Causal inference concepts applied to three observational studies in the context of vaccine development : from theory to practice

Background Randomized controlled trials are considered the gold standard to evaluate causal associations, whereas assessing causality in observational studies is challenging. Methods We applied Hill's Criteria, counterfactual reasoning, and causal diagrams to evaluate a potentially causal relationship between an exposure and outcome in three published observational studies: a) one burden of disease cohort study to determine the association between type 2 diabetes and herpes zoster, b) one post-authorization safety cohort study to assess the effect of AS04-HPV-16/18 vaccine on the risk of autoimmune diseases, and c) one matched case-control study to evaluate the effectiveness of a rotavirus vaccine in preventing hospitalization for rotavirus gastroenteritis. Results Among the 9 Hill's criteria, 8 (Strength, Consistency, Specificity, Temporality, Plausibility, Coherence, Analogy, Experiment) were considered as met for study c, 3 (Temporality, Plausibility, Coherence) for study a, and 2 (Temporary, Plausibility) for study b. For counterfactual reasoning criteria, exchangeability, the most critical assumption, could not be tested. Using these tools, we concluded that causality was very unlikely in study b, unlikely in study a, and very likely in study c. Directed acyclic graphs provided complementary visual structures that identified confounding bias and helped determine the most accurate design and analysis to assess causality. Conclusions Based on our assessment we found causal Hill's criteria and counterfactual thinking valuable in determining some level of certainty about causality in observational studies. Application of causal inference frameworks should be considered in designing and interpreting observational studies

HPV-type distribution and reproducibility of histological diagnosis in cervical neoplasia in Poland

This study was performed to assess attribution of high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (HG-CIN) and invasive cervical cancer (ICC) to human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes and secondarily to assess reproducibility of HG-CIN/ICC diagnosis obtained in Poland. Formaldehyde fixed, paraffin embedded blocks of HG-CIN/ICC from two distant institutions were sent to a central laboratory together with original histological diagnoses. Central/expert review of histopathological specimens was performed and agreement between local and central/expert diagnoses was calculated. HPV detection and genotyping in the samples was carried out with the use of SPF10-LiPA25 technology. Results were analyzed for 205 HG-CIN and 193 ICC cases with centrally confirmed diagnoses. Kappa coefficients and 95 % confidence intervals for HG-CIN and ICC diagnoses were: 0.13 (0.09;0.17) and 0.19 (0.11;0.26) respectively. Cohen’s kappa coefficients for lesions with representative number of samples ranged from 0.01 for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 to 0.75 for adenocarcinoma. HPV DNA was detected in 96.1 and 91.2 % of the confirmed HG-CIN and ICC specimens respectively. HPV positive HG-CIN was most commonly attributed to HPV types: 16 (62.8), 33 (7.8), 31 (6.6), 52 (3.7), 45 (2.6) and 58 (2.6 %). HPV positive ICC was most commonly attributed to HPV types: 16 (72.1), 18 (10.8), 33 (5.7), 45 (3.4) and 31 (1.7 %). Reproducibility of histological diagnosis of HG-CIN/ICC obtained in Poland generally increases with the severity of lesion and is lowest for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 and highest for adenocarcinoma. Over 80 % of ICC cases are vaccine-preventable in Poland

Risk of spontaneous abortion and other pregnancy outcomes in 15–25 year old women exposed to human papillomavirus-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine in the United Kingdom

AbstractBackgroundWe assessed the risk of spontaneous abortion (SA) after inadvertent exposure to HPV-16/18-vaccine during pregnancy using an observational cohort design.MethodsThe study population included women aged 15–25 years registered with the Clinical Practice Research Datalink General Practice OnLine Database in the United Kingdom (UK), who received at least one HPV-16/18-vaccine dose between 1st September 2008 and 30th June 2011. Exposed women had the first day of gestation between 30 days before and 45 days (90 days for the extended exposure period) after any HPV-16/18-vaccine dose. Non-exposed women had the first day of gestation 120 days–18 months after the last dose. SA defined as foetal loss between weeks 1 and 23 of gestation (UK definition).ResultsThe frequency of SA was 11.6% (among 207 exposed) and 9.0% (632 non-exposed), women: hazard ratio (HR) adjusted for age at first day of gestation 1.30 (95% confidence interval: 0.79–2.12). Sensitivity analysis per number of doses administered (−30 to +45-day risk period) showed a HR for SA of 1.11 (0.64–1.91) for 18/178 women with one dose during the risk period versus 2.55 (1.09–5.93) in 6/29 women with two doses within a 4–5 weeks period. The proportion of pre-term/full-term/postterm deliveries, small/large for gestational age infants, and birth defects was not significantly different between exposed and non-exposed women. Results were consistent using a (United States) SA definition of foetal loss between weeks 1–19 and/or the extended risk period.ConclusionThere was no evidence of an increased risk of SA and other adverse pregnancy outcomes in young women inadvertently HPV-16/18-vaccinated around gestation. Nevertheless, women who are pregnant or trying to become pregnant are advised to postpone vaccination until completion of pregnancy

Natural history of progression of HPV infection to cervical lesion or clearance: analysis of the control arm of the large, randomised PATRICIA study

Background: The control arm of PATRICIA (PApillomaTRIal against Cancer In young Adults, NCT00122681) was used to investigate the risk of progression from cervical HPV infection to cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) or clearance of infection, and associated determinants. Methods and Findings: Women aged 15-25 years were enrolled. A 6-month persistent HPV infection (6MPI) was defined as detection of the same HPV type at two consecutive evaluations over 6 months and clearance as ≥2 type-specific HPV negative samples taken at two consecutive intervals of approximately 6 months following a positive sample. The primary endpoint was CIN grade 2 or greater (CIN2+) associated with the same HPV type as a 6MPI. Secondary endpoints were CIN1+/CIN3+ associated with the same HPV type as a 6MPI; CIN1+/CIN2+/CIN3+ associated with an infection of any duration; and clearance of infection. The analyses included 4825 women with 16,785 infections (3363 womenwith 6902 6MPIs). Risk of developing a CIN1+/CIN2+/CIN3+ associated with same HPV type as a 6MPI varied with HPV type and was significantly higher for oncogenic versus non-oncogenic types. Hazard ratios for development of CIN2+ were 10.44 (95% CI: 6.96-15.65), 9.65 (5.97-15.60), 5.68 (3.50-9.21), 5.38 (2.87-10.06) and 3.87 (2.38-6.30) for HPV-16, HPV-33, HPV-31, HPV-45 and HPV-18, respectively. HPV-16 or HPV-33 6MPIs had ~25-fold higher risk for progression to CIN3+. Previous or concomitant HPV infection or CIN1+ associated with a different HPV type increased risk. Of the different oncogenic HPV types, HPV-16 and HPV-31 infections were least likely to clear. Conclusions: Cervical infections with oncogenic HPV types increased the risk of CIN2+ and CIN3+. Previous or concomitant infection or CIN1+ also increased the risk. HPV-16 and HPV-33 have by far the highest risk of progression to CIN3+, and HPV-16 and HPV-31 have the lowest chance of clearance

Assessing the safety, impact and effectiveness of RTS,S/AS01E malaria vaccine following its introduction in three sub-Saharan African countries: methodological approaches and study set-up

Background Following a 30-year development process, RTS,S/AS01E (GSK, Belgium) is the first malaria vaccine to reach Phase IV assessments. The World Health Organization-commissioned Malaria Vaccine Implementation Programme (MVIP) is coordinating the delivery of RTS,S/AS01E through routine national immunization programmes in areas of 3 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The first doses were given in the participating MVIP areas in Malawi on 23 April, Ghana on 30 April, and Kenya on 13 September 2019. The countries participating in the MVIP have little or no baseline incidence data on rare diseases, some of which may be associated with immunization, a deficit that could compromise the interpretation of possible adverse events reported following the introduction of a new vaccine in the paediatric population. Further, effects of vaccination on malaria transmission, existing malaria control strategies, and possible vaccine-mediated selective pressure on Plasmodium falciparum variants, could also impact long-term malaria control. To address this data gap and as part of its post-approval commitments, GSK has developed a post-approval plan comprising of 4 complementary Phase IV studies that will evaluate safety, effectiveness and impact of RTS,S/AS01E through active participant follow-up in the context of its real-life implementation. Methods EPI-MAL-002 (NCT02374450) is a pre-implementation safety surveillance study that is establishing the background incidence rates of protocol-defined adverse events of special interest. EPI-MAL-003 (NCT03855995) is an identically designed post-implementation safety and vaccine impact study. EPI-MAL-005 (NCT02251704) is a cross-sectional pre- and post-implementation study to measure malaria transmission intensity and monitor the use of other malaria control interventions in the study areas, and EPI-MAL-010 (EUPAS42948) will evaluate the P. falciparum genetic diversity in the periods before and after vaccine implementation. Conclusion GSK’s post-approval plan has been designed to address important knowledge gaps in RTS,S/AS01E vaccine safety, effectiveness and impact. The studies are currently being conducted in the MVIP areas. Their implementation has provided opportunities and posed challenges linked to conducting large studies in regions where healthcare infrastructure is limited. The results from these studies will support ongoing evaluation of RTS,S/AS01E’s benefit-risk and inform decision-making for its potential wider implementation across sub-Saharan Africa

Natural History of Progression of HPV Infection to Cervical Lesion or Clearance: Analysis of the Control Arm of the Large, Randomised PATRICIA Study

Peer reviewe

Risk of newly detected infections and cervical abnormalities in adult women seropositive or seronegative for naturally acquired HPV-16/18 antibodies

Funder: GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals SAPeer reviewedPublisher PD

Risk of first cervical HPV infection and pre-cancerous lesions after onset of sexual activity: analysis of women in the control arm of the randomized, controlled PATRICIA trial

BACKGROUND: More information is needed about time between sexual initiation and human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and development of cervical precancer. METHODS: The objectives were to investigate the time between first sexual activity and detection of first cervical HPV infection or development of first cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), and associated factors in women from the double-blind, multinational, 4-year PATRICIA trial. PATRICIA enroled women aged 15-25 years with no more than 6 lifetime sexual partners. Women were randomized 1:1 to the HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine or to control, but only women from the control arm who began sexual intercourse during the study or within 6 months before enrolment, and had no HPV infection detected before the recorded date of their first sexual intercourse, were included in the present analysis. The time between onset of sexual activity and detection of the first cervical HPV infection or development of the first CIN lesion was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier and univariate and multivariable Cox proportional-hazards models. RESULTS: A total of 9337 women were enroled in the control arm of PATRICIA of whom 982 fulfilled the required inclusion criteria for analysis. A cumulative total of 28%, 44%, and 62% of the subjects had HPV infection within 12, 24, and 48 months, respectively. The overall incidence rate was 27.08 per 100 person-years. The most common oncogenic types associated with 6-month persistent infection were HPV-16 (incidence rate: 2.74 per 100 person-years), HPV-51 (2.70), HPV-52 (1.66), HPV-66 (1.14), and HPV-18 (1.09). Increased infection risk was associated with more lifetime sexual partners, being single, Chlamydia trachomatis history, and duration of hormone use. CIN1+ and CIN2+ lesions were most commonly associated with HPV-16, with an overall incidence rate of 1.87 and 1.07 per 100 person-years, respectively. Previous cervical HPV infection was most strongly associated with CIN development. CONCLUSIONS: More than 25% of women were infected with HPV within 1 year of beginning sexual activity. Without underestimating the value of vaccination at older ages, our findings emphasize its importance before sexual initiation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov: NCT00122681

Risk of first cervical HPV infection and pre-cancerous lesions after onset of sexual activity : analysis of women in the control arm of the randomized, controlled PATRICIA trial

Peer reviewe