Determining the probability of cyanobacterial blooms: the application of Bayesian networks in multiple lake systems

A Bayesian network model was developed to assess the combined influence of nutrient conditions and climate on the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms within lakes of diverse hydrology and nutrient supply. Physicochemical, biological, and meteorological observations were collated from 20 lakes located at different latitudes and characterized by a range of sizes and trophic states. Using these data, we built a Bayesian network to (1) analyze the sensitivity of cyanobacterial bloom development to different environmental factors and (2) determine the probability that cyanobacterial blooms would occur. Blooms were classified in three categories of hazard (low, moderate, and high) based on cell abundances. The most important factors determining cyanobacterial bloom occurrence were water temperature, nutrient availability, and the ratio of mixing depth to euphotic depth. The probability of cyanobacterial blooms was evaluated under different combinations of total phosphorus and water temperature. The Bayesian network was then applied to quantify the probability of blooms under a future climate warming scenario. The probability of the "high hazardous" category of cyanobacterial blooms increased 5% in response to either an increase in water temperature of 0.8°C (initial water temperature above 24°C) or an increase in total phosphorus from 0.01 mg/L to 0.02 mg/L. Mesotrophic lakes were particularly vulnerable to warming. Reducing nutrient concentrations counteracts the increased cyanobacterial risk associated with higher temperatures

Forest defoliator outbreaks alter nutrient cycling in northern waters.

Insect defoliators alter biogeochemical cycles from land into receiving waters by consuming terrestrial biomass and releasing biolabile frass. Here, we related insect outbreaks to water chemistry across 12 boreal lake catchments over 32-years. We report, on average, 27% lower dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and 112% higher dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) concentrations in lake waters when defoliators covered entire catchments and reduced leaf area. DOC reductions reached 32% when deciduous stands dominated. Within-year changes in DOC from insect outbreaks exceeded 86% of between-year trends across a larger dataset of 266 boreal and north temperate lakes from 1990 to 2016. Similarly, within-year increases in DIN from insect outbreaks exceeded local, between-year changes in DIN by 12-times, on average. As insect defoliator outbreaks occur at least every 5 years across a wider 439,661 km2 boreal ecozone of Ontario, we suggest they are an underappreciated driver of biogeochemical cycles in forest catchments of this region.Natural Environment Research Council (NE/L006561/1) Ontario Centres of Excellence (OCE/27649) Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC/509182-17

The extent and variability of storm-induced temperature changes in lakes measured with long-term and high-frequency data

The intensity and frequency of storms are projected to increase in many regions of the world because of climate change. Storms can alter environmental conditions in many ecosystems. In lakes and reservoirs, storms can reduce epilimnetic temperatures from wind-induced mixing with colder hypolimnetic waters, direct precipitation to the lake's surface, and watershed runoff. We analyzed 18 long-term and high-frequency lake datasets from 11 countries to assess the magnitude of wind- vs. rainstorm-induced changes in epilimnetic temperature. We found small day-to-day epilimnetic temperature decreases in response to strong wind and heavy rain during stratified conditions. Day-to-day epilimnetic temperature decreased, on average, by 0.28°C during the strongest windstorms (storm mean daily wind speed among lakes: 6.7 ± 2.7 m s−1, 1 SD) and by 0.15°C after the heaviest rainstorms (storm mean daily rainfall: 21.3 ± 9.0 mm). The largest decreases in epilimnetic temperature were observed ≥2 d after sustained strong wind or heavy rain (top 5th percentile of wind and rain events for each lake) in shallow and medium-depth lakes. The smallest decreases occurred in deep lakes. Epilimnetic temperature change from windstorms, but not rainstorms, was negatively correlated with maximum lake depth. However, even the largest storm-induced mean epilimnetic temperature decreases were typically <2°C. Day-to-day temperature change, in the absence of storms, often exceeded storm-induced temperature changes. Because storm-induced temperature changes to lake surface waters were minimal, changes in other limnological variables (e.g., nutrient concentrations or light) from storms may have larger impacts on biological communities than temperature changes

The jellification of north temperate lakes.

Calcium (Ca) concentrations are decreasing in softwater lakes across eastern North America and western Europe. Using long-term contemporary and palaeo-environmental field data, we show that this is precipitating a dramatic change in Canadian lakes: the replacement of previously dominant pelagic herbivores (Ca-rich Daphnia species) by Holopedium glacialis, a jelly-clad, Ca-poor competitor. In some lakes, this transformation is being facilitated by increases in macro-invertebrate predation, both from native (Chaoborus spp.) and introduced (Bythotrephes longimanus) zooplanktivores, to which Holopedium, with its jelly coat, is relatively invulnerable. Greater representation by Holopedium within cladoceran zooplankton communities will reduce nutrient transfer through food webs, given their lower phosphorus content relative to daphniids, and greater absolute abundances may pose long-term problems to water users. The dominance of jelly-clad zooplankton will likely persist while lakewater Ca levels remain low.This work was primarily supported by grants from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and funding from the Ontario Ministry of the Environment.This is the accepted manuscript. The final version is available at http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/282/1798/20142449

Lake-size dependency of wind shear and convection as controls on gas exchange

High-frequency physical observations from 40 temperate lakes were used to examine the relative contributions of wind shear (u*) and convection (w*) to turbulence in the surface mixed layer. Seasonal patterns of u* and w* were dissimilar; u* was often highest in the spring, while w * increased throughout the summer to a maximum in early fall. Convection was a larger mixed-layer turbulence source than wind shear (u */w*-1 for lakes* and w* differ in temporal pattern and magnitude across lakes, both convection and wind shear should be considered in future formulations of lake-air gas exchange, especially for small lakes. © 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.Jordan S. Read, David P. Hamilton, Ankur R. Desai, Kevin C. Rose, Sally MacIntyre, John D. Lenters, Robyn L. Smyth, Paul C. Hanson, Jonathan J. Cole, Peter A. Staehr, James A. Rusak, Donald C. Pierson, Justin D. Brookes, Alo Laas, and Chin H. W

Citizen science shows systematic changes in the temperature difference between air and inland waters with global warming

Citizen science projects have a long history in ecological studies. The research usefulness of such projects is dependent on applying simple and standardized methods. Here, we conducted a citizen science project that involved more than 3500 Swedish high school students to examine the temperature difference between surface water and the overlying air (Tw-Ta) as a proxy for sensible heat flux (QH). If QH is directed upward, corresponding to positive Tw-Ta, it can enhance CO2 and CH4 emissions from inland waters, thereby contributing to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The students found mostly negative Tw-Ta across small ponds, lakes, streams/rivers and the sea shore (i.e. downward QH), with Tw-Ta becoming increasingly negative with increasing Ta. Further examination of Tw-Ta using high-frequency temperature data from inland waters across the globe confirmed that Tw-Ta is linearly related to Ta. Using the longest available high-frequency temperature time series from Lake Erken, Sweden, we found a rapid increase in the occasions of negative Tw-Ta with increasing annual mean Ta since 1989. From these results, we can expect that ongoing and projected global warming will result in increasingly negative Tw-Ta, thereby reducing CO2 and CH4 transfer velocities from inland waters into the atmosphere

Response of lake metabolism to catchment inputs inferred using high-frequency lake and stream data from across the northern hemisphere

In lakes, the rates of gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (R), and net ecosystem production (NEP) are often controlled by resource availability. Herein, we explore how catchment vs. within lake predictors of metabolism compare using data from 16 lakes spanning 39°N to 64°N, a range of inflowing streams, and trophic status. For each lake, we combined stream loads of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) with lake DOC, TN, and TP concentrations and high frequency in situ monitoring of dissolved oxygen. We found that stream load stoichiometry indicated lake stoichiometry for C : N and C : P (r2 = 0.74 and r2 = 0.84, respectively), but not for N : P (r2 = 0.04). As we found a strong positive correlation between TN and TP, we only used TP in our statistical models. For the catchment model, GPP and R were best predicted by DOC load, TP load, and load N : P (R2 = 0.85 and R2 = 0.82, respectively). For the lake model, GPP and R were best predicted by TP concentrations (R2 = 0.86 and R2 = 0.67, respectively). The inclusion of N : P in the catchment model, but not the lake model, suggests that both N and P regulate metabolism and that organisms may be responding more strongly to catchment inputs than lake resources. Our models predicted NEP poorly, though it is unclear why. Overall, our work stresses the importance of characterizing lake catchment loads to predict metabolic rates, a result that may be particularly important in catchments experiencing changing hydrologic regimes related to global environmental change.publishedVersio

Engaging stakeholders across a socio-environmentally diverse network of water research sites in North and South America

Maintaining and restoring freshwater ecosystem services in the face of local and global change requires adaptive research that effectively engages stakeholders. However, there is a lack of understanding and consensus in the research community regarding where, when, and which stakeholders should be engaged and what kind of researcher should do the engaging (e.g., physical, ecological, or social scientists). This paper explores stakeholder engagement across a developing network of aquatic research sites in North and South America with wide ranging cultural norms, social values, resource management paradigms, and eco-physical conditions. With seven sites in six countries, we found different degrees of engagement were explained by differences in the interests of the stakeholders given the history and perceived urgency of water resource problems as well as differences in the capacities of the site teams to effectively engage given their expertise and resources. We categorized engagement activities and applied Hurlbert and Gupta's split ladder of participation to better understand site differences and distill lessons learned for planning comparative socio-hydrological research and systematic evaluations of the effectiveness of stakeholder engagement approaches. We recommend research networks practice deliberate engagement of stakeholders that adaptively accounts for variations and changes in local socio-hydrologic conditions. This, in turn, requires further efforts to foster the development of well-integrated research teams that attract and retain researchers from multiple social science disciplines and enable training on effective engagement strategies for diverse conditions

Do ecosystem insecurity and social vulnerability lead to failure of water security?

Achieving water security for humans and ecosystems is a pervasive challenge globally. Extensive areas of the Americas are at significant risk of water insecurity, resulting from global-change processes coupled with regional and local impacts. Drought, flooding, and water quality challenges pose significant threats, while at the same time, rapid urban expansion, competing water demands, river modifications, and expanding global markets for water-intensive agricultural products drive water insecurity. This paper takes a social-ecological systems perspective, aiming to identify examples and pathways towards resilient ecosystems and social development. It draws on lessons from two science-policy network projects, one focusing on water scarcity in arid and semi-arid regions of Argentina, Chile, Brazil, Peru, Mexico and the United States; and the second addressing river and lake basins as sentinels of climate variability and human effects on water quantity and quality in Canada, the United States, Argentina, Colombia, Uruguay and Chile. Together, these ?complementary contrasts? provide an analytical basis to empirically examine stakeholder engagement, knowledge co-production and science-policy interaction supporting decision-making to achieve water security. The paper identifies four tenets for decision-making based on water-security-focused global-change science in the Americas: 1) Decision makers should focus on protecting ecosystems because water security (along with food and energy security) depend on them; 2) Water-use and allocation decisions ought to be made considering future environmental and societal vulnerabilities, especially climate projections; 3) Holistic approaches (at basin or other appropriate levels) are best suited to ensure social-ecological system resilience and reduce vulnerability; and 4) It is essential to support local/traditional livelihoods, and underserved populations to achieve equitable water security and ecosystem resilience.Fil: Scott, Christopher A.. University of Arizona; Estados UnidosFil: Zilio, Mariana Ines. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Harmon, Thomas Christopher. University of California; Estados UnidosFil: Zuniga Teran, Adriana. University of Arizona; Estados UnidosFil: Díaz Caravantes, Rolando. El Colegio de Sonora; MéxicoFil: Hoyos, Natalia. Universidad del Norte; ColombiaFil: Perillo, Gerardo Miguel E.. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Meza, Andrés Francisco. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile; ChileFil: Varady, Robert G.. University of Arizona; Estados UnidosFil: Neto, Alfredo Ribeiro. Universidade Federal da Bahia; BrasilFil: Velez, Maria Isabel. University Of Regina; CanadáFil: Martin, Facundo Damian. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto de Ciencias Humanas, Sociales y Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Escobar, Jaime. Universidad del Norte; ColombiaFil: Piccolo, Maria Cintia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Mussetta, Paula Cecilia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto de Ciencias Humanas, Sociales y Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Montenegro, Suzana. Universidade Federal de Pernambuco; BrasilFil: Rusak, James A.. Ontario Ministry Of The Environment; CanadáFil: Pineda, Nicolas. El Colegio de Sonora; Méxic

Engaging stakeholders across a socio-environmentally diverse network of water research sites in North and South America

Maintaining and restoring freshwater ecosystem services in the face of local and global change requires adaptive research that effectively engages stakeholders. However, there is a lack of understanding and consensus in the research community regarding where, when, and which stakeholders should be engaged and what kind of researcher should do the engaging (e.g., physical, ecological, or social scientists). This paper explores stakeholder engagement across a developing network of aquatic research sites in North and South America with wide ranging cultural norms, social values, resource management paradigms, and eco-physical conditions. With seven sites in six countries, we found different degrees of engagement were explained by differences in the interests of the stakeholders given the history and perceived urgency of water resource problems as well as differences in the capacities of the site teams to effectively engage given their expertise and resources. We categorized engagement activities and applied Hurlbert and Gupta's split ladder of participation to better understand site differences and distill lessons learned for planning comparative socio-hydrological research and systematic evaluations of the effectiveness of stakeholder engagement approaches. We recommend research networks practice deliberate engagement of stakeholders that adaptively accounts for variations and changes in local socio-hydrologic conditions. This, in turn, requires further efforts to foster the development of well-integrated research teams that attract and retain researchers from multiple social science disciplines and enable training on effective engagement strategies for diverse conditions.Fil: Smyth, Robyn L.. Bard College; Estados UnidosFil: Fatima, Uroosa. Bard College; Estados UnidosFil: Segarra, Monique. Bard College; Estados UnidosFil: Borre, Lisa. Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies; Estados UnidosFil: Zilio, Mariana Ines. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales del Sur. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Economía. Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales del Sur; ArgentinaFil: Reid, Brian. Universidad Austral de Chile; ChileFil: Pincetl, Stephanie. Institute of the Environment and Sustainability; Estados UnidosFil: Astorga, Anna. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales del Sur. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Economía. Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales del Sur; ArgentinaFil: Huamantinco Cisneros, María Andrea. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Geografía y Turismo; ArgentinaFil: Conde, Sergio Daniel. Universidad de la República; UruguayFil: Harmon, Thomas Christopher. University of California Merced; Estados UnidosFil: Hoyos, Natalia. Universidad del Norte; ColombiaFil: Escobar, Jaime. Universidad del Norte; Colombia. Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute; PanamáFil: Lozoya, Juan Pablo. Universidad de la República; UruguayFil: Perillo, Gerardo Miguel E.. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Geología; ArgentinaFil: Piccolo, Maria Cintia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Geografía y Turismo; ArgentinaFil: Rusak, James A.. Dorset Environmental Science Centre; Canadá. Queens University; CanadáFil: Velez, Maria I.. University of Regina; Canad