Forecasting in the presence of recent structural change

We examine how to forecast after a recent break. We consider monitoring for change and then combining forecasts from models that do and do not use data before the change; and robust methods, namely rolling regressions, forecast averaging over different windows and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) forecasting. We derive analytical results for the performance of the robust methods relative to a full-sample recursive benchmark. For a location model subject to stochastic breaks the relative MSFE ranking is EWMA < rolling regression < forecast averaging. No clear ranking emerges under deterministic breaks. In Monte Carlo experiments forecast averaging improves performance in many cases with little penalty where there are small or infrequent changes. Similar results emerge when we examine a large number of UK and US macroeconomic series

Structure and water exchange of hydrated oxo halo ions in aqueous solution using QMCF MD simulation, large angle X-ray scattering and EXAFS

Theoretical ab initio quantum mechanical charge field molecular dynamics (QMCF MD) has been applied in conjunction with experimental large angle X-ray scattering (LAXS) and EXAFS measurements to study structure and dynamics of the hydrated oxo chloro anions chlorite, ClO2-, chlorate, ClO3-, and perchlorate, ClO4-. In addition, the structures of the hydrated hypochlorite, ClO-, bromate, BrO3-, iodate, IO3- and metaperiodate, IO4-, ions have been determined in aqueous solution by means of LAXS. The structures of the bromate, metaperiodate, and orthoperiodate, H2IO63-, ions have been determined by EXAFS as solid sodium salts and in aqueous solution as well. The results show clearly that the only form of periodate present in aqueous solution is metaperiodate. The Cl-O bond distances in the hydrated oxo chloro anions as determined by LAXS and obtained in the QMCF MD simulations are in excellent agreement, being 0.01-0.02 angstrom longer than in solid anhydrous salts due to hydration through hydrogen bonding to water molecules. The oxo halo anions, all with unit negative charge, have low charge density making them typical structure breakers, thus the hydrogen bonds formed to the hydrating water molecules are weaker and more short-lived than those between water molecules in pure water. The water exchange mechanism of the oxo chloro anions resembles those of the oxo sulfur anions with a direct exchange at the oxygen atoms for perchlorate and sulfate. The water exchange rate for the perchlorate ion is significantly faster, tau(0.5) = 1.4 ps, compared to the hydrated sulfate ion and pure water, tau(0.5) = 2.6 and 1.7 ps, respectively. The angular radial distribution functions show that the chlorate and sulfite ions have a more complex water exchange mechanism. As the chlorite and chlorate ions are more weakly hydrated than the sulfite ion the spatial occupancy is less well-defined and it is not possible to follow any well-defined migration pattern as it is difficult to distinguish between hydrating water molecules and bulk water in the region close to the ions

The VELO High Voltage System Control Software

This note describes the VELO high voltage control software. The implementation of its structure as a PVSS Finite State Machine is emphasized. The main error conditions that may occur during operation is also discussed. The VELO HV software conforms to the specification of the VELO

Gender and Leadership

The topic of leadership has been addressed and applied for millennia. Yet, it is only within the past 80 years that leadership has been a topic of serious discussion. It is important to understand variables relevant to effective leadership. Gender is one such variable that must be examined with regard to optimizing leadership effectiveness. The topic of gender and leadership deserves serious and thoughtful consideration and discussion because of professional, political, cultural, and personal realities of the twenty‐first century. Women and men have been, are, and should be leaders. Gender must be considered to determine how each leader can reach maximum potential and effectiveness. The FourCe‐PITO conceptual framework of leadership is designed to help guide leadership development and education. The present chapter uses this conceptual framework of leadership to discuss how consideration of gender may affect and optimize leadership development and effectiveness. It is the goal of this chapter to lay out the issues that educators of leaders, potential leaders, and “practicing” leaders should be aware of, to achieve success for the good of the groups and individuals they have the responsibility to lead

Reversible Fluorination of Graphene: towards a Two-Dimensional Wide Bandgap Semiconductor

We report the synthesis and evidence of graphene fluoride, a two-dimensional wide bandgap semiconductor derived from graphene. Graphene fluoride exhibits hexagonal crystalline order and strongly insulating behavior with resistance exceeding 10 G$\Omega$ at room temperature. Electron transport in graphene fluoride is well described by variable-range hopping in two dimensions due to the presence of localized states in the band gap. Graphene obtained through the reduction of graphene fluoride is highly conductive, exhibiting a resistivity of less than 100 k$\Omega$ at room temperature. Our approach provides a new path to reversibly engineer the band structure and conductivity of graphene for electronic and optical applications.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures, revtex, to appear in PR

Direct observation and imaging of a spin-wave soliton with p−p-like symmetry

The prediction and realization of magnetic excitations driven by electrical currents via the spin transfer torque effect, enables novel magnetic nano-devices where spin-waves can be used to process and store information. The functional control of such devices relies on understanding the properties of non-linear spin-wave excitations. It has been demonstrated that spin waves can show both an itinerant character, but also appear as localized solitons. So far, it was assumed that localized solitons have essentially cylindrical, $s-$like symmetry. Using a newly developed high-sensitivity time-resolved magnetic x-ray microscopy, we instead observe the emergence of a novel localized soliton excitation with a nodal line, i.e. with $p-$like symmetry. Micromagnetic simulations identify the physical mechanism that controls the transition from $s-$ to $p-$like solitons. Our results suggest a potential new pathway to design artificial atoms with tunable dynamical states using nanoscale magnetic devices