Do reputable issuers provide better-quality securitizations?

JEL Classification: G21; G24; G28We examine the link between issuer reputation and mortgage-backed security (MBS) performance using a sample of 4,247 European MBS issued between 1999 and 2007. We measure performance with credit rating downgrades and delinquencies and track their changes over the long term. We find that, overall, MBS sold by reputable issuers are collateralised by higher quality asset pools which have lower delinquency rates and are less likely to be downgraded. However, as credit standards declined during the boom period of 2005-2007, asset pools securitized by reputable issuers were of worse quality compared to those securitized by less reputable issuers. Therefore, reputation as a self-disciplining mechanism failed to incentivise the production of high quality securities during the credit boom

HIV prevalence and behavioral studies in female sex workers in Togo: a decline in the prevalence between 2005 and 2011

Introduction: We determined the sero-prevalence of HIV among female sex workers (FSWs) in Togo identified their sexual risk behaviors.Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study from 17 to 27 December, 2011 on 1106 FSWs in Togo. Venous sample were collected to estimate HIV prevalence as per national algorithms. Behavior data were collected by interviewer-administered questionnaires. Results: Of the 1106 FSWs (mean age = 27.6 years) surveyed, 17% and 63% had their first sexual intercourse before the age of 15 and 18 years respectively. Overall, 43.4% of the FSWs had more than seven clients per week. Most FSWs (95%) said they had sex using a condom in their lifetime while 8.8% had used a condom during their last sexual intercourse. About 79% of FSWs used a condom during their sexual encounters the previous week and 11.6% had used a condom during each of their sexual encounters the previous day. Most FSWs (62.2%) reported to have been tested for HIV. Of these, 145 (13.1%) were HIV positive. HIV sero-prevalence decreased from 19.4% in the south to 7.5% in the north of the country. Behaviors associated with FSW being HIV positive included: FSW having more than 7 clients per week (p<0.001), not using condoms at every intercourse act (p=0.003) or during the last sexual encounter (p=0.006) and trading sex in brothels (p<0.001). Conclusion: We estimate HIV sero-prevalence among FSWs in 2011 to be 13.1% in Togo, significantly lower than a prevalence of 29.5% estimated previously in 2005. Inconsistent use of condoms was identified as associated with high risk factor for acquiring HIV.Key words: Sex workers, HIV, sexual behavior, Tog

Financial Inclusion in China: Use of Credit

Limited access to credit can cause financial vulnerability for a household and economic loss for a country. Previous studies have shown that only small portions of populations in developing countries use formal credit, but few studies have focused on Chinese populations. Analyzing data from the 2011 China Household Financial Survey, this study explored Chinese households’ credit use. Over half of the sample (53.21%) reported using credit, and only 19.77% of the sample used formal credit. Use of formal credit was associated with the socioeconomic characteristics of household heads (e.g., employment and education) and of households (e.g., income and net worth). The findings suggest that promoting financial inclusion in China involves expanding access to formal credit among socially and economically disadvantaged households

May Measurement Month 2018: a pragmatic global screening campaign to raise awareness of blood pressure by the International Society of Hypertension

Aims Raised blood pressure (BP) is the biggest contributor to mortality and disease burden worldwide and fewer than half of those with hypertension are aware of it. May Measurement Month (MMM) is a global campaign set up in 2017, to raise awareness of high BP and as a pragmatic solution to a lack of formal screening worldwide. The 2018 campaign was expanded, aiming to include more participants and countries. Methods and results Eighty-nine countries participated in MMM 2018. Volunteers (≥18 years) were recruited through opportunistic sampling at a variety of screening sites. Each participant had three BP measurements and completed a questionnaire on demographic, lifestyle, and environmental factors. Hypertension was defined as a systolic BP ≥140 mmHg or diastolic BP ≥90 mmHg, or taking antihypertensive medication. In total, 74.9% of screenees provided three BP readings. Multiple imputation using chained equations was used to impute missing readings. 1 504 963 individuals (mean age 45.3 years; 52.4% female) were screened. After multiple imputation, 502 079 (33.4%) individuals had hypertension, of whom 59.5% were aware of their diagnosis and 55.3% were taking antihypertensive medication. Of those on medication, 60.0% were controlled and of all hypertensives, 33.2% were controlled. We detected 224 285 individuals with untreated hypertension and 111 214 individuals with inadequately treated (systolic BP ≥ 140 mmHg or diastolic BP ≥ 90 mmHg) hypertension. Conclusion May Measurement Month expanded significantly compared with 2017, including more participants in more countries. The campaign identified over 335 000 adults with untreated or inadequately treated hypertension. In the absence of systematic screening programmes, MMM was effective at raising awareness at least among these individuals at risk

Non-Standard Errors

In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: Non-standard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for better reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants

Non-standard errors

In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: Non-standard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for better reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants

Oil price effects on optimal extraction–exploration and offshore entities: an applied-theoretical and empirical investigation in oil-rich economies

We present a novel open-economy endogenous growth framework that integrates an optimal extraction-to-exploration (“extraction rate”) problem and a principal–agent style offshore investment and appropriation choice problem. Using a combination of applied-theoretical simulation and econometric analyses, we investigate the nexus between oil price and the extraction rate, as well as the relationship between extraction rate and offshore appropriation, focusing on offshore entities in tax havens associated with 31 oil-rich economies from 1979 to 2020. Consistent with recent literature and aggregate evidence, our benchmark simulation results find the first nexus to be negative, but positive if we impose a decreasing return to exploration specification. Regarding the second nexus, except for economies with large initial net foreign asset (NFA) positions, we find a positive association between offshore inactivation and the extraction rate. We also present empirical evidence to corroborate the benchmark results (with constant returns to exploration): a negative association between oil prices and extraction rates, which is further associated with a lower number of offshore entities

Do investors value frequent issuers in securitization?

We assess the value of frequent issuers to investors in securitization markets by examining the initial yield spread of 6,132 European mortgage-backed securities (MBS), covering a 20-year period between 1999 and 2018. We find that frequent issuers have certification value, and it increases as the credit cycle approaches its peak, as lending standards loosen, and information asymmetries in securitization markets increase. Frequent issuers are valued more favourably on riskier, difficult to evaluate MBS. We find that after the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors began to attribute more value to frequent issuers, regardless of MBS credit quality. We also find that in the pre-crisis period, investors required higher yields to compensate for perceived rating shopping, which is not observed after the GFC. Finally, we show that investors expect higher yields on deals closed by subsidiaries of foreign banks