Splay fault branching from the Hikurangi subduction shear zone: Implications for slow slip and fluid flow

Pre-stack depth migration data across the Hikurangi margin, East Coast of the North Island, New Zealand, are used to derive subducting slab geometry, upper crustal structure and seismic velocities resolved to ∼14 km depth. We investigate the potential relationship between the crustal architecture, fluid migration and short-term geodetically determined slow-slip events. The subduction interface is a shallow dipping thrust at < 7 km depth near the trench and steps down to 14 km depth along an ∼18 km long ramp, beneath Porangahau Ridge. This apparent bend in the décollement is associated with splay fault branching and coincides with a zone of maximum slip (90 mm) inferred on the subduction interface during slow slip events in June and July 2011. A low-velocity zone beneath the plate interface, up-dip of the plate interface ramp, is interpreted as fluid-rich overpressured sediments capped with a low permeability condensed layer of chalk and interbedded mudstones. Fluid rich sediments have been imbricated by splay faults in a region that coincides with the step down in the décollement from the top of subducting sediments to the oceanic crust and contribute to spatial variation in frictional properties of the plate interface that may promote slow slip behavior in the region. Further, transient fluid migration along splay faults at Porangahau Ridge may signify stress changes during slow slip

A Novel Over-Sea-Ice Seismic Reflection Survey in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica

During the austral spring of 2005, approximately 28 km of over-sea-ice seismic reflection data were recorded over McMurdo Sound, Antarctica, in support of the ANtarctic geological DRILLing Program (ANDRILL). The 2005 ANDRILL Southern McMurdo Sound Project (SMS) seismic survey incorporated techniques that improved the quality of over-sea-ice seismic data. Previous over-sea-ice seismic experiments have had limited success because of poor source coupling caused by thin sea ice and source bubble-pulse effects caused by explosive seismic sources placed in the water column. To mitigate these problems, a Generator-Injector (GI) air gun was used as the seismic source. The GI air gun was lowered into the water column through holes drilled through the sea ice. The GI air gun minimized the source bubble effects that had plagued previous over-sea-ice experiments in the Antarctic. A 60-channel seismic snow streamer consisting of vertically oriented gimbaled geophones with 25-m takeout spacing was employed to aid rapid data collection. The 2005 SMS seismic survey produced data that accurately tied into existing single-channel marine seismic data and demonstrated the value of the air-gun/snow-streamer system for future over-sea-ice seismic surveys in the Antarctic

Long-term increases in soil carbon due to ecosystem fertilization by atmospheric nitrogen deposition demonstrated by regional-scale modelling and observations

Fertilization of nitrogen (N)-limited ecosystems by anthropogenic atmospheric nitrogen deposition (Ndep) may promote CO2 removal from the atmosphere, thereby buffering human effects on global radiative forcing. We used the biogeochemical ecosystem model N14CP, which considers interactions among C (carbon), N and P (phosphorus), driven by a new reconstruction of historical Ndep, to assess the responses of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in British semi-natural landscapes to anthropogenic change. We calculate that increased net primary production due to Ndep has enhanced detrital inputs of C to soils, causing an average increase of 1.2 kgCm−2 (c. 10%) in soil SOC over the period 1750–2010. The simulation results are consistent with observed changes in topsoil SOC concentration in the late 20th Century, derived from sample-resample measurements at nearly 2000 field sites. More than half (57%) of the additional topsoil SOC is predicted to have a short turnover time (c. 20 years), and will therefore be sensitive to future changes in Ndep. The results are the first to validate model predictions of Ndep effects against observations of SOC at a regional field scale. They demonstrate the importance of long-term macronutrient interactions and the transitory nature of soil responses in the terrestrial C cycle

The northern Hikurangi margin three-dimensional plate interface in New Zealand remains rough 100 km from the trench

At the northern Hikurangi margin (North Island, New Zealand), shallow slow slip events (SSEs) frequently accommodate subduction-interface plate motion from landward of the trench to <20 km depth. SSEs may be spatially related to geometrical interface heterogeneity, though kilometer-scale plate-interface roughness imaged by active-source seismic methods is only constrained offshore at <12 km depth. Onshore constraints are comparatively lacking, but we mapped the Hikurangi margin plate interface using receiver functions from data collected by a dense 22 × 10 km array of 49 broadband seismometers. The plate interface manifests as a positive-amplitude conversion (velocity increase with depth) dipping west from 10 to 17 km depth. This interface corroborates relocated earthquake hypocenters, seismic velocity models, and downdip extrapolation of depth-converted two-dimensional active-source lines. Our mapped plate interface has kilometer-amplitude roughness we interpret as oceanic volcanics or seamounts, and is 1–4 km shallower than the regional-scale plate-interface model used in geodetic inversions. Slip during SSEs may thus have different magnitudes and/or distributions than previously thought. We show interface roughness also leads to shear-strength variability, where slip may nucleate in locally weak areas and propagate across areas of low shear-strength gradient. Heterogeneous shear strength throughout the depth range of the northern Hikurangi margin may govern the nature of plate deformation, including the localization of both slow slip and hazardous earthquakes

Late Cenozoic Climate History of the Ross Embayment from the AND-1B Drill Hole: Culmination of Three Decades of Antarctic Margin Drilling

Because of the paucity of exposed rock, the direct physical record of Antarctic Cenozoic glacial history has become known only recently and then largely from offshore shelf basins through seismic surveys and drilling. The number of holes on the continental shelf has been small and largely confined to three areas (McMurdo Sound, Prydz Bay, and Antarctic Peninsula), but even in McMurdo Sound, where Oligocene and early Miocene strata are well cored, the late Cenozoic is poorly known and dated. The latest Antarctic geological drilling program, ANDRILL, successfully cored a 1285-m-long record of climate history spanning the last 13 m.y. from subsea-floor sediment beneath the McMurdo Ice Shelf (MIS), using drilling systems specially developed for operating through ice shelves. The cores provide the most complete Antarctic record to date of ice-sheet and climate fluctuations for this period of Earth’s history. The >60 cycles of advance and retreat of the grounded ice margin preserved in the AND-1B record the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet since a profound global cooling step in deep-sea oxygen isotope records ~14 m.y.a. A feature of particular interest is a ~90-m-thick interval of diatomite deposited during the warm Pliocene and representing an extended period (~200,000 years) of locally open water, high phytoplankton productivity, and retreat of the glaciers on land

Late Cenozoic Climate History of the Ross Embayment from the AND-1B Drill Hole: Culmination of Three Decades of Antarctic Margin Drilling

Because of the paucity of exposed rock, the direct physical record of Antarctic Cenozoic glacial history has become known only recently and then largely from offshore shelf basins through seismic surveys and drilling. The number of holes on the continental shelf has been small and largely confined to three areas (McMurdo Sound, Prydz Bay, and Antarctic Peninsula), but even in McMurdo Sound, where Oligocene and early Miocene strata are well cored, the late Cenozoic is poorly known and dated. The latest Antarctic geological drilling program, ANDRILL, successfully cored a 1285-m-long record of climate history spanning the last 13 m.y. from subsea-floor sediment beneath the McMurdo Ice Shelf (MIS), using drilling systems specially developed for operating through ice shelves. The cores provide the most complete Antarctic record to date of ice-sheet and climate fluctuations for this period of Earth’s history. The >60 cycles of advance and retreat of the grounded ice margin preserved in the AND-1B record the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet since a profound global cooling step in deep-sea oxygen isotope records ~14 m.y.a. A feature of particular interest is a ~90-m-thick interval of diatomite deposited during the warm Pliocene and representing an extended period (~200,000 years) of locally open water, high phytoplankton productivity, and retreat of the glaciers on land

BICCO-Net II. Final report to the Biological Impacts of Climate Change Observation Network (BICCO-Net) Steering Group

• BICCO-Net Phase II presents the most comprehensive single assessment of climate change impacts on UK biodiversity to date. • The results provide a valuable resource for the CCRA 2018, future LWEC report cards, the National Adaptation Programme and other policy-relevant initiatives linked to climate change impacts on biodiversity

Identifying effective approaches for monitoring national natural capital for policy use

In order to effectively manage natural resources at national scales national decision makers require data on the natural capital which supports the delivery of ecosystem services (ES). Key data sources used for the provision of national natural capital metrics include Satellite Remote Sensing (SRS), which provides information on land cover at an increasing range of resolutions, and field survey, which can provide very high resolution data on ecosystem components, but is constrained in its potential coverage by resource requirements. Here we combine spatially representative field data from a historic national survey of Great Britain (Countryside Survey (CS)) with concurrent low resolution SRS data land cover map within modelling frameworks to produce national natural capital metrics. We present three examples of natural capital metrics; top soil carbon, headwater stream quality and nectar species plant richness which show how highly resolved, but spatially representative field data can be used to significantly enhance the potential of low resolution SRS land cover data for providing national spatial data on natural capital metrics which have been linked to ecosystem services (ES). We discuss the role of such metrics in evaluations of ecosystem service provision and areas of further development to improve their utility for stakeholders

Predicting disease risk areas through co-production of spatial models: the example of Kyasanur Forest Disease in India’s forest landscapes

Zoonotic diseases affect resource-poor tropical communities disproportionately, and are linked to human use and modification of ecosystems. Disentangling the socio-ecological mechanisms by which ecosystem change precipitates impacts of pathogens is critical for predicting disease risk and designing effective intervention strategies. Despite the global “One Health” initiative, predictive models for tropical zoonotic diseases often focus on narrow ranges of risk factors and are rarely scaled to intervention programs and ecosystem use. This study uses a participatory, co-production approach to address this disconnect between science, policy and implementation, by developing more informative disease models for a fatal tick-borne viral haemorrhagic disease, Kyasanur Forest Disease (KFD), that is spreading across degraded forest ecosystems in India. We integrated knowledge across disciplines to identify key risk factors and needs with actors and beneficiaries across the relevant policy sectors, to understand disease patterns and develop decision support tools. Human case locations (2014–2018) and spatial machine learning quantified the relative role of risk factors, including forest cover and loss, host densities and public health access, in driving landscape-scale disease patterns in a long-affected district (Shivamogga, Karnataka State). Models combining forest metrics, livestock densities and elevation accurately predicted spatial patterns in human KFD cases (2014–2018). Consistent with suggestions that KFD is an “ecotonal” disease, landscapes at higher risk for human KFD contained diverse forest-plantation mosaics with high coverage of moist evergreen forest and plantation, high indigenous cattle density, and low coverage of dry deciduous forest. Models predicted new hotspots of outbreaks in 2019, indicating their value for spatial targeting of intervention. Co-production was vital for: gathering outbreak data that reflected locations of exposure in the landscape; better understanding contextual socio-ecological risk factors; and tailoring the spatial grain and outputs to the scale of forest use, and public health interventions. We argue this inter-disciplinary approach to risk prediction is applicable across zoonotic diseases in tropical settings

Spatial and habitat variation in aphid, butterfly, moth and bird phenologies over the last half century

Global warming has advanced the timing of biological events, potentially leading to disruption across trophic levels. The potential importance of phenological change as a driver of population trends has been suggested. To fully understand the possible impacts, there is a need to quantify the scale of these changes spatially and according to habitat type. We studied the relationship between phenological trends, space and habitat type between 1965 and 2012 using an extensive UK dataset comprising 269 aphid, bird, butterfly and moth species. We modelled phenologies using generalized additive mixed models that included covariates for geographical (latitude, longitude, altitude), temporal (year, season) and habitat terms (woodland, scrub, grassland). Model selection showed that a baseline model with geographical and temporal components explained the variation in phenologies better than either a model in which space and time interacted or a habitat model without spatial terms. This baseline model showed strongly that phenologies shifted progressively earlier over time, that increasing altitude produced later phenologies and that a strong spatial component determined phenological timings, particularly latitude. The seasonal timing of a phenological event, in terms of whether it fell in the first or second half of the year, did not result in substantially different trends for butterflies. For moths, early season phenologies advanced more rapidly than those recorded later. Whilst temporal trends across all habitats resulted in earlier phenologies over time, agricultural habitats produced significantly later phenologies than most other habitats studied, probably because of nonclimatic drivers. A model with a significant habitat‐time interaction was the best‐fitting model for birds, moths and butterflies, emphasizing that the rates of phenological advance also differ among habitats for these groups. Our results suggest the presence of strong spatial gradients in mean seasonal timing and nonlinear trends towards earlier seasonal timing that varies in form and rate among habitat types