Violent Climate Imaginaries: Science-Fiction-Politics

There are many ways in which climate futures can be envisioned, such as global and regional climate models, scenarios of future emission trajectories, or pathways and visions of societal transformation. All these anticipatory practices aim to make the climatic future knowable in the present. In so doing, they quite often envision a climatic future that is inherently violent: a future marked by disasters, wars, mass migration, turmoil, and terror. This working paper seeks to explain the popularity and tenacity of such violent imaginaries of (future) climate change in scientific research, popular culture, and political discourse. For this, it asks two interrelated questions: First, how do violent imaginaries of future climate change come about? Second, why and how do these imaginaries circulate and proliferate? To answer these questions, the paper provides a discussion of the concept of “violence” and elaborates how different forms of it are featured in imaginaries of future climate change. On this basis, the paper then traces three different modes of future-making that together produce and reproduce violent climate imaginaries: modeling the future, writing the future, and visualizing the future. Finally, the paper proposes and discusses several factors that could help explaining the circulation of violent climate imaginaries between the fields of science, fiction, and politics. These factors include the existence of an interdiscourse that bridges different specialized discourses, the broader political economy of imaginaries, interpersonal relations between actors in different fields, and the coproduction of dominant imaginaries with broader technological developments

Violent Climate Imaginaries: Science-Fiction-Politics

There are many ways in which climate futures can be envisioned, such as global and regional climate models, scenarios of future emission trajectories, or pathways and visions of societal transformation. All these anticipatory practices aim to make the climatic future knowable in the present. In so doing, they quite often envision a climatic future that is inherently violent: a future marked by disasters, wars, mass migration, turmoil, and terror. This working paper seeks to explain the popularity and tenacity of such violent imaginaries of (future) climate change in scientific research, popular culture, and political discourse. For this, it asks two interrelated questions: First, how do violent imaginaries of future climate change come about? Second, why and how do these imaginaries circulate and proliferate? To answer these questions, the paper provides a discussion of the concept of “violence” and elaborates how different forms of it are featured in imaginaries of future climate change. On this basis, the paper then traces three different modes of future-making that together produce and reproduce violent climate imaginaries: modeling the future, writing the future, and visualizing the future. Finally, the paper proposes and discusses several factors that could help explaining the circulation of violent climate imaginaries between the fields of science, fiction, and politics. These factors include the existence of an interdiscourse that bridges different specialized discourses, the broader political economy of imaginaries, interpersonal relations between actors in different fields, and the coproduction of dominant imaginaries with broader technological developments

Economic Prosperity as “Narcissistic Filling”: A Missing Link Between Political Attitudes and Right-wing Authoritarianism

An expanded analysis of the origin of the correlation with economic deprivation found in the authors’ representative surveys of right-wing extremist attitudes (such as racism, anti-Semitism, and chauvinism), focusing on the underlying dynamics in Germany and the historical aspect of National Socialism. The growing prosperity of the West German “economic miracle” of the 1950s served a psychosocial “filling function” to block the narcissistic damage caused by confrontation with past crimes and the sense of the nation’s loss of greatness. As this prosperity vanishes for many people during the current economic crisis, the filling comes out and the narcissistic wound opens up. What emerges is both what lies underneath and what has been serving as a defense against it, which involve authoritarian dynamics. Initially, the metaphor of “narcissistic filling” will be developed through our analysis of group discussions conducted as part of our qualitative study (of 2008). The developed hypotheses will thereafter be introduced to our following representative survey (of 2010) and confirmed by means of quantitative methods

Does Hepatic Steatosis Influence the Detection Rate of Metastases in the Hepatobiliary Phase of Gadoxetic Acid-Enhanced MRI?

The aim of this exploratory study was to evaluate the influence of hepatic steatosis on the detection rate of metastases in gadoxetic acid-enhanced liver magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). A total of 50 patients who underwent gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI (unenhanced T1w in- and opposed-phase, T2w fat sat, unenhanced 3D-T1w fat sat and 3-phase dynamic contrast-enhanced (uDP), 3D-T1w fat sat hepatobiliary phase (HP)) were retrospectively included. Two blinded observers (O1/O2) independently assessed the images to determine the detection rate in uDP and HP. The hepatic signal fat fraction (HSFF) was determined as the relative signal intensity reduction in liver parenchyma from in- to opposed-phase images. A total of 451 liver metastases were detected (O1/O2, n = 447/411). O1/O2 detected 10.9%/9.3% of lesions exclusively in uDP and 20.2%/15.5% exclusively in HP. Lesions detected exclusively in uDP were significantly associated with a larger HSFF (area under curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, 0.93; p 30%) is a potential pitfall for the detection of metastases in HP

Arbeitslosigkeit und Leistungsbezug

Inhalt: D Arbeitslosigkeit und Leistungsbezug; D.I Einführung und Resümee; D.II Die Entwicklung der Arbeitslosigkeit nach Rechtskreisen; D.III Qualifikationsspezifische Arbeitslosigkeit; D.IV Arbeitslosigkeit und Gesundheit; D.V Personen und Haushalte im Grundsicherungsbezug; D.VI Verfestigung von Arbeitslosigkeit und Leistungsbezug; D.VII Langzeiterwerbslosigkeit im europäischen Vergleich; D.VIII Jugendarbeitslosigkeit im europäischen Vergleich; Literatur zu Kapitel D

Torn between war and peace: critiquing the use of war to mobilize peaceful climate action

Notable studies have suggested the potentiality of the WWII wartime mobilization as a model for climate change adaptation and/or mitigation. The argument being that we need a similar rapid and total shift in our industrial social and economic environment to prevent or at least address the pending impacts of climate change. This argument and these studies have inspired us to think with them on what it means to use the WWII war analogy as a security claim in energy and climate change debates. Here, we would like to use this opportunity to draw attention to some of the implicit dangers of a call to war in such discussions. Among others we observe, first, the absence of any attention to the actual mobilization policies, in terms of garnishing public support. Second, based on the insights from Critical Security Studies, we question the historical incongruence of the case study especially by comparing the perceived enemy in both cases. Lastly, building on that same security literature, we point to some undesirable and perhaps unintended consequences of the use of war analogies in climate change debates

Gene Circuit Analysis of the Terminal Gap Gene huckebein

The early embryo of Drosophila melanogaster provides a powerful model system to study the role of genes in pattern formation. The gap gene network constitutes the first zygotic regulatory tier in the hierarchy of the segmentation genes involved in specifying the position of body segments. Here, we use an integrative, systems-level approach to investigate the regulatory effect of the terminal gap gene huckebein (hkb) on gap gene expression. We present quantitative expression data for the Hkb protein, which enable us to include hkb in gap gene circuit models. Gap gene circuits are mathematical models of gene networks used as computational tools to extract regulatory information from spatial expression data. This is achieved by fitting the model to gap gene expression patterns, in order to obtain estimates for regulatory parameters which predict a specific network topology. We show how considering variability in the data combined with analysis of parameter determinability significantly improves the biological relevance and consistency of the approach. Our models are in agreement with earlier results, which they extend in two important respects: First, we show that Hkb is involved in the regulation of the posterior hunchback (hb) domain, but does not have any other essential function. Specifically, Hkb is required for the anterior shift in the posterior border of this domain, which is now reproduced correctly in our models. Second, gap gene circuits presented here are able to reproduce mutants of terminal gap genes, while previously published models were unable to reproduce any null mutants correctly. As a consequence, our models now capture the expression dynamics of all posterior gap genes and some variational properties of the system correctly. This is an important step towards a better, quantitative understanding of the developmental and evolutionary dynamics of the gap gene network

About the authors

Research on security-related aspects of climate change is an important element of climate change impact assessments. Hamburg has become a globally recognized center of pertinent analysis of the climate-conflict-nexus. The essays in this collection present a sample of the research conducted from 2009 to 2018 within an interdisciplinary cooperation of experts from Universität Hamburg and other institutions in Hamburg related to the research group “Climate Change and Security” (CLISEC). This collection of critical assessments covers a broad understanding of security, ranging from the question of climate change as a cause of violent conflict to conditions of human security in the Anthropocene. The in-depth analyses utilize a wide array of methodological approaches, from agent-based modeling to discourse analysis