Prediction and prevention of the next pandemic zoonosis.

Most pandemics--eg, HIV/AIDS, severe acute respiratory syndrome, pandemic influenza--originate in animals, are caused by viruses, and are driven to emerge by ecological, behavioural, or socioeconomic changes. Despite their substantial effects on global public health and growing understanding of the process by which they emerge, no pandemic has been predicted before infecting human beings. We review what is known about the pathogens that emerge, the hosts that they originate in, and the factors that drive their emergence. We discuss challenges to their control and new efforts to predict pandemics, target surveillance to the most crucial interfaces, and identify prevention strategies. New mathematical modelling, diagnostic, communications, and informatics technologies can identify and report hitherto unknown microbes in other species, and thus new risk assessment approaches are needed to identify microbes most likely to cause human disease. We lay out a series of research and surveillance opportunities and goals that could help to overcome these challenges and move the global pandemic strategy from response to pre-emption

Sympatric serpentine endemic Monardella (Lamiaceae) Species Maintain Habitat Differences Despite Hybridization

Ecological differentiation and genetic isolation are thought to be critical in facilitating coexistence between related species, but the relative importance of these phenomena and the interactions between them are not well understood. Here, we examine divergence in abiotic habitat affinity and the extent of hybridization and introgression between two rare species of Monardella (Lamiaceae) that are both restricted to the same serpentine soil exposure in California. Although broadly sympatric, they are found in microhabitats that differ consistently in soil chemistry, slope, rockiness and vegetation. We identify one active hybrid zone at a site with intermediate soil and above-ground characteristics, and we document admixture patterns indicative of extensive and asymmetric introgression from one species into the other. We find that genetic distance among heterospecific populations is related to geographic distance, such that the extent of apparent introgression is partly explained by the spatial proximity to the hybrid zone. Our work shows that plant species can maintain morphological and ecological integrity in the face of weak genetic isolation, intermediate habitats can facilitate the establishment of hybrids, and that the degree of apparent introgression a population experiences is related to its geographic location rather than its local habitat characteristics

“You just feel like you’ve failed them”: A Feminist Relational Discourse Analysis on mothers’ voiced accounts of the ‘duty to protect’ children from fatness

Research has highlighted damaging contradictions in the responsibilisation of mothers over children’s health, at once held responsible for tackling ‘childhood obesity’ while being cautious not to encourage children to become obsessive with their bodies. While research has highlighted discourses of mother blame and elucidated mothers' experiences, less is known about how mothers negotiate discourse in their voiced accounts. Utilising Feminist Relational Discourse Analysis, this study analysed interviews with 12 mothers in England to explore their experiences of a nationally mandated BMI screening programme in schools and explore how discourses shape their voices and stories. In negotiating complex and contradictory discourses of motherhood and fatness, participants expressed a 'duty to protect' their children from both fatphobia and fatness. While tackling the 'obesity epidemic' was framed as a shared moral duty of all parents, mothers felt that the duty to protect children from the harm of fatphobia is a private and personal struggle that they need to endure alone. Negotiating these responsibilities left mothers feeling guilt at their personal ‘failure’ to protect their children from one or both harms. This analysis calls attention to how dominant discourses impact mothers and serve to personally responsibilise them for the harm caused by state-sanctioned fatphobia

Investigation of the importance of rock chemistry for saxicolous lichen communities of the New Idria serpentinite mass, San Benito County, California, USA

Although several lichen inventories exist for European ultramafic sites, only four surveys of serpentine lichens for North America have been published to date. Of those, only one has been conducted in California. We conducted a survey of saxicolous lichens from ultramafic rocks (including nephrite, partially serpentinized peridotite, and serpentinite) and non-ultramafic rocks (including silica-carbonate, shale, and sandstone) at the New Idria serpentinite mass, San Benito County, California. X-ray Fluorescence Analysis of the rocks from which the lichens were collected revealed significant elemental differences between the ultramafic and non-ultramafic rocks for 26 of the 32 major and trace elements analyzed. We identified a total of 119 species of lichenized and lichenicolous fungi; 60 species were restricted to ultramafic substrata, 19 to silica-carbonate, and 15 to shale and sandstone. Only 4 species were shared in common. A permutational multivariate analysis of variance (perMANOVA) test revealed significant differences in lichen assemblages between ultramafic and non-ultramafic rocks at the species level but not at the generic level, with species richness (alpha-diversity) significantly greater at the ultramafic sites. We suggest that, although differences in geochemistry clearly influence the lichen community composition, other factors, especially substratum age and the physical characteristics of the rock, are of equal, if not greater, importance. Of all the species collected, six, Buellia aethalea, B. ocellata, Caloplaca oblongula, Rhizocarpon saurinum, Thelocarpon laureri, and Trapelia obtegens, are reported new to California, along with an apparently previously undescribed Solenopsora sp. The rest of the species encountered are relatively frequent in the lichen flora of southern and central California, except Aspicilia praecrenata, a rare California endemic that we collected on both ultramafic and non-ultramafic rocks

Retrospective evaluation of foot-and-mouth disease vaccineeffectiveness in Turkey

AbstractFoot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is present in much of Turkey and its control is largely based on vaccination. The arrival of the FMD Asia-1 serotype in Turkey in 2011 caused particular concern, spreading rapidly westwards across the country towards the FMD free European Union. With no prior natural immunity, control of spread would rely heavily on vaccination.Unlike human vaccines, field protection is rarely evaluated directly for FMD vaccines. Between September 2011 and July 2012 we performed four retrospective outbreak investigations to assess the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of FMD Asia-1 vaccines in Turkey. Vaccine effectiveness is defined as the reduction in risk in vaccinated compared to unvaccinated individuals with similar virus exposure in the field.The four investigations included 12 villages and 1230 cattle >4 months of age. One investigation assessed the FMD Asia-1 Shamir vaccine, the other three evaluated the recently introduced FMD Asia-1 TUR 11 vaccine made using a field isolate of the FMD Asia-1 Sindh-08 lineage that had recently entered Turkey.After adjustment for confounding, the TUR 11 vaccine provided moderate protection against both clinical disease VE=69% [95% CI: 50%–81%] and infection VE=63% [95% CI: 29%–81%]. However, protection was variable with some herds with high vaccine coverage still experiencing high disease incidence. Some of this variability will be the result of the variation in virus challenge and immunity that occurs under field conditions.In the outbreak investigated there was no evidence that the Asia-1 Shamir vaccine provided adequate protection against clinical FMD with an incidence of 89% in single vaccinated cattle and 69% in those vaccinated two to five times.Based on these effectiveness estimates, vaccination alone is unlikely to produce the high levels of herd immunity needed to control FMD without additional control measures

Zoonotic disease research in East Africa

Abstract Background The East African region is endemic with multiple zoonotic diseases and is one of the hotspots for emerging infectious zoonotic diseases with reported multiple outbreaks of epidemic diseases such as Ebola, Marburg and Rift Valley Fever. Here we present a systematic assessment of published research on zoonotic diseases in the region and thesis research in Kenya to understand the regional research focus and trends in publications, and estimate proportion of theses research transitioning to peer-reviewed journal publications. Methods We searched PubMed, Google Scholar and African Journals Online databases for publications on 36 zoonotic diseases identified to have occurred in the East Africa countries of Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda and Uganda, for the period between 1920 and 2017. We searched libraries and queried online repositories for masters and PhD theses on these diseases produced between 1970 and 2016 in five universities and two research institutions in Kenya. Results We identified 771 journal articles on 22, and 168 theses on 21 of the 36 zoonotic diseases investigated. Research on zoonotic diseases increased exponentially with the last 10 years of our study period contributing more than half of all publications 460 (60%) and theses 102 (61%) retrieved. Endemic diseases were the most studied accounting for 656 (85%) and 150 (89%) of the publication and theses studies respectively, with publications on epidemic diseases associated with outbreaks reported in the region or elsewhere. Epidemiological studies were the most common study types but limited to cross-sectional studies while socio-economics were the least studied. Only 11% of the theses research transitioned to peer-review publications, taking an average of 2.5 years from theses production to manuscript publication. Conclusion Our findings demonstrate increased attention to zoonotic diseases in East Africa but reveal the need to expand the scope, focus and quality of studies to adequately address the public health, social and economic threats posed by zoonoses

Multihost experimental evolution of a plant RNA virus reveals local adaptation and host specific mutations

[EN] For multihost pathogens, adaptation to multiple hosts has important implications for both applied and basic research. At the applied level, it is one of the main factors determining the probability and the severity of emerging disease outbreaks. At the basic level, it is thought to be a key mechanism for the maintenance of genetic diversity both in host and pathogen species. Using Tobacco etch potyvirus (TEV) and four natural hosts, we have designed an evolution experiment whose strength and novelty are the use of complex multicellular host organism as hosts and a high level of replication of different evolutionary histories and lineages. A pattern of local adaptation, characterized by a higher infectivity and virulence on host(s) encountered during the experimental evolution was found. Local adaptation only had a cost in terms of performance on other hosts in some cases. We could not verify the existence of a cost for generalists, as expected to arise from antagonistic pleiotropy and other genetic mechanisms generating a fitness trade-off between hosts. This observation confirms that this classical theoretical prediction lacks empirical support. We discuss the reasons for this discrepancy between theory and experiment in the light of our results. The analysis of full genome consensus sequences of the evolved lineages established that all mutations shared between lineages were host specific. A low degree of parallel evolution was observed, possibly reflecting the various adaptive pathways available for TEV in each host. Altogether, these results reveal a strong adaptive potential of TEV to new hosts without severe evolutionary constraints.We thank Francisca de la Iglesia and Angels Prosper for excellent technical assistance and Mark Zwart and two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments on a previous version of the manuscript. This research was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation grant BFU2009-06993 to S. F. E. S. B. was supported by the JAE-doc program from Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas and G. L. was supported by the Human Frontier Science Program, grant RGP0012/2008.Bedhomme, S.; Lafforgue, G.; Elena Fito, SF. (2012). Multihost experimental evolution of a plant RNA virus reveals local adaptation and host specific mutations. Molecular Biology and Evolution. 29(5):1481-1492. https://doi.org/10.1093/molbev/msr314S1481149229

Predicting the Impact of Long-Term Temperature Changes on the Epidemiology and Control of Schistosomiasis: A Mechanistic Model

, the causative agent of schistosomiasis in humans.The model showed that the impact of temperature on disease prevalence and abundance is not straightforward; the mean infection burden in humans increases up to 30°C, but then crashes at 35°C, primarily due to increased mortalities of the snail intermediate host. In addition, increased temperatures changed the dynamics of disease from stable, endemic infection to unstable, epidemic cycles at 35°C. However, the prevalence of infection was largely unchanged by increasing temperatures. Temperature increases also affected the response of the model to changes in each parameter, indicating certain control strategies may become less effective with local temperature changes. At lower temperatures, the most effective single control strategy is to target the adult parasites through chemotherapy. However, as temperatures increase, targeting the snail intermediate hosts, for example through molluscicide use, becomes more effective. will not respond to increased temperatures in a linear fashion, and the optimal control strategy is likely to change as temperatures change. It is only through a mechanistic approach, incorporating the combined effects of temperature on all stages of the life-cycle, that we can begin to predict the consequences of climate change on the incidence and severity of such diseases