Event-horizon-scale structure in the supermassive black hole candidate at the Galactic Centre

The cores of most galaxies are thought to harbour supermassive black holes, which power galactic nuclei by converting the gravitational energy of accreting matter into radiation (ref 1). Sagittarius A*, the compact source of radio, infrared and X-ray emission at the centre of the Milky Way, is the closest example of this phenomenon, with an estimated black hole mass that is 4 million times that of the Sun (refs. 2,3). A long-standing astronomical goal is to resolve structures in the innermost accretion flow surrounding Sgr A* where strong gravitational fields will distort the appearance of radiation emitted near the black hole. Radio observations at wavelengths of 3.5 mm and 7 mm have detected intrinsic structure in Sgr A*, but the spatial resolution of observations at these wavelengths is limited by interstellar scattering (refs. 4-7). Here we report observations at a wavelength of 1.3 mm that set a size of 37 (+16, -10; 3-sigma) microarcseconds on the intrinsic diameter of Sgr A*. This is less than the expected apparent size of the event horizon of the presumed black hole, suggesting that the bulk of SgrA* emission may not be not centred on the black hole, but arises in the surrounding accretion flow.Comment: 12 pages including 2 figure

Cost-effectiveness of telecare for people with social care needs: the Whole Systems Demonstrator cluster randomised trial

Purpose of the study: to examine the costs and cost-effectiveness of ‘second-generation’ telecare, in addition to standard support and care that could include ‘first-generation’ forms of telecare, compared with standard support and care that could include ‘first-generation’ forms of telecare. Design and methods: a pragmatic cluster-randomised controlled trial with nested economic evaluation. A total of 2,600 people with social care needs participated in a trial of community-based telecare in three English local authority areas. In the Whole Systems Demonstrator Telecare Questionnaire Study, 550 participants were randomised to intervention and 639 to control. Participants who were offered the telecare intervention received a package of equipment and monitoring services for 12 months, additional to their standard health and social care services. The control group received usual health and social care. Primary outcome measure: incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. The analyses took a health and social care perspective. Results: cost per additional QALY was £297,000. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves indicated that the probability of costeffectiveness at a willingness-to-pay of £30,000 per QALY gained was only 16%. Sensitivity analyses combining variations in equipment price and support cost parameters yielded a cost-effectiveness ratio of £161,000 per QALY. Implications: while QALY gain in the intervention group was similar to that for controls, social and health services costs were higher. Second-generation telecare did not appear to be a cost-effective addition to usual care, assuming a commonly accepted willingness to pay for QALYs

3D finite element electrical model of larval zebrafish ECG signals

Assessment of heart function in zebrafish larvae using electrocardiography (ECG) is a potentially useful tool in developing cardiac treatments and the assessment of drug therapies. In order to better understand how a measured ECG waveform is related to the structure of the heart, its position within the larva and the position of the electrodes, a 3D model of a 3 days post fertilisation (dpf) larval zebrafish was developed to simulate cardiac electrical activity and investigate the voltage distribution throughout the body. The geometry consisted of two main components; the zebrafish body was modelled as a homogeneous volume, while the heart was split into five distinct regions (sinoatrial region, atrial wall, atrioventricular band, ventricular wall and heart chambers). Similarly, the electrical model consisted of two parts with the body described by Laplace’s equation and the heart using a bidomain ionic model based upon the Fitzhugh-Nagumo equations. Each region of the heart was differentiated by action potential (AP) parameters and activation wave conduction velocities, which were fitted and scaled based on previously published experimental results. ECG measurements in vivo at different electrode recording positions were then compared to the model results. The model was able to simulate action potentials, wave propagation and all the major features (P wave, R wave, T wave) of the ECG, as well as polarity of the peaks observed at each position. This model was based upon our current understanding of the structure of the normal zebrafish larval heart. Further development would enable us to incorporate features associated with the diseased heart and hence assist in the interpretation of larval zebrafish ECGs in these conditions

Anticitrullinated protein antibody (ACPA) in rheumatoid arthritis: influence of an interaction between HLA-DRB1 shared epitope and a deletion polymorphism in glutathione s-transferase in a cross-sectional study

Abstract Introduction A deletion polymorphism in glutathione S-transferase Mu-1 (GSTM1-null) has previously been implicated to play a role in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) risk and progression, although no prior investigations have examined its associations with anticitrullinated protein antibody (ACPA) positivity. The purpose of this study was to examine the associations of GSTM1-null with ACPA positivity in RA and to assess for evidence of interaction between GSTM1 and HLA-DRB1 shared epitope (SE). Methods Associations of GSTM1-null with ACPA positivity were examined separately in two RA cohorts, the Veterans Affairs Rheumatoid Arthritis (VARA) registry (n = 703) and the Study of New-Onset RA (SONORA; n = 610). Interactions were examined by calculating an attributable proportion (AP) due to interaction. Results A majority of patients in the VARA registry (76%) and SONORA (69%) were positive for ACPA with a similar frequency of GSTM1-null (53% and 52%, respectively) and HLA-DRB1 SE positivity (76% and 71%, respectively). The parameter of patients who had ever smoked was more common in the VARA registry (80%) than in SONORA (65%). GSTM1-null was significantly associated with ACPA positivity in the VARA registry (odds ratio (OR), 1.45; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.02 to 2.05), but not in SONORA (OR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.71 to 1.42). There were significant additive interactions between GSTM1 and HLA-DRB1 SE in the VARA registry (AP, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.21 to 0.77; P < 0.001) in ACPA positivity, an interaction replicated in SONORA (AP, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.00 to 0.76; P = 0.050). Conclusions This study is the first to show that the GSTM1-null genotype, a common genetic variant, exerts significant additive interaction with HLA-DRB1 SE on the risk of ACPA positivity in RA. Since GSTM1 has known antioxidant functions, these data suggest that oxidative stress may be important in the development of RA-specific autoimmunity in genetically susceptible individuals

The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p  90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care

Micromechanical Properties of Injection-Molded Starch–Wood Particle Composites

The micromechanical properties of injection molded starch–wood particle composites were investigated as a function of particle content and humidity conditions. The composite materials were characterized by scanning electron microscopy and X-ray diffraction methods. The microhardness of the composites was shown to increase notably with the concentration of the wood particles. In addition,creep behavior under the indenter and temperature dependence were evaluated in terms of the independent contribution of the starch matrix and the wood microparticles to the hardness value. The influence of drying time on the density and weight uptake of the injection-molded composites was highlighted. The results revealed the role of the mechanism of water evaporation, showing that the dependence of water uptake and temperature was greater for the starch–wood composites than for the pure starch sample. Experiments performed during the drying process at 70°C indicated that the wood in the starch composites did not prevent water loss from the samples.Peer reviewe

Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability