Activity time series of old stars from late F to early K VI. Exoplanet mass characterisation and detectability in radial velocity

Stellar variability impacts radial velocities at various timescales and therefore the detectability of exoplanets and the mass determination based on this technique. It is necessary to implement systematic studies, to delineate the current limitations of RV techniques to detect Earth-like planets. This paper aims are to investigate whether the targeted 10% mass uncertainty from RV follow-up of transits detected by PLATO can be reached, and to analyse and quantify Earth-like planet detectability for various spectral types. We implemented blind tests based on a large data set of realistic synthetic time series reproducing different phenomena leading to stellar variability such as complex magnetic activity patterns as well as flows, covering F6-K4 stars and a wide range of activity levels. The 10% mass uncertainty for a 1 MEarth in the habitable zone of a G2 star cannot be reached, even with an improved version of a usual correction of stellar activity and even for long-duration (ten years) well-sampled observations. This level can be reached for masses above 3 MEarth or for K4 stars alone. We quantify the maximum dispersion of the RV residuals needed to reach this 10% level, assuming the correction method and models do not affect the planetary signal. Several other methods were tested and do not allow a significantly improvement of this limited performance. Similarly, such low-mass planets in the habitable zone cannot be detected with a similar correction: blind tests lead to very low detection rates for 1 MEarth and a very high level of false positives. Very significant and new improvements with respect to methods based on activity indicators to correct for stellar activity must be devised at all timescales to reach the objective of 10% uncertainty on the mass or to detect such planets in RV. Methods based on the correlation with activity indicators are unlikely to be sufficient.Comment: Paper accepted in Astronomy and Astrophysic

Curvature-Controlled Defect Localization in Elastic Surface Crystals

We investigate the influence of curvature and topology on crystalline dimpled patterns on the surface of generic elastic bilayers. Our numerical analysis predicts that the total number of defects created by adiabatic compression exhibits universal quadratic scaling for spherical, ellipsoidal, and toroidal surfaces over a wide range of system sizes. However, both the localization of individual defects and the orientation of defect chains depend strongly on the local Gaussian curvature and its gradients across a surface. Our results imply that curvature and topology can be utilized to pattern defects in elastic materials, thus promising improved control over hierarchical bending, buckling, or folding processes. Generally, this study suggests that bilayer systems provide an inexpensive yet valuable experimental test bed for exploring the effects of geometrically induced forces on assemblies of topological charges.MIT Masdar ProgramSwiss National Science Foundation (148743)Solomon Buchsbaum AT&T Research FundAlfred P. Sloan Foundation (Sloan Research Fellowship)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (CAREER CMMI-1351449

Aeroelastic instability of cantilevered flexible plates in uniform flow

We address the flutter instability of a flexible plate immersed in an axial flow. This instability is similar to flag flutter and results from the competition between destabilising pressure forces and stabilising bending stiffness. In previous experimental studies, the plates have always appeared much more stable than the predictions of two-dimensional models. This discrepancy is discussed and clarified in this paper by examining experimentally and theoretically the effect of the plate aspect ratio on the instability threshold. We show that the two-dimensional limit cannot be achieved experimentally because hysteretical behaviour and three-dimensional effects appear for plates of large aspect ratio. The nature of the instability bifurcation (sub- or supercritical) is also discussed in the light of recent numerical results

Dynamique d'un fluide dans un cylindre en précession

Pour des petits nombres de Reynolds l’écoulement d'un fluide dans un cylindre en précession est stable et est une superposition de modes de Kelvin. Pour Re suffisamment grand l’écoulement est instable. Un mécanisme de résonance triadique entre modes de Kelvin permet de déterminer le seuil de stabilité. Une analyse faiblement non-linéaire permet de prédire l’écoulement moyen, même en régime turbulent. Ces prédictions sont en très bon accord avec les expériences

Etude de la stabilité d'un fluide dans un cylindre en précession

Dans ce papier nous présentons une analyse de stabilité linéaire basée sur un mécanisme de résonance triadique pour expliquer l'instabilité d'un fluide dans un cylindre en précession. Nous établissons une expression formelle du taux de croissance dans le cas où un mode de Kelvin forcé par la précession résonne avec deux modes de Kelvin libres. Cette expression est évaluée dans le cas particulier de modes de nombres d'onde azimutaux m=1 et m=2 lorsqu'on considère la première résonance des modes 1 et 3 de l'écoulement de base. Nous montrons alors qu'il existe des modes pour lesquels cette théorie prévoit une interaction constructive

COVID-19 symptoms at hospital admission vary with age and sex: results from the ISARIC prospective multinational observational study

Background: The ISARIC prospective multinational observational study is the largest cohort of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. We present relationships of age, sex, and nationality to presenting symptoms. Methods: International, prospective observational study of 60 109 hospitalized symptomatic patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 recruited from 43 countries between 30 January and 3 August 2020. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate relationships of age and sex to published COVID-19 case definitions and the most commonly reported symptoms. Results: ‘Typical’ symptoms of fever (69%), cough (68%) and shortness of breath (66%) were the most commonly reported. 92% of patients experienced at least one of these. Prevalence of typical symptoms was greatest in 30- to 60-year-olds (respectively 80, 79, 69%; at least one 95%). They were reported less frequently in children (≤ 18 years: 69, 48, 23; 85%), older adults (≥ 70 years: 61, 62, 65; 90%), and women (66, 66, 64; 90%; vs. men 71, 70, 67; 93%, each P < 0.001). The most common atypical presentations under 60 years of age were nausea and vomiting and abdominal pain, and over 60 years was confusion. Regression models showed significant differences in symptoms with sex, age and country. Interpretation: This international collaboration has allowed us to report reliable symptom data from the largest cohort of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Adults over 60 and children admitted to hospital with COVID-19 are less likely to present with typical symptoms. Nausea and vomiting are common atypical presentations under 30 years. Confusion is a frequent atypical presentation of COVID-19 in adults over 60 years. Women are less likely to experience typical symptoms than men