Analyzing the Hypervolume of Plant Functional Traits in the Sierra Nevada Mountain Range

Studying Earth’s biodiversity is important in understanding how ecosystems are changing in response to environmental stressors. Particularly, monitoring Earth via remote sensing can give us high-resolution data of plant functional traits, such as canopy height, leaf mass per area (LMA), and leaf nitrogen content, which provide insight into ecosystem changes. We mapped out remote sensing airborne data from the Sierra Nevada Mountain Range in California and used R to create a hypervolume of the vegetated area. Hypervolumes are useful in creating a three-dimensional visualization of data to understand the relationships among different traits. We computed the three-dimensional space of the intersection of various functional traits by logarithmically transforming the values from the data. Additionally, we conducted fieldwork in the Angeles National Forest to validate remote sensing data of plant functional traits in the area. We can use hypervolume analyses and in-situ data to better understand how functional traits contribute to the changes we observe in the biodiversity of ecosystems

TESTING FOR OPTIMAL LARGE-SCALE VEGETATION PROPERTIES FOR MAXIMUM TERRESTRIAL PRODUCTIVITY AND QUANTIFYING FUTURE UNCERTAINTY OF VEGETATION RESPONSE TO ANTICIPATED CLIMATE CHANGE

In this study, I present a new approach to quantifying a range of uncertainty associated with the carbon-climate feedback over the period 1850 to 2100 within an earth system model of intermediate complexity. The degree to which terrestrial vegetation adaptively self-organizes to shape its own climatic conditions is still an open question. Nonetheless, one can simulate a 'best case' scenario, in which terrestrial productivity is periodically maximized with respect to several macroscopic vegetation parameters, commonly held constant in other models such as maximum stomatal conductance. The results of this 'dynamically optimized' simulation are compared to a simulation where the vegetation parameters are held static at the values optimized for pre-industrial conditions. With this comparison, the degree to which terrestrial productivity is underestimated when vegetation parameterizations remain static compared to those reflecting optimal adaptation to new conditions can be quantified

Assessing Long-Distance Atmospheric Transport of Soilborne Plant Pathogens

Pathogenic fungi are a leading cause of crop disease and primarily spread through microscopic, durable spores adapted differentially for both persistence and dispersal. Computational Earth System Models and air pollution models have been used to simulate atmospheric spore transport for aerial-dispersal-adapted (airborne) rust diseases, but the importance of atmospheric spore transport for soil-dispersal-adapted (soilborne) diseases remains unknown. This study adapts the Community Atmosphere Model, the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model, to simulate the global transport of the plant pathogenic soilborne fungus Fusarium oxysporum, F. oxy. Our sensitivity study assesses the model's accuracy in long-distance aerosol transport and the impact of deposition rate on long-distance spore transport in Summer 2020 during a major dust transport event from Northern Sub-Saharan Africa to the Caribbean and southeastern U.S. We find that decreasing wet and dry deposition rates by an order of magnitude improves representation of long distance, trans-Atlantic dust transport. Simulations also suggest that a small number of viable spores can survive trans-Atlantic transport to be deposited in agricultural zones. This number is dependent on source spore parameterization, which we improved through a literature search to yield a global map of F. oxy spore distribution in source agricultural soils. Using this map and aerosol transport modeling, we show how viable spore numbers in the atmosphere decrease with distance traveled and offer a novel danger index for viable spore deposition in agricultural zones

A Suite of High-Resolution Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Simulations in Support of the OCO-3 Snapshot Area Mapping (SAM) Mode Observation: PSU-WRF, CSU-OLAM and NASA GEOS

Cities and power plants are responsible more than 70% of GHG emissions. The emissions from the subnational localized sources need to be accurately quantified and properly managed in order to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goals. The accurate estimation of these emission is also crucial for assessing the capacity of natural sinks to uptake the carbon released into the atmosphere that ultimately defines our emission allowance for the 1.5 or 2.0 degree temperature goals. New data collected by the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 3 (OCO-3) Snapshot Area Mapping (SAM) observations should provide a tremendous new opportunity for us to study CO2 emissions from targeted large localized sources, such as cities, power plants and beyond. Since 2018 (prior to the OCO-3 launch), we have studied the observational strategies for the SAM mode observation in order to collect the useful data for estimating CO2 emissions from target sources. To maximize the benefit of the SAM mode observation data for quantifying CO2 emission, it is important to define how to observe the localized sources depending on the local environmental and emission specificities. We employ a suite of state-of-the-art CO2 modeling systems, such as PSU's WRF-CO2, CSU's OLAM and NASA's GEOS models. All of these CO2 modeling systems are prescribedwith the high-resolution fuel CO2 emission estimates from the ODIAC data product to achieve realistic urban CO2 variations. We focus on cities with established ground-based observation networks, such as Los Angeles, Indianapolis, and Paris. We have examined the urban emission signal detectability in response to the influence of local background conditions that can observed by the SAM and biospheric contributions that will be a new challenge for urban emission inverse estimation. Based on the results of our simulation experiments, we plan to propose city-specific observation strategies. Upon the availability of the OCO-3 data, we will attempt to estimate city emissions using inverse models. We also developed synthetic OCO-3 data using NASA's GEOS5 model, which should be useful to assess the utility of the OCO-3 data in combination with data collected by carbon satellites in other orbits, such as NASA's OCO-2 and Japanese GOSAT-1/2. The synthetic data also provide an opportunity to study the errors due to clouds and aerosols, which have been not fully studied in the past

BII-Implementation: The causes and consequences of plant biodiversity across scales in a rapidly changing world

The proposed Biology Integration Institute will bring together two major research institutions in the Upper Midwest—the University of Minnesota (UMN) and University of Wisconsin-Madison (UW)—to investigate the causes and consequences of plant biodiversity across scales in a rapidly changing world—from genes and molecules within cells and tissues to communities, ecosystems, landscapes and the biosphere. The Institute focuses on plant biodiversity, defined broadly to encompass the heterogeneity within life that occurs from the smallest to the largest biological scales. A premise of the Institute is that life is envisioned as occurring at different scales nested within several contrasting conceptions of biological hierarchies, defined by the separate but related fields of physiology, evolutionary biology and ecology. The Institute will emphasize the use of ‘spectral biology’—detection of biological properties based on the interaction of light energy with matter—and process-oriented predictive models to investigate the processes by which biological components at one scale give rise to emergent properties at higher scales. Through an iterative process that harnesses cutting edge technologies to observe a suite of carefully designed empirical systems—including the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) and some of the world’s longest running and state-of-the-art global change experiments—the Institute will advance biological understanding and theory of the causes and consequences of changes in biodiversity and at the interface of plant physiology, ecology and evolution. INTELLECTUAL MERIT The Institute brings together a diverse, gender-balanced and highly productive team with significant leadership experience that spans biological disciplines and career stages and is poised to integrate biology in new ways. Together, the team will harness the potential of spectral biology, experiments, observations and synthetic modeling in a manner never before possible to transform understanding of how variation within and among biological scales drives plant and ecosystem responses to global change over diurnal, seasonal and millennial time scales. In doing so, it will use and advance state-of-the-art theory. The institute team posits that the designed projects will unearth transformative understanding and biological rules at each of the various scales that will enable an unprecedented capacity to discern the linkages between physiological, ecological and evolutionary processes in relation to the multi-dimensional nature of biodiversity in this time of massive planetary change. A strength of the proposed Institute is that it leverages prior federal investments in research and formalizes partnerships with foreign institutions heavily invested in related biodiversity research. Most of the planned projects leverage existing research initiatives, infrastructure, working groups, experiments, training programs, and public outreach infrastructure, all of which are already highly synergistic and collaborative, and will bring together members of the overall research and training team. BROADER IMPACTS A central goal of the proposed Institute is to train the next generation of diverse integrative biologists. Post-doctoral, graduate student and undergraduate trainees, recruited from non-traditional and underrepresented groups, including through formal engagement with Native American communities, will receive a range of mentoring and training opportunities. Annual summer training workshops will be offered at UMN and UW as well as training experiences with the Global Change and Biodiversity Research Priority Program (URPP-GCB) at the University of Zurich (UZH) and through the Canadian Airborne Biodiversity Observatory (CABO). The Institute will engage diverse K-12 audiences, the general public and Native American communities through Market Science modules, Minute Earth videos, a museum exhibit and public engagement and educational activities through the Bell Museum of Natural History, the Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve (CCESR) and the Wisconsin Tribal Conservation Association

Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2.

Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4 °C of global land surface warming (510-758 ppm of CO2), vegetation carbon increases by 52-477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean areas, southwestern Africa, and southwestern Australia. Four vegetation models display discontinuities across 4 °C of warming, indicating global thresholds in the balance of positive and negative influences on productivity and biomass. In contrast to previous global vegetation model studies, we emphasize the importance of uncertainties in projected changes in carbon residence times. We find, when all seven models are considered for one representative concentration pathway × general circulation model combination, such uncertainties explain 30% more variation in modeled vegetation carbon change than responses of net primary productivity alone, increasing to 151% for non-HYBRID4 models. A change in research priorities away from production and toward structural dynamics and demographic processes is recommended.The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7 2007-2013) under Grant 238366. R.B., R.K., R.D., A.W., and P.D.F. were supported by the Joint Department of Energy and Climate Change/Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). A.I. and K.N. were supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-10) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), and we thank the climate modeling groups responsible for the GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M models for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the US Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. This work has been conducted under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). The ISI-MIP Fast Track project was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) with project funding Reference 01LS1201A.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from PNAS via http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.122247711

Multisectoral Climate Impact Hotspots in a Warming World

The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity's diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 degC above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 degC. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty