Putting into action the REGCM4.6 regional climate model for the study of climate change, variability and modeling over Central America and Mexico

What: International experts and attendees from several countries of Central America, Mexico, the Caribbean (CAM), and South America (SA) met to discuss regional issues on climate variability and climate change to learn the use of the non-hydrostatic version of the International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) RegCM4.6 model, and to establish a regional modeling scientific community for understanding the physics of climate processes and the generation of regional climate change scenarios. When: 14-18 November 2016. Where: Center for Geophysical Research (CIGEFI in Spanish) and School of Physics, University of Costa Rica (UCR), San José, Costa Rica.Ministerio de Ciencia, Tecnología y Telecomunicaciones/[FI-0015-16]/MICITT/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B0-065]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-A8-606]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B0-130]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-A9-224]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-A7-002]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B0-402]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B3-600]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B4-227]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B5-296]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[808-A9-180]/UCR/Costa RicaUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI

Projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the United States, Central America and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMs

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset is used to examine projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the United States (U.S.), Central America and the Caribbean. The changes are computed using an ensemble of 31 models for three future time slices (2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 ensemble reproduces the observed annual cycle and distribution of mean annual temperature and precipitation with biases between − 0.93 and 1.27 °C and − 37.90 to 58.45%, respectively, for most of the region. However, modeled precipitation is too large over the western and Midwestern U.S. during winter and spring and over the North American monsoon region in summer, while too small over southern Central America. Temperature is projected to increase over the entire domain under all three SSPs, by as much as 6 °C under SSP5-8.5, and with more pronounced increases in the northern latitudes over the regions that receive snow in the present climate. Annual precipitation projections for the end of the twenty-frst century have more uncertainty, as expected, and exhibit a meridional dipole-like pattern, with precipitation increasing by 10–30% over much of the U.S. and decreasing by 10–40% over Central America and the Caribbean, especially over the monsoon region. Seasonally, precipitation over the eastern and central subregions is projected to increase during winter and spring and decrease during summer and autumn. Over the monsoon region and Central America, precipitation is projected to decrease in all seasons except autumn. The analysis was repeated on a subset of 9 models with the best performance in the reference period; however, no signifcant diference was found, suggesting that model bias is not strongly infuencing the projections.Universidad de Costa Rica/[805-B9-454]/UCR/Costa RicaNational Science Foundation/[AGS-1849654]/NSF/Estados UnidosNational Science Foundation/[AGS-1623912]/NSF/Estados UnidosDepartment of Energy/[2316‐T849‐08]/DOE/Estados UnidosNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/[2316‐T849‐08]/NOAA/Estados UnidosUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI)UCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigación en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología (CIMAR

Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

Funder: European Society of Intensive Care Medicine; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013347Funder: Flemish Society for Critical Care NursesAbstract: Purpose: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are particularly susceptible to developing pressure injuries. Epidemiologic data is however unavailable. We aimed to provide an international picture of the extent of pressure injuries and factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries in adult ICU patients. Methods: International 1-day point-prevalence study; follow-up for outcome assessment until hospital discharge (maximum 12 weeks). Factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injury and hospital mortality were assessed by generalised linear mixed-effects regression analysis. Results: Data from 13,254 patients in 1117 ICUs (90 countries) revealed 6747 pressure injuries; 3997 (59.2%) were ICU-acquired. Overall prevalence was 26.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.9–27.3). ICU-acquired prevalence was 16.2% (95% CI 15.6–16.8). Sacrum (37%) and heels (19.5%) were most affected. Factors independently associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries were older age, male sex, being underweight, emergency surgery, higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Braden score 3 days, comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunodeficiency), organ support (renal replacement, mechanical ventilation on ICU admission), and being in a low or lower-middle income-economy. Gradually increasing associations with mortality were identified for increasing severity of pressure injury: stage I (odds ratio [OR] 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.8), stage II (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.4–1.9), and stage III or worse (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.3–3.3). Conclusion: Pressure injuries are common in adult ICU patients. ICU-acquired pressure injuries are associated with mainly intrinsic factors and mortality. Optimal care standards, increased awareness, appropriate resource allocation, and further research into optimal prevention are pivotal to tackle this important patient safety threat

Correction to: Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

The original version of this article unfortunately contained a mistake

Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

Funder: European Society of Intensive Care Medicine; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013347Funder: Flemish Society for Critical Care NursesAbstract: Purpose: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are particularly susceptible to developing pressure injuries. Epidemiologic data is however unavailable. We aimed to provide an international picture of the extent of pressure injuries and factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries in adult ICU patients. Methods: International 1-day point-prevalence study; follow-up for outcome assessment until hospital discharge (maximum 12 weeks). Factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injury and hospital mortality were assessed by generalised linear mixed-effects regression analysis. Results: Data from 13,254 patients in 1117 ICUs (90 countries) revealed 6747 pressure injuries; 3997 (59.2%) were ICU-acquired. Overall prevalence was 26.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.9–27.3). ICU-acquired prevalence was 16.2% (95% CI 15.6–16.8). Sacrum (37%) and heels (19.5%) were most affected. Factors independently associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries were older age, male sex, being underweight, emergency surgery, higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Braden score 3 days, comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunodeficiency), organ support (renal replacement, mechanical ventilation on ICU admission), and being in a low or lower-middle income-economy. Gradually increasing associations with mortality were identified for increasing severity of pressure injury: stage I (odds ratio [OR] 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.8), stage II (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.4–1.9), and stage III or worse (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.3–3.3). Conclusion: Pressure injuries are common in adult ICU patients. ICU-acquired pressure injuries are associated with mainly intrinsic factors and mortality. Optimal care standards, increased awareness, appropriate resource allocation, and further research into optimal prevention are pivotal to tackle this important patient safety threat

Cut-off Lows in the South Africa region and their contribution to precipitation.

21 pagesInternational audienceThe contribution of Cut-off Lows (CoLs) to precipitation and extreme rainfall frequency in South Africa has been quantified from 402 station records over the period 1979-2006. Firstly, 500 hPa CoL trajectories over Southern Africa and surrounding oceans were determined and their features thoroughly analyzed. In a second step, using daily precipitable water, outgoing long wave radiation data and station rainfall records, an area was defined where the occurrence of CoLs is associated with rainfall over South Africa. CoLs transiting in the 2.5°E-32.5°E/20°S-45°S are more likely to produce precipitation over the country. When 500 hPa CoLs are centered just off the west coast of the country (around 15°E/32.5°S) their impact is substantial in term of daily rainfall intensity and spatial coverage. CoL rainy days have been studied and it is shown that they significantly contribute to precipitation in South Africa, more strongly along the south and east coasts as well as inland, over the transition zone between the summer and winter rainfall domains where they contribute between 25 to more than 35 % of annual accumulation. At the country scale, CoL rainfall is more intense and widespread in spring than during other seasons. Over the analyzed period, a significant trend in annual CoLs' frequency shows an increase of about 25 %. This increase is mainly realized in spring and in a lesser extent in summer. This trend is accompanied by a significant increase in the frequency of CoL rainy days specifically along the south coast and over the East of the country during the spring-summer period. In parallel, it is shown that from late spring until summer CoLs' frequency varies significantly accordingly with large scale circulation modes of the Southern Hemisphere such as the Pacific South American pattern (PSA). This positive trend in CoLs' frequency may be related with the positive trend in the PSA during the spring-summer period over the three last decades

The role of beach morphology and mid-century climate change effects on wave runup and storm impact on the northern Yucatan coast

Wave runup is a relevant parameter to determine the storm impact on barrier islands. Here, the role of the beach morphology on wave runup and storm impact was investigated at four coastal communities located on the northern Yucatan coast. Current wave conditions based on regional wind simulations, topo-bathymetric transects measured at each location, and a nonlinear wave transformation model were employed to reconstruct multi-year runup time series. Dune morphology features and extreme water levels (excluding storm surge contributions) were further employed to determine the storm impact at each site for different return periods. Despite the similar offshore conditions along the coast, extreme water levels (i.e., runup and setup) showed intersite differences that were mainly ascribed to subaerial and submerged morphological features. Numerical results showed that the average surf zone beach slope, sandbars, berm, and dune elevation played an important role in controlling extreme water levels and storm impact at the study sites under the present climate. Moreover, in order to assess the potential effect of climate change on coastal flooding, we analyzed wave runup and storm impact in the best-preserved site by considering wave conditions and sea level rise (SLR) projections under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Modelling results suggest no significant increase in the storm impact regime between the present and future conditions in the study area unless SLR is considered. It was found that to accurately estimate SLR contribution, it should be incorporated into mean sea level prior to performing numerical wave runup simulations, rather than simply adding it to the resulting wave-induced water levels.This research was funded by CONACYT through projects APN-4890, CB-284819 and Cátedras 1146, and by the UNAM Engineering Institute (project 9601). We acknowledge José López González, Juan Alberto Gómez Liera, and Alec Torres-Freyermuth for field support, Gonzalo Martín Ruiz and Pablo Ruiz-Salcines for IT technical support. We thank Delft University of Technology for making the development of SWAN and SWASH models possible.Peer ReviewedObjectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::13 - Acció per al ClimaPostprint (published version

Spatial distribution of precipitation annual cycles over South Africa in 10 CORDEX regional climate model present-day simulations.

This study presents an evaluation of the ability of 10 regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment – Africa (CORDEX-Africa) to reproduce the present-day spatial distribution of annual cycles of precipitation over the South African sector. As found in previous studies, annual mean precipitation is quasi-systematically overestimated by the RCMs over a large part of southern Africa south of about 20°S and more strongly over South Africa. The spatial analysis of precipitation over the studied region shows that in most models the distribution of biases appears to be linked to orography. Wet biases are quasi-systematic in regions with higher elevation with inversely neutral to dry biases particularly in the coastal fringes. This spatial pattern of biases is particularly obvious during summer and specifically atthe beginning of the rainy season (November and December) when the wet biases are found to be the strongest across all models.Applying a k-means algorithm, a classification of annual cycles is performed using observed precipitation data, and is compared with those derived from modeled data. It isfound that the in-homogeneity of the spatial and temporal distribution of biases tends toimpact the modeled seasonality of precipitation. Generally, the pattern of rainfall seasonality in the ensemble mean of the 10 RCMs tends to be shifted to the southwest. This spatial shift is mainly linked to a strong overestimation of convective precipitation at the beginning of the rainy season over the plateau inducing an early annual peak and to an underestimation of stratiform rainfall in winter and spring over southwestern South Africa.Finally, most RCMs and their ensemble mean perform poorer than ERA-Interim (the forcing data) in simulating the spatial distribution of 1- the annual mean precipitation and 2-the phasing of annual cycles of precipitation, over the region of South Africa.JRC.H.7-Climate Risk Managemen