Local linear density estimation for filtered survival data, with bias correction

A class of local linear kernel density estimators based on weighted least-squares kernel estimation is considered within the framework of Aalen's multiplicative intensity model. This model includes the filtered data model that, in turn, allows for truncation and/or censoring in addition to accommodating unusual patterns of exposure as well as occurrence. It is shown that the local linear estimators corresponding to all different weightings have the same pointwise asymptotic properties. However, the weighting previously used in the literature in the i.i.d. case is seen to be far from optimal when it comes to exposure robustness, and a simple alternative weighting is to be preferred. Indeed, this weighting has, effectively, to be well chosen in a 'pilot' estimator of the survival function as well as in the main estimator itself. We also investigate multiplicative and additive bias-correction methods within our framework. The multiplicative bias-correction method proves to be the best in a simulation study comparing the performance of the considered estimators. An example concerning old-age mortality demonstrates the importance of the improvements provided

Earliest Triassic microbialites in the South China Block and other areas; controls on their growth and distribution

Earliest Triassic microbialites (ETMs) and inorganic carbonate crystal fans formed after the end-Permian mass extinction (ca. 251.4 Ma) within the basal Triassic Hindeodus parvus conodont zone. ETMs are distinguished from rarer, and more regional, subsequent Triassic microbialites. Large differences in ETMs between northern and southern areas of the South China block suggest geographic provinces, and ETMs are most abundant throughout the equatorial Tethys Ocean with further geographic variation. ETMs occur in shallow-marine shelves in a superanoxic stratified ocean and form the only widespread Phanerozoic microbialites with structures similar to those of the Cambro-Ordovician, and briefly after the latest Ordovician, Late Silurian and Late Devonian extinctions. ETMs disappeared long before the mid-Triassic biotic recovery, but it is not clear why, if they are interpreted as disaster taxa. In general, ETM occurrence suggests that microbially mediated calcification occurred where upwelled carbonate-rich anoxic waters mixed with warm aerated surface waters, forming regional dysoxia, so that extreme carbonate supersaturation and dysoxic conditions were both required for their growth. Long-term oceanic and atmospheric changes may have contributed to a trigger for ETM formation. In equatorial western Pangea, the earliest microbialites are late Early Triassic, but it is possible that ETMs could exist in western Pangea, if well-preserved earliest Triassic facies are discovered in future work

Fraction of exhaled nitric oxide is higher in liver transplant recipients than in controls from the general population: a cohort study

BackgroundFraction of exhaled nitric oxide with an expiratory flow of 50 mL/s (FENO50) is a biomarker of eosinophilic airway inflammation. Liver transplant recipients have an increased risk of pulmonary infections, but little is known about the burden of chronic pulmonary diseases in this group. We aimed to assess the prevalence of elevated FENO50 in liver transplant recipients and compare it to controls from the general population.MethodsFENO50 was measured in 271 liver transplant recipients from The Danish Comorbidity in Liver Transplant Recipients (DACOLT) study and 1,018 age- and sex-matched controls from The Copenhagen General Population Study (CGPS). Elevated FENO50 was defined as ≥25 or ≥50 parts per billion (ppb). The analyses were adjusted for known and suspected confounders.ResultsThe median age of the liver transplant recipients was 55 years (interquartile range (IQR) 46–64), and 58% were men. The liver transplant recipients had a higher median FENO50 than the controls [16 ppb (IQR 10–26) vs. 13 ppb (IQR 8–18.), p < 0.001]. Furthermore, the liver transplant recipients had a higher prevalence of elevated FENO50 (for FENO50 ≥25 ppb 27% vs. 11%, p < 0.001 and ≥50 ppb 4% vs. 2%, p = 0.02). The results were similar after adjusting for age, sex, smoking status, use of airway medication, and blood eosinophil counts [the adjusted odds ratio (OR) for FENO50 ≥25 ppb was 3.58 (95% CI: 2.50–5.15, p < 0.0001) and the adjusted OR for FENO50 ≥50 ppb was 3.14 (95% CI: 1.37–7.20, p = 0.007)].ConclusionThe liver transplant recipients had elevated FENO50, implying increased eosinophilic airway inflammation. The clinical impact of this finding needs further investigation

Did Photosymbiont Bleaching Lead to the Demise of Planktic Foraminifer Morozovella at the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum?

The symbiont-bearing mixed-layer planktic foraminiferal genera Morozovella and Acarinina were among the most important calcifiers of early Paleogene tropical–subtropical oceans. A marked and permanent switch in the abundance of these genera is known to have occurred at low-latitude sites at the beginning of the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum(EECO), such that the relative abundance of Morozovella permanently and significantly decreased along with a progressive reduction in the number of species; concomitantly, the genus Acarinina almost doubled its abundance and diversified. Here we examine planktic foraminiferal assemblages and stable isotope compositions of their tests at Ocean Drilling Program Site 1051 (northwest Atlantic) to detail the timing of this biotic event, to document its details at the species level, and to test a potential cause: the loss of photosymbionts (bleaching). We also provide stable isotope measurements of bulk carbonate to refine the stratigraphy at Site 1051 and to determine when changes in Morozovella species composition and their test size occurred. We demonstrate that the switch in Morozovella and Acarinina abundance occurred rapidly and in coincidence with a negative carbon isotope excursion known as the J event (~53 Ma), which marks the start of the EECO.We provide evidence of photosymbiont loss after the J event from a size-restricted δ13C analysis. However, such inferred bleaching was transitory and also occurred in the acarininids. The geologically rapid switch in planktic foraminiferal genera during the early Eocene was a major evolutionary change within marine biota, but loss of photosymbionts was not the primary causal mechanism

Climate Impacts, Political Institutions, and Leader Survival: Effects of Drought and Flooding Precipitation.

We explore how the political survival of leaders in different political regimes is affected by drought and flooding precipitation, which are the two major anticipated impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Using georeferenced climate data for the entire world and the Archigos dataset for the period of 1950-2010, we find that irregular political exits, such as coups or revolutions, are not significantly affected by climate impacts. Similarly, drought has a positive but insignificant effect on all types of political exits. On the other hand, we find that floods increase political turnover through the regular means such as elections or term limits. Democracies are better able to withstand the pressures arising from the economic and social disruptions associated with high precipitation than other institutional arrangements. Our results further suggest that, in the context of floods, political institutions play a more important role than economic development for the leaders’ political survival

Cold spells in the Nordic Seas during the early Eocene Greenhouse

Abstract The early Eocene (c. 56 - 48 million years ago) experienced some of the highest global temperatures in Earth’s history since the Mesozoic, with no polar ice. Reports of contradictory ice-rafted erratics and cold water glendonites in the higher latitudes have been largely dismissed due to ambiguity of the significance of these purported cold-climate indicators. Here we apply clumped isotope paleothermometry to a traditionally qualitative abiotic proxy, glendonite calcite, to generate quantitative temperature estimates for northern mid-latitude bottom waters. Our data show that the glendonites of the Danish Basin formed in waters below 5 °C, at water depths of &lt;300 m. Such near-freezing temperatures have not previously been reconstructed from proxy data for anywhere on the early Eocene Earth, and these data therefore suggest that regionalised cool episodes punctuated the background warmth of the early Eocene, likely linked to eruptive phases of the North Atlantic Igneous Province.</jats:p

Future climate resources for tourism in Europe based on the daily Tourism Climatic Index

Climate is an important resource for many types of tourism. One of several metrics for the suitability of climate for sightseeing is Mieczkowski’s “Tourism Climatic Index” (TCI), which summarizes and combines seven climate variables. By means of the TCI, we analyse the present climate resources for tourism in Europe and projected changes under future climate change. We use daily data from five regional climate models and compare the reference period 1961–1990 to the A2 scenario in 2071–2100. A comparison of the TCI based on reanalysis data and model simulations for the reference period shows that current regional climate models capture the important climatic patterns. Currently, climate resources are best in Southern Europe and deteriorate with increasing latitude and altitude. With climate change the latitudinal band of favourable climate is projected to shift northward improving climate resources in Northern and Central Europe in most seasons. Southern Europe’s suitability for sightseeing tourism drops strikingly in the summer holiday months but is partially compensated by considerable improvements between October and Apri