The Impact of the Federal Reserve Bank's Open Market Operations

The Federal Reserve Bank has the ability to change the money supply and to shape the expectations of market participants through their open market operations. These operations may amount to 20% of the day's volume and are concentrated during the half hour known as `Fed Time'. Using previously unavailable data on open market operations, our paper provides the first comprehensive examination of the impact of the Federal Reserve Bank's trading on both fixed income instruments and foreign currencies. Our results detail a dramatic increase in volatility during Fed Time. Surprisingly, the Fed Time volatility is higher on days when open market operations are absent. In addition, little systematic differences in market impact are observed for reserve-draining versus reserve-adding operations. These results suggest that the financial markets correctly anticipate the purpose of open market operations but are unable to forecast the timing of the operations.

Debt and Equity Yields: 1926-80

The study is divided into four broad parts, beginning with an exploratory analysis of the data on expost returns on corporate equities and bonds for the 1926-80 period. In Part 2, we estimate the relationships between one-month expost returns on corporate bonds and equities andvariations in Treasury bill rates, economic activity, and other variables.The major other variable is unanticipated changes in new issue coupon rates on long-term Treasury bonds. Parts 3 and 4 contain econometric investigations of the determinants of one-month Treasury bill rates and unanticipated changes in long-term Treasury coupon rates, respectively. These parts extend the analysis of Part 2 by explaining variables that determine expost corporate bond and equity returns and provide evidence on the determination of new-issue yields on short- and long-term default-free debt. The last three parts ofthe study report econometric results based on data from the 1953-83 period.A number of important issues are addressed in the econometric parts of the paper. These include: the validity of the Modigliani-Cohn valuation-error hypothesis, the measurement of Merton's "excess return on the market", the relationship between real new-issue debt rates and real economic activity, and the usefulness of the Livingston survey data in explaining financial returns.

Constraints on Supersymmetric Dark Matter for Heavy Scalar Superpartners

We study the constraints on neutralino dark matter in minimal low energy supersymmetry models and the case of heavy lepton and quark scalar superpartners. For values of the Higgsino and gaugino mass parameters of the order of the weak scale, direct detection experiments are already putting strong bounds on models in which the dominant interactions between the dark matter candidates and nuclei are governed by Higgs boson exchange processes, particularly for positive values of the Higgsino mass parameter mu. For negative values of mu, there can be destructive interference between the amplitudes associated with the exchange of the standard CP-even Higgs boson and the exchange of the non-standard one. This leads to specific regions of parameter space which are consistent with the current experimental constraints and a thermal origin of the observed relic density. In this article we study the current experimental constraints on these scenarios, as well as the future experimental probes, using a combination of direct and indirect dark matter detection and heavy Higgs and electroweakino searches at hadron colliders.Comment: 32 pages, 13 figure

Male Clients of Male Sex Workers in China: An Ignored High-Risk Population.

BackgroundThere is a high prevalence of HIV/syphilis among male sex workers, but no formal study has ever been conducted focusing on male clients of male sex workers (MCM). A detailed investigation was thus called for, to determine the burden and sociobehavioral determinants of HIV and syphilis among these MCM in China.MethodsAs part of a multicenter cross-sectional study, using respondent-driven and snowball sampling, 2958 consenting adult men who have sex with men (MSM) were recruited, interviewed, and tested for HIV and syphilis between 2008 and 2009. The distributions of sociodemographic characteristics, risk behaviors, and HIV/syphilis prevalence were determined and compared between MCM and other MSM.ResultsAmong recruited MSM, 5.0% (n = 148) were MCM. HIV prevalences for MCM and other MSM were 7.4% and 7.7%, whereas 18.9% and 14.0% were positive for syphilis, respectively. Condomless anal intercourse (CAI) was reported by 59.5% of MCM and 48.2% of MSM. Multiple logistic regression revealed that compared with other MSM, MCM were more likely to have less education [for ≤ elementary level, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 3.13, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.42 to 6.90], higher income (for >500 US Dollars per month, aOR = 2.97, 95% CI: 1.53 to 5.77), more often found partners at parks/restrooms (aOR = 4.01, 95% CI: 2.34 to 6.85), reported CAI (aOR = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.05 to 2.10), reported a larger sexual network (for ≥ 10, aOR = 2.70, 95% CI: 1.44 to 5.07), and higher odds of syphilis (aOR = 1.54, 95% CI: 1.00 to 2.38).ConclusionsThe greater frequency of risk behaviors and high prevalence of HIV and syphilis indicated that HIV/syphilis prevention programs in China need to pay special attention to MCM as a distinct subgroup, which was completely ignored until date

Dense and accurate motion and strain estimation in high resolution speckle images using an image-adaptive approach

Digital image processing methods represent a viable and well acknowledged alternative to strain gauges and interferometric techniques for determining full-field displacements and strains in materials under stress. This paper presents an image adaptive technique for dense motion and strain estimation using high-resolution speckle images that show the analyzed material in its original and deformed states. The algorithm starts by dividing the speckle image showing the original state into irregular cells taking into consideration both spatial and gradient image information present. Subsequently the Newton-Raphson digital image correlation technique is applied to calculate the corresponding motion for each cell. Adaptive spatial regularization in the form of the Geman-McClure robust spatial estimator is employed to increase the spatial consistency of the motion components of a cell with respect to the components of neighbouring cells. To obtain the final strain information, local least-squares fitting using a linear displacement model is performed on the horizontal and vertical displacement fields. To evaluate the presented image partitioning and strain estimation techniques two numerical and two real experiments are employed. The numerical experiments simulate the deformation of a specimen with constant strain across the surface as well as small rigid-body rotations present while real experiments consist specimens that undergo uniaxial stress. The results indicate very good accuracy of the recovered strains as well as better rotation insensitivity compared to classical techniques

Constraints on supersymmetric dark matter for heavy scalar superpartners

We study the constraints on neutralino dark matter in minimal low energy supersymmetry models and the case of heavy lepton and quark scalar superpartners. For values of the Higgsino and gaugino mass parameters of the order of the weak scale, direct detection experiments are already putting strong bounds on models in which the dominant interactions between the dark matter candidates and nuclei are governed by Higgs boson exchange processes, particularly for positive values of the Higgsino mass parameter μ. For negative values of μ, there can be destructive interference between the amplitudes associated with the exchange of the standard CP-even Higgs boson and the exchange of the nonstandard one. This leads to specific regions of parameter space which are consistent with the current experimental constraints and a thermal origin of the observed relic density. In this article, we study the current experimental constraints on these scenarios, as well as the future experimental probes, using a combination of direct and indirect dark matter detection and heavy Higgs and electroweakino searches at hadron colliders

Design, Synthesis, and Biological Activity of 5\u27-Phenyl-1,2,5,6-tetrahydro-3,3\u27-bipyridine Analogues as Potential Antagonists of Nicotinic Acetylcholine Receptors

Starting from a known non-specific agonist (1) of nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChRs), rationally guided structural-based design resulted in the discovery of a small series of 5′-phenyl-1,2,5,6-tetrahydro-3,3′-bipyridines (3a – 3e) incorporating a phenyl ring off the pyridine core of 1. The compounds were synthesized via successive Suzuki couplings on a suitably functionalized pyridine starting monomer 4 to append phenyl and pyridyl substituents off the 3- and 5-positions, respectively, and then make subsequent modifications on the flanking pyridyl ring to provide target compounds. Compound 3a is a novel antagonist which is highly selective for α3β4 nAChR (Ki = 123 nM) over the α4β2, and α7 receptors

A Laboratory Model of a Hydrogen/Oxygen Engine for Combustion and Nozzle Studies

A small laboratory diagnostic thruster was developed to augment present low thrust chemical rocket optical and heat flux diagnostics at the NASA Lewis Research Center. The objective of this work was to evaluate approaches for the use of temperature and pressure sensors for the investigation of low thrust rocket flow fields. The nominal engine thrust was 110 N. Tests were performed at chamber pressures of about 255 kPa, 370 kPa, and 500 kPa with oxidizer to fuel mixture ratios between 4.0 and 8.0. Two gaseous hydrogen/gaseous oxygen injector designs were tested with 60 percent and 75 percent fuel film cooling. The thruster and instrumentation designs were proven to be effective via hot fire testing. The thruster diagnostics provided inner wall temperature and static pressure measurements which were compared to the thruster global performance data. For several operating conditions, the performance data exhibited unexpected trends which were correlated with changes in the axial wall temperature distribution. Azimuthal temperature distributions were found to be a function of operating conditions and hardware configuration. The static pressure profiles showed that no severe pressure gradients were present in the rocket. The results indicated that small differences in injector design can result in dramatically different thruster performance and wall temperature behavior, but that these injector effects may be overshadowed by operating at a high fuel film cooling rate

The Mesozoic along-strike tectono-metamorphic segmentation of Longmen Shan (eastern Tibetan plateau)

The Longmen Shan belt (eastern border of the Tibetan plateau) constitutes a tectonically active region as demonstrated by the occurrence of the unexpected 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan and 2013 Mw 6.6 Lushan earthquakes in the central and southern parts of the belt respectively. These events revealed the necessity of a better understanding of the long‐term geological evolution of the belt and its effect on the present dynamics and crustal structure. New structural and thermobarometric data offer a comprehensive dataset of the paleo‐temperatures across the belt and P‐T estimates for low‐grade metamorphic domains. In the central Longmen Shan, two metamorphic jumps of 150‐200°C, 5‐6 kbar and ~50 °C, 3‐5 kbar acquired during the Early Mesozoic are observed across the Wenchuan and Beichuan faults respectively, attesting to their thrusting movement and unrevealing a major decollement between the allochtonous Songpan‐Garze metasedimentary cover (at T > 500°C) and the autochtonous units and the basement (T < 400°C). In the southern Longmen Shan, the only greenschist‐facies metamorphism is observed both in the basement (360 ± 30°C, 6 ± 2 kbar) and in the metasedimentary cover (350 ± 30°C, 3 ± 1 kbar). Peak conditions were reached at c. 80‐60 Ma in the basement and c. 55‐33 Ma in the cover, c. 50 Ma after the greenschist‐facies metamorphic overprint observed in the central Longmen Shan (c. 150‐120 Ma). This along‐strike metamorphic segmentation coincides well with the present fault segmentation and reveals that the central and southern Longmen Shan experienced different tectono‐metamorphic histories since the Mesozoic

Advancing Drought Understanding, Monitoring and Prediction

Having the capacity to monitor droughts in near-real time and providing accurate drought prediction from weeks to seasons in advance can greatly reduce the severity of social and economic damage caused by drought, a leading natural hazard for North America. The congressional mandate to establish the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS; Public Law 109-430) in 2006 was a major impulse to develop, integrate, and provide drought information to meet the challenges posed by this hazard. Significant progress has been made on many fronts. On the research front, efforts by the broad scientific community have resulted in improved understanding of North American droughts and improved monitoring and forecasting tools. We now have a better understanding of the droughts of the twentieth century including the 1930s "Dust Bowl"; we have developed a broader array of tools and datasets that enhance the official North American Drought Monitor based on different methodologies such as state-of-the-art land surface modeling (e.g., the North American Land Data Assimilation System) and remote sensing (e.g., the evaporative stress index) to better characterize the occurrence and severity of drought in its multiple manifestations. In addition, we have new tools for drought prediction [including the new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2, for operational prediction and an experimental National Multimodel Ensemble] and have explored diverse methodologies including ensemble hydrologic prediction approaches. Broad NIDIS-inspired progress is influencing the development of a Global Drought Information System (GDIS) under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program. Despite these advances, current drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities still fall short of users' needs, especially the need for skillful and reliable drought forecasts at regional and local scales. To tackle this outstanding challenging problem, focused and coordinated research efforts are needed, drawing from excellence across the broad drought research community. To meet this challenge, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Drought Task Force was established in October 2011 with the ambitious goal of achieving significant new advances in the ability to understand, monitor, and predict drought over North America. The Task Force (duration of October 2011-September 2014) is an initiative of NOAA's Climate Program Office Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program in partnership with NIDIS. It brings together over 30 leading MAPP-funded drought scientists from multiple academic and federal institutions [involves scientists from NOAA's research laboratories and centers, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and many universities] in a concerted research effort that builds on individual MAPP research projects. These projects span the wide spectrum of drought research needed to make fundamental advances, from those aimed at the basic understanding of drought mechanisms to those aimed at testing new drought monitoring and prediction tools for operational and service purposes (as part of NCEP's Climate Test Bed). The Drought Task Force provides focus and coordination to MAPP drought research activities and also facilitates synergies with other national and international drought research efforts, including those by the GDIS