each given comparison. However, they were generally less precise and formal testing only indicated a significant difference for group CBT. Findings were robust to pre-specified sensitivity analyses separating out the type of placebo and excluding cluster-RCTs, as well as an additional analysis excluding studies where we had imputed standard deviations. Authors' Conclusions At posttreatment, all active treatments (group CBT, individual CBT, guided self-help, and unguided self-help) except for remote CBT were more effective than no treatment. Guided self-help was the most highly ranked intervention but only evaluated in trials with the oldest adolescents (16–19 years). Moreover, the studies of guided self-help vary in the type and amount of therapist support provided and longer-term results are needed to determine whether effects persist. The magnitude of effects was generally attenuated for 6- to 12-month outcomes. Although unguided self-help was the lowest-ranked active intervention at post-intervention, it was the highest ranked at follow-up. This suggests the need for further research into whether interventions with self-directed elements enable young people to maintain effects by continuing or revisiting the intervention independently, and whether therapist support would improve long-term outcomes. There was no clear evidence that any active treatments were more acceptable to participants than any others. The relative effectiveness of intervention delivery modes must be taken into account in the context of the needs and preferences of individual young people, particularly as the differences between effect sizes were relatively small. Further research into the type and amount of therapist support that is most acceptable to young people and most cost-effective would be particularly useful.Jacobs FoundationNational Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR

Paleoearthquakes and slip rates of the North Tabriz Fault, NW Iran: preliminary results

The North Tabriz Fault is a major seismogenic fault in NW Iran. The last damaging earthquakes on this fault occurred in 1721, rupturing the southeastern fault segment, and in 1780, rupturing the northwestern one. The understanding of the seismic behavior of this fault is critical for assessing the hazard in Tabriz, one of the major cities of Iran; the city suffered major damage in both the 1721 and 1780 events. Our study area is located on the northwestern fault segment, west of the city of Tabriz. We performed geomorphic and trenching investigations, which allowed us to recognize evidence for repeated faulting events since the Late Pleistocene. From the trenches, we found evidence for at least four events during the past 3.6 ka, the most recent one being the 1780 earthquake. On the basis of different approaches, horizontal slip per event and slip rates are found in the ranges of 4 ± 0.5 m and 3.1-6.4 mm/yr, respectively. We also attempted an estimate of the average recurrence intervals which appears to be in the range 350-1430 years, with a mean recurrence interval of 821 ± 176 years. On the basis of these results, the northwestern segment of the North Tabriz Fault does not appear to present a major seismic potential for the near future, however, not enough is known about the southeastern segment of the fault to make a comparable conclusion

Monotone and fast computation of Euler’s constant

Abstract We construct sequences of finite sums ( l ˜ n ) n ≥ 0 $(\tilde{l}_{n})_{n\geq 0}$ and ( u ˜ n ) n ≥ 0 $(\tilde{u}_{n})_{n\geq 0}$ converging increasingly and decreasingly, respectively, to the Euler-Mascheroni constant γ at the geometric rate 1/2. Such sequences are easy to compute and satisfy complete monotonicity-type properties. As a consequence, we obtain an infinite product representation for 2 γ $2^{\gamma }$ converging in a monotone and fast way at the same time. We use a probabilistic approach based on a differentiation formula for the gamma process

Air pollution perception in ten countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

As largely documented in the literature, the stark restrictions enforced worldwide in 2020 to curb the COVID-19 pandemic also curtailed the production of air pollutants to some extent. This study investigates the perception of the air pollution as assessed by individuals located in ten countries: Australia, Brazil, China, Ghana, India, Iran, Italy, Norway, South Africa and the USA. The perceptions towards air quality were evaluated by employing an online survey administered in May 2020. Participants (N = 9394) in the ten countries expressed their opinions according to a Likert-scale response. A reduction in pollutant concentration was clearly perceived, albeit to a different extent, by all populations. The survey participants located in India and Italy perceived the largest drop in the air pollution concentration; conversely, the smallest variation was perceived among Chinese and Norwegian respondents. Among all the demographic indicators considered, only gender proved to be statistically significant

Electoral Competition and Endogenous Political Institutions: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Germany

Do established parties change political institutions to disadvantage smaller, non-mainstream parties if the latters' electoral prospects improve? We study this question with a natural experiment from the German federal State of Hesse. The experiment is the abolishment of an explicit electoral threshold (the so called "five percent hurdle") for local elections in 2001 by the Hessian state parliament. The abolishment improved the electoral prospects of smaller parties at local elections, but local politicians from mainstream parties had the ability to adjust municipal political institutions in such as way as to counteract the increased competitiveness of smaller parties. One such institutional adjustment is to reduce the size of the local council and thereby raise implicit electoral thresholds. Using a dataset that covers all 426 Hessian municipalities over the period 1989-2011, we document with a difference-in-discontinuity design that municipalities where the electoral competitiveness of smaller parties improved more because of the abolishment of the explicit threshold, reduced their council size more. Hence, established parties appear to erect barriers to entry by adjusting political institutions once new political formations become viable electoral alternatives

Leaders’ Impact on Public Spending Priorities: The Case of the German Laender

We examine determinants of the composition of public expenditure in the German Laender (states) over the period 1993-2008, as the Laender exhibit a high degree of institutional and political homogeneity and are endowed with extensive fiscal competences. Our prime contribution is an investigation into how political leaders' socioeconomic background influences public spending priorities. Applying sociological theory, we link preferences for the composition of public spending to social status. In contrast to approaches relying on political budget cycles or partisan theory, we find strong and theory-consistent evidence that prime ministers tend to favour fiscal policies supporting the social class in which they are socialised. Governments led by prime ministers from a poor socioeconomic background spend significantly more on social security, education, health, infrastructure, and public safety

Tertiary sequence of deformation in a thin-skinned/thick-skinned collision belt: The Zagros Folded Belt (Fars, Iran)

International audienceWe describe how thin-skinned/thick-skinned deformation in the Zagros Folded Belt interacted in time and space. Homogeneous fold wavelengths (15.8 ± 5.3 km), tectono-sedimentary evidence for simultaneous fold growth in the past 5.5 ± 2.5 Ma, drainage network organization, and homogeneous peak differential stresses (40 ± 15 MPa) together point to buckling as the dominant process responsible for cover folding. Basin analysis reveals that basement inversion occurred ∼20 Ma ago as the Arabia/Eurasian plate convergence reduced and accumulation of Neogene siliciclastics in foreland basin started. By 10 Ma, ongoing contraction occurred by underplating of Arabian crustal units beneath the Iranian plate. This process represents 75% of the total shortening. It is not before 5 Ma that the Zagros foreland was incorporated into the southward propagating basement thrust wedge. Folds rejuvenated by 3–2 Ma because of uplift driven by basement shortening and erosion. Since then, folds grew at 0.3—0.6 mm/yr and forced the rivers to flow axially. A total shortening of 65–78 km (16–19%) is estimated across the Zagros. This corresponds to shortening rates of 6.5–8 km/Ma consistent with current geodetic surveys. We point out that although thin-skinned deformation in the sedimentary cover may be important, basement-involved shortening should not be neglected as it requires far less shortening. Moreover, for such foreland folded belts involving basement shortening, underplating may be an efficient process accommodating a significant part of the plate convergence