Stereochemically Probing the photo-favorskii Rearrangement: A Mechanistic Investigation

Using model (R)-2-acetyl-2-phenyl acetate esters of (S)- or (R)-α-substituted-p-hydroxybutyrophenones (S,R)-12a and (R,R)-12b, we have shown that a highly efficient photo-Favorskii rearrangement proceeds through a series of intermediates to form racemic rearrangement products. The stereogenic methine on the photoproduct, rac-2-(p-hydroxyphenyl)propanoic acid (rac-9), is formed by closure of a phenoxy-allyloxy intermediate 17 collapsing to a cyclopropanone, the “Favorskii” intermediate 18. These results quantify the intermediacy of a racemized triplet biradical 316 on the major rearrangement pathway elusively to the intermediate 18. Thus, intersystem crossing from the triplet biradical surface to the ground state generates a planar zwitterion prior to formation of a Favorskii cyclopropanone that retains no memory of its stereochemical origin. These results parallel the mechanism of Dewar and Bordwell for the ground state formation of cyclopropanone 3 that proceed through an oxyallyl zwitterionic intermediate. The results are not consistent with the stereospecific SN2 ground state Favorskii mechanism observed by Stork, House, and Bernetti. Interconversion of the diastereomeric starting esters of (S,R)-12a and (R,R)-12b during photolysis did not occur thus ruling out leaving group return prior to rearrangement

Telomere anchoring at the nuclear periphery requires the budding yeast Sad1-UNC-84 domain protein Mps3

Positioning of telomeres at the nuclear periphery can have dramatic effects on gene expression by establishment of heritable, transcriptionally repressive subdomains. However, little is known about the integral membrane proteins that mediate telomere tethering at the nuclear envelope. Here, we find a previously unrecognized function for the Saccharomyces cerevisiae Sad1-UNC-84 domain protein Mps3 in regulating telomere positioning in mitotic cells. Our data demonstrate that the nucleoplasmic N-terminal acidic domain of Mps3 is not essential for viability. However, this acidic domain is necessary and sufficient for telomere tethering during S phase and the silencing of reporter constructs integrated at telomeres. We show that this is caused by the role of the Mps3 acidic domain in binding and localization of the silent information regulator protein Sir4 to the nuclear periphery. Thus, Mps3 functions as an integral membrane anchor for telomeres and is a novel nuclear receptor for the Sir4 pathway of telomere tethering and gene inactivation

Injury Risk Estimation Expertise Assessing the ACL Injury Risk Estimation Quiz

Background: Available methods for screening anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury risk are effective but limited in application as they generally rely on expensive and time-consuming biomechanical movement analysis. A potential efficient alternative to biomechanical screening is skilled movement analysis via visual inspection (ie, having experts estimate injury risk factors based on observations of athletes’ movements). Purpose: To develop a brief, valid psychometric assessment of ACL injury risk factor estimation skill: the ACL Injury Risk Estimation Quiz (ACL-IQ). Study Design: Cohort study (diagnosis); Level of evidence, 3. Methods: A total of 660 individuals participated in various stages of the study, including athletes, physicians, physical therapists, athletic trainers, exercise science researchers/students, and members of the general public in the United States. The ACL-IQ was fully computerized and made available online (www.ACL-IQ.org). Item sampling/reduction, reliability analysis, cross-validation, and convergent/discriminant validity analysis were conducted to optimize the efficiency and validity of the assessment. Results: Psychometric optimization techniques identified a short (mean time, 2 min 24 s), robust, 5-item assessment with high reliability (test-retest: r = 0.90) and consistent discriminability (average difference of exercise science professionals vs general population: Cohen d = 1.98). Exercise science professionals and general population individuals scored 74% and 53% correct, respectively. Convergent and discriminant validity was demonstrated. Scores on the ACL-IQ were most associated with ACL knowledge and various cue utilities and were least associated with domain-general spatial/decision-making ability, personality, or other demographic variables. Overall, 23% of the total sample (40% exercise science professionals; 6% general population) performed better than or equal to the ACL nomogram. Conclusion: This study presents the results of a systematic approach to assess individual differences in ACL injury risk factor estimation skill; the assessment approach is efficient (ie, it can be completed in\3 min) and psychometrically robust. The results provide evidence that some individuals have the ability to visually estimate ACL injury risk factors more accurately than other instrument-based ACL risk estimation methods (ie, ACL nomogram). The ACL-IQ provides the foundation for assessing the efficacy of observational ACL injury risk factor assessment (ie, does simple skilled visual inspection reduce ACL injuries?). It also provides a representative task environment that can be used to increase our understanding of the perceptual-cognitive mechanisms underlying observational movement analysis and to improve injury risk assessment performance

Gas-phase Fragmentation of Deprotonated p-Hydroxyphenacyl Derivatives

Electrospray ionization of methanolic solutions of p-hydroxyphenacyl derivatives HO-C6H4-C(O)-CH2-X (X = leaving group) provides abundant signals for the deprotonated species which are assigned to the corresponding phenolate anions −O-C6H4-C(O)-CH2-X. Upon collisional activation in the gas phase, these anions inter alia undergo loss of a neutral “C8H6O2” species concomitant with formation of the corresponding anions X−. The energies required for the loss of neutral roughly correlate with the gas phase acidities of the conjugate acids (HX). Extensive theoretical studies performed for X = CF3COO in order to reveal the energetically most favorable pathway for the formation of neutral “C8H6O2” suggest three different routes of similar energy demands, involving a spirocyclopropanone, epoxide formation, and a diradical, respectively

Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model—I: description of the system and the impact of radar-derived surface precipitation rates

A key strategy to improve the skill of quantitative predictions of precipitation, as well as hazardous weather such as severe thunderstorms and flash floods is to exploit the use of observations of convective activity (e.g. from radar). In this paper, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) aimed at addressing the problems of forecasting localized weather events with relatively short predictability time scale and based on a 1.5 km grid-length version of the Met Office Unified Model is presented. Particular attention is given to the impact of using predicted observations of radar-derived precipitation intensity in the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) used within the EPS. Our initial results based on the use of a 24-member ensemble of forecasts for two summer case studies show that the convective-scale EPS produces fairly reliable forecasts of temperature, horizontal winds and relative humidity at 1 h lead time, as evident from the inspection of rank histograms. On the other hand, the rank histograms seem also to show that the EPS generates too much spread for forecasts of (i) surface pressure and (ii) surface precipitation intensity. These may indicate that for (i) the value of surface pressure observation error standard deviation used to generate surface pressure rank histograms is too large and for (ii) may be the result of non-Gaussian precipitation observation errors. However, further investigations are needed to better understand these findings. Finally, the inclusion of predicted observations of precipitation from radar in the 24-member EPS considered in this paper does not seem to improve the 1-h lead time forecast skill

Simulations of the 2004 North American Monsoon: NAMAP2

The second phase of the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) Model Assessment Project (NAMAP2) was carried out to provide a coordinated set of simulations from global and regional models of the 2004 warm season across the North American monsoon domain. This project follows an earlier assessment, called NAMAP, that preceded the 2004 field season of the North American Monsoon Experiment. Six global and four regional models are all forced with prescribed, time-varying ocean surface temperatures. Metrics for model simulation of warm season precipitation processes developed in NAMAP are examined that pertain to the seasonal progression and diurnal cycle of precipitation, monsoon onset, surface turbulent fluxes, and simulation of the low-level jet circulation over the Gulf of California. Assessment of the metrics is shown to be limited by continuing uncertainties in spatially averaged observations, demonstrating that modeling and observational analysis capabilities need to be developed concurrently. Simulations of the core subregion (CORE) of monsoonal precipitation in global models have improved since NAMAP, despite the lack of a proper low-level jet circulation in these simulations. Some regional models run at higher resolution still exhibit the tendency observed in NAMAP to overestimate precipitation in the CORE subregion; this is shown to involve both convective and resolved components of the total precipitation. The variability of precipitation in the Arizona/New Mexico (AZNM) subregion is simulated much better by the regional models compared with the global models, illustrating the importance of transient circulation anomalies (prescribed as lateral boundary conditions) for simulating precipitation in the northern part of the monsoon domain. This suggests that seasonal predictability derivable from lower boundary conditions may be limited in the AZNM subregion.open131

Calibrating ensemble reliability whilst preserving spatial structure

Ensemble forecasts aim to improve decision-making by predicting a set of possible outcomes. Ideally, these would provide probabilities which are both sharp and reliable. In practice, the models, data assimilation and ensemble perturbation systems are all imperfect, leading to deficiencies in the predicted probabilities. This paper presents an ensemble post-processing scheme which directly targets local reliability, calibrating both climatology and ensemble dispersion in one coherent operation. It makes minimal assumptions about the underlying statistical distributions, aiming to extract as much information as possible from the original dynamic forecasts and support statistically awkward variables such as precipitation. The output is a set of ensemble members preserving the spatial, temporal and inter-variable structure from the raw forecasts, which should be beneficial to downstream applications such as hydrological models. The calibration is tested on three leading 15-d ensemble systems, and their aggregation into a simple multimodel ensemble. Results are presented for 12 h, 1° scale over Europe for a range of surface variables, including precipitation. The scheme is very effective at removing unreliability from the raw forecasts, whilst generally preserving or improving statistical resolution. In most cases, these benefits extend to the rarest events at each location within the 2-yr verification period. The reliability and resolution are generally equivalent or superior to those achieved using a Local Quantile-Quantile Transform, an established calibration method which generalises bias correction. The value of preserving spatial structure is demonstrated by the fact that 3×3 averages derived from grid-scale precipitation calibration perform almost as well as direct calibration at 3×3 scale, and much better than a similar test neglecting the spatial relationships. Some remaining issues are discussed regarding the finite size of the output ensemble, variables such as sea-level pressure which are very reliable to start with, and the best way to handle derived variables such as dewpoint depression