PENERAPAN ALGORITMA MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION UNTUK PERAMALAN TITIK PANAS DI WILAYAH PROVINSI RIAU

Kebakaran hutan merupakan salah satu masalah lingkungan yang merugikan dari segi ekonomi dan ekologis. Jumlah titik panas kebakaran hutan di Indonesia telah meningkat secara signifikan pada bulan September 2019 dengan 16178 titik panas yang menyebabkan kabut asap berbahaya. Kabut tersebut telah berdampak pada sekitar 1,04 juta jiwa di kota Pekanbaru dan 6,5 juta jiwa di provinsi Riau. Maka, perlu dibangun sistem peringatan dini tentang prediksi kebakaran hutan. Hasil prediksi yang tepat dapat digunakan sebagai pencegahan dan pengendalian kebakaran hutan. Penelitian ini menggunakan data cuaca yang didapatkan dari BMKG Provinsi Riau pada tahun 2015 hingga 2019 untuk meramalkan titik panas pada tahun 2020 di Kabupaten Pelalawan. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Multiple Linear Regression untuk menentukan jumlah titik panas berdasarkan faktor yang mempengaruhi. Berdasarkan hasil eksperimen terdapat tiga faktor yang berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap kemunculan titik panas yaitu kelembapan, curah hujan, dan kecepatan angin. Model Multiple Linear Regression yang dihasilkan pada penelitian ini adalah titik panas = 10.44853 + (0.60849 * suhu) + (-0.29060 * kelembapan) + (-0.08527 * curah hujan) + (0.18707 * kecepatan angin). Berdasarkan eksperimen, diprediksi terdapat 1106 titik panas pada tahun 2020 dengan nilai RMSE sebesar 4,2 hotspot/hari

Fast Polycrystalline-CdTe Detectors for LHC Luminosity Measurements

Beam diagnostics in future high-energy accelerators will require long lived instrumentation in highly hostile radiation environments. A research program aiming at individuating new solutions and testing them under extreme operational conditions has been launched at CERN in the framework of developments for the LHC instrumentation. Its outcome might be used in future accelerator projects, in industry or in physics applications. The detectors which will be adopted for the LHC luminosity monitoring and optimization will be installed close to or inside copper absorbers specifically designed for radiation protection of the accelerator magnetic elements in the interaction regions. These detectors will have to withstand extreme radiation levels and their long-term operation has to be assured without requiring human intervention. Polycrystalline-CdTe detectors have demonstrated their radiation hardness against extreme doses of X-ray exposure in the LEP collider and are considered as good candidates for LHC luminosity monitoring applications. After recalling a series of measurements obtained on CdTe samples exposed to different sources to study their time response and sensitivity we present results on their performance after irradiation at doses of 10^16 neutrons/cm^2. This is a preliminary step in the program intended to test the samples during and after irradiation up to levels of 10^18 neutrons/cm^2 and 10^16 protons/cm^2 comparable to those anticipated at the detector locations over ten years of operation of the accelerator

Local seismic cultures: the use of timber frame structures in the south of Portugal

Given the fact that using timber frame structures has proven to improve the seismic behavior of vernacular architecture, as has been reported in past earthquakes in many countries, its preservation as a traditional earthquake resistant practice is important. This paper firstly intends to evaluate whether the use of timber frames as a traditional seismic resistant technique for vernacular architecture in the South of Portugal, traditionally a seismic region, is still active. Secondly, the city of Vila Real de Santo António was selected as a case study because it also followed a Pombaline development contemporary to the reconstruction of Lisbon. The plan included the provision of timber frame partition walls for some of the buildings and, thus, an overview of the type of constructions originally conceived is provided. Finally, the alterations done in the original constructions and the current state of the city center are described and the effect of these changes on the seismic vulnerability of the city is discussed.The authors wish to express their gratitude to the Portuguese Science and Technology Foundation (FCT) for the scholarship granted in the scope of the research project 'SEISMIC-V-Vernacular Seismic Culture in Portugal' (PTDC/ATP-AQI/3934/2012)

H-alpha Survey of the Local Volume: Isolated Southern Galaxies

We present our H-alpha observations of 11 isolated southern galaxies: SDIG, PGC 51659, E 222-010, E 272-025, E 137-018, IC 4662, Sag DIG, IC 5052, IC 5152, UGCA 438, and E149-003, with distances from 1 to 7 Mpc. We have determined the total H-alpha fluxes from these galaxies. The star formation rates in these galaxies range from 10^{-1} (IC 4662) to 10^{-4}_{\odot}/yr (SDIG) and the gas depletion time at the observed star formation rates lies within the range from 1/6 to 24 Hubble times H_0^{-1} .Comment: 9 pages, 3 figure

Expression of interferon-γ, interferon-α and related genes in individuals with Down syndrome and periodontitis

AbstractBackgroundRecently, attenuation of anti-inflammatory and increase of pro-inflammatory mediators was demonstrated in individuals with Down syndrome (DS) in comparison with euploid patients during periodontal disease (PD), suggesting a shift to a more aggressive inflammation in DS.AimTo determine the influence of DS in the modulation of interferons (IFNs) signaling pathway in PD.Materials and methodsClinical periodontal assessment was performed and gingival tissue samples obtained from a total of 51 subjects, including 19 DS individuals with PD, 20 euploid individuals with PD and 12 euploid individuals without PD. Expression levels of interferon-gamma (IFNG) and interferon-alpha (IFNA), and their receptors IFNGR1, IFNGR2, IFNAR1 and IFNAR2, the signaling intermediates Janus kinase 1 (JAK1), signal transducer and activator of transcription 1 (STAT1) and interferon regulatory factor 1 (IRF1) were determined using real time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR).ResultsClinical signs of periodontal disease were markedly more severe in DS and euploid patients with PD in comparison to euploid and periodontally healthy patients. There was no difference on mRNA levels of IFNA, IFNG, INFGR2, IFNAR1 and IFNAR2 between DS and euploid individuals, even though some of these genes are located on chromosome 21. STAT1 and IRF1 mRNA levels were significantly lower in DS patients in comparison with euploid individuals with PD. In euploid individuals, PD was associated with an increased expression of IFNGR1, IFNGR2, IFNAR1, STAT1 and IRF1.ConclusionsReduced expression of STAT1 and IRF1 genes indicate an impaired activation of IFNs signaling in individuals with DS and PD. Expression of IFNA, IFNG and IFN receptors was not altered in DS patients, indicating that indirect mechanisms are involved in the reduced activation of IFN signaling

Spitzer IRS Spectral Mapping of the Toomre Sequence: Spatial Variations of PAH, Gas, and Dust Properties in Nearby Major Mergers

We have mapped the key mid-IR diagnostics in eight major merger systems of the Toomre Sequence (NGC4676, NGC7592, NGC6621, NGC2623, NGC6240, NGC520, NGC3921, and NGC7252) using the Spitzer Infrared Spectrograph (IRS). With these maps, we explore the variation of the ionized-gas, PAH, and warm-gas (H_2) properties across the sequence and within the galaxies. While the global PAH interband strength and ionized gas flux ratios ([Ne III]/[Ne II]) are similar to those of normal star forming galaxies, the distribution of the spatially resolved PAH and fine structure line flux ratios is significant different from one system to the other. Rather than a constant H_2/PAH flux ratio, we find that the relation between the H_2 and PAH fluxes is characterized by a power law with a roughly constant exponent (0.61+/-0.05) over all merger components and spatial scales. While following the same power law on local scales, three galaxies have a factor of ten larger integrated (i.e. global) H_2/PAH flux ratio than the rest of the sample, even larger than what it is in most nearby AGNs. These findings suggest a common dominant excitation mechanism for H_2 emission over a large range of global H_2/PAH flux ratios in major mergers. Early merger systems show a different distribution between the cold (CO J=1-0) and warm (H_2) molecular gas component, which is likely due to the merger interaction. Strong evidence for buried star formation in the overlap region of the merging galaxies is found in two merger systems (NGC6621 and NGC7592) as seen in the PAH, [Ne II], [Ne III], and warm gas line emission, but with no apparent corresponding CO (J=1-0) emission. Our findings also demonstrate that the variations of the physical conditions within a merger are much larger than any systematic trends along the Toomre Sequence.Comment: 35 pages, accepted for publication in ApJ

Taking tadpole biology into the 21st century: a consensus paper from the First Tadpoles International Workshop

Although tadpoles are common, frequently encountered vertebrates, their natural history is poorly known. Despite the fact that Brazil harbors the highest anuran diversity in the world, with almost a thousand known species (Segalla et  al., 2014), the larvae of many species remain undescribed. The problem is not unique to Brazil. At the turn of the century, approximately ⅔ of almost 3,300 anuran species with a larval stage lacked tadpole descriptions (McDiarmid & Altig, 1999). The proportion of neotropical anurans with free-swimming larvae that are not described is estimated to be around 40% (Provete et al., 2012).Fil: Rossa Feres, Denise de C.. Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho; BrasilFil: Venesky, Matthew. Allegheny College; Estados UnidosFil: Nomura, Fausto. Universidade Federal de Goias; BrasilFil: Eterovick, Paula C.. Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Minas Gerais; BrasilFil: Vera Candioti, María Florencia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Menin, Marcelo. Universidade Federal do Amazonas; BrasilFil: Juncá, Flora A.. Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana; BrasilFil: Schiesari, Luis C.. Universidade de Sao Paulo; BrasilFil: Haddad, Celio F. B.. Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho; BrasilFil: Garey, Michel V.. Universidade Federal da Integração Latino-Americana; BrasilFil: dos Anjos, Luciano A.. Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho; BrasilFil: Wasserug, Richard. Dalhousie University Halifax; Canadá. University Of British Columbia; Canad

Real-time weather forecasting in the Western Mediterranean Basin: An application of the RAMS model

A regional forecasting system based on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is being run at the CEAM Foundation. The model is started twice daily with a forecast range of 72 h. For the period June 2007 to August 2010 the verification of the model has been done using a series of automatic meteorological stations from the CEAM network and located within the Valencia Region (Western Mediterranean Basin). Air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed and direction of the output of the model have been compared with observations. For these variables, an operational verification has been performed by computing different statistical scores for 18 weather stations. This verification process has been carried out for each season of the year separately. As a result, it has been revealed that the model presents significant differences in the forecast of the meteorological variables analysed throughout the year. Moreover, due to the physical complexity of the area of study, the model presents different degree of accuracy between coastal and inland stations. Precipitation has also been verified by means of yes/no contingency tables as well as scatter plots. These tables have been built using 4 specific thresholds that have permitted to compute some categorical statistics. From the results found, it is shown that the precipitation forecast in the area of study is in general over-predicted, but with marked differences between the seasons of the year. Finally, dividing the available data by season of the year, has permitted us to analyze differences in the observed patterns for the magnitudes mentioned above. These results have been used to better understand the behavior of the RAMS model within the Valencia Region