Global glacier mass changes and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016

International audienc

Estimating the number needed to treat from continuous outcomes in randomised controlled trials: methodological challenges and worked example using data from the UK Back Pain Exercise and Manipulation (BEAM) trial

Background Reporting numbers needed to treat (NNT) improves interpretability of trial results. It is unusual that continuous outcomes are converted to numbers of individual responders to treatment (i.e., those who reach a particular threshold of change); and deteriorations prevented are only rarely considered. We consider how numbers needed to treat can be derived from continuous outcomes; illustrated with a worked example showing the methods and challenges. Methods We used data from the UK BEAM trial (n = 1, 334) of physical treatments for back pain; originally reported as showing, at best, small to moderate benefits. Participants were randomised to receive 'best care' in general practice, the comparator treatment, or one of three manual and/or exercise treatments: 'best care' plus manipulation, exercise, or manipulation followed by exercise. We used established consensus thresholds for improvement in Roland-Morris disability questionnaire scores at three and twelve months to derive NNTs for improvements and for benefits (improvements gained+deteriorations prevented). Results At three months, NNT estimates ranged from 5.1 (95% CI 3.4 to 10.7) to 9.0 (5.0 to 45.5) for exercise, 5.0 (3.4 to 9.8) to 5.4 (3.8 to 9.9) for manipulation, and 3.3 (2.5 to 4.9) to 4.8 (3.5 to 7.8) for manipulation followed by exercise. Corresponding between-group mean differences in the Roland-Morris disability questionnaire were 1.6 (0.8 to 2.3), 1.4 (0.6 to 2.1), and 1.9 (1.2 to 2.6) points. Conclusion In contrast to small mean differences originally reported, NNTs were small and could be attractive to clinicians, patients, and purchasers. NNTs can aid the interpretation of results of trials using continuous outcomes. Where possible, these should be reported alongside mean differences. Challenges remain in calculating NNTs for some continuous outcomes

The Danish Atrial Fibrillation Registry:A Multidisciplinary National Pragmatic Initiative for Monitoring and Supporting Quality of Care Based on Data Retrieved from Administrative Registries

AIM: The Danish Atrial Fibrillation (AF) Registry monitors and supports improvement of quality of care for all AF patients in Denmark. This report describes the registry's administrative and organizational structure, data sources, data flow, data analyses, annual reporting, and feedback between the registry, clinicians, and the administrative system. We also report the selection process of the quality indicators and the temporal trends in results from 2017-2021.METHODS AND RESULTS: The Danish AF Registry aims for complete registration and monitoring of care for all patients diagnosed with AF in Denmark. Administrative registries provide data on contacts to general practice, contacts to private cardiology practice, hospital contacts, medication prescriptions, updated vital status information, and biochemical test results. The Danish Stroke Registry provides information on stroke events. From 2017 to 2021, the proportion with a reported echocardiography among incident AF patients increased from 39.9% (95% CI: 39.3-40.6) to 82.6% (95% CI: 82.1-83.1). The initiation of oral anticoagulant therapy among patients with incident AF and a CHA2DS2-VASc score of ≥1 in men and ≥2 in women increased from 85.3% (95% CI: 84.6-85.9) to 90.4% (95% CI: 89.9-91.0). The 1-year and 2-year persistence increased from 85.2% (95% CI: 84.5-85.9) to 88.7% (95% CI: 88.0-89.3), and from 85.4% (95% CI: 84.7-86.2) to 88.2% (95% CI: 87.5-88.8), respectively. The 1-year risk of ischemic stroke among prevalent patients with AF decreased from 0.88% (95% CI: 0.83-0.93) to 0.71% (95% CI: 0.66-0.75). Variation in clinical performance between the five administrative Danish regions was reduced.CONCLUSION: Continuous nationwide monitoring of quality indicators for AF originating from administrative registries is feasible and supportive of improvements of quality of care.</p

A multilingual preregistered replication of the semantic mismatch effect on serial recall

Visual-verbal serial recall is disrupted when task-irrelevant background speech has to be ignored. Contrary to previous suggestion, it has recently been shown that the magnitude of disruption may be accentuated by the semantic properties of the irrelevant speech. Sentences ending with unexpected words that did not match the preceding semantic context were more disruptive than sentences ending with expected words. This particular instantiation of a deviation effect has been termed the semantic mismatch effect. To establish a new phenomenon, it is necessary to show that the effect can be independently replicated and does not depend on specific boundary conditions such as the language of the stimulus material. Here we report a preregistered replication of the semantic mismatch effect in which we examined the effect of unexpected words in 4 different languages (English, French, German, and Swedish) across 4 different laboratories. Participants performed a serial recall task while ignoring sentences with expected or unexpected words that were recorded using text-to-speech software. Independent of language, sentences ending with unexpected words were more disruptive than sentences ending with expected words. In line with previous results, there was no evidence of habituation of the semantic mismatch effect in the form of a decrease in disruption with repeated exposure to the occurrence of unexpected words. The successful replication and extension of the effect to different languages indicates the expression of a general and robust mechanism that reacts to violations of expectancies based on the semantic content of the irrelevant speech. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved

Effect of spinal manipulation on sensorimotor functions in back pain patients: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Low back pain (LBP) is a recognized public health problem, impacting up to 80% of US adults at some point in their lives. Patients with LBP are utilizing integrative health care such as spinal manipulation (SM). SM is the therapeutic application of a load to specific body tissues or structures and can be divided into two broad categories: SM with a high-velocity low-amplitude load, or an impulse "thrust", (HVLA-SM) and SM with a low-velocity variable-amplitude load (LVVA-SM). There is evidence that sensorimotor function in people with LBP is altered. This study evaluates the sensorimotor function in the lumbopelvic region, as measured by postural sway, response to sudden load and repositioning accuracy, following SM to the lumbar and pelvic region when compared to a sham treatment.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>A total of 219 participants with acute, subacute or chronic low back pain are being recruited from the Quad Cities area located in Iowa and Illinois. They are allocated through a minimization algorithm in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive either 13 HVLA-SM treatments over 6 weeks, 13 LVVA-SM treatments over 6 weeks or 2 weeks of a sham treatment followed by 4 weeks of full spine "doctor's choice" SM. Sensorimotor function tests are performed before and immediately after treatment at baseline, week 2 and week 6. Self-report outcome assessments are also collected. The primary aims of this study are to 1) determine immediate pre to post changes in sensorimotor function as measured by postural sway following delivery of a single HVLA-SM or LVVA-SM treatment when compared to a sham treatment and 2) to determine changes from baseline to 2 weeks (4 treatments) of HVLA-SM or LVVA-SM compared to a sham treatment. Secondary aims include changes in response to sudden loads and lumbar repositioning accuracy at these endpoints, estimating sensorimotor function in the SM groups after 6 weeks of treatment, and exploring if changes in sensorimotor function are associated with changes in self-report outcome assessments.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This study may provide clues to the sensorimotor mechanisms that explain observed functional deficits associated with LBP, as well as the mechanism of action of SM.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>This trial is registered in ClinicalTrials.gov, with the ID number of <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00830596">NCT00830596</a>, registered on January 27, 2009. The first participant was allocated on 30 January 2009 and the final participant was allocated on 17 March 2011.</p

Multidimensional signals and analytic flexibility: Estimating degrees of freedom in human speech analyses

Recent empirical studies have highlighted the large degree of analytic flexibility in data analysis which can lead to substantially different conclusions based on the same data set. Thus, researchers have expressed their concerns that these researcher degrees of freedom might facilitate bias and can lead to claims that do not stand the test of time. Even greater flexibility is to be expected in fields in which the primary data lend themselves to a variety of possible operationalizations. The multidimensional, temporally extended nature of speech constitutes an ideal testing ground for assessing the variability in analytic approaches, which derives not only from aspects of statistical modeling, but also from decisions regarding the quantification of the measured behavior. In the present study, we gave the same speech production data set to 46 teams of researchers and asked them to answer the same research question, resulting insubstantial variability in reported effect sizes and their interpretation. Using Bayesian meta-analytic tools, we further find little to no evidence that the observed variability can be explained by analysts’ prior beliefs, expertise or the perceived quality of their analyses. In light of this idiosyncratic variability, we recommend that researchers more transparently share details of their analysis, strengthen the link between theoretical construct and quantitative system and calibrate their (un)certainty in their conclusions

The Initiation and Early Stages of Postmolt Mineralization in the Blue Crab, Callinectes sapidus

Crabs are encased in a rigid exoskeleton or cuticle that is hardened by both protein crosslinking and calcification. In order to grow, the exoskeleton must be periodically molted. The two outermost layers of the exoskeleton of crabs are deposited prior to the molt, but remain uncalcified until the animal sheds its old exoskeleton. The inhibition of premolt calcification and initiation of postmolt calcification are effected by biochemical changes in the organic matrix. In the 2 h after the molt, sugar moieties are enzymatically altered on cuticular glycoproteins by an N-acetylhexosaminidase secreted by the underlying epithelium. These alterations appear to unmask nucleation sites that allow calcification to commence. The initial deposition of mineral is in the form of amorphous calcium carbonate (ACC). As postmolt calcification continues and the principal layer (endocuticle) is deposited and mineralized, the ACC is largely converted to or overgrown by calcite. Prior to the onset of ACC deposition, silicon has been detected in those areas of the exoskeleton that are about to undergo mineralization. As calcification proceeds, silicon is no longer detected. It is hypothesized that silicon is involved in the stabilization of ACC by destabilizing the crystal lattice of calcite before it undergoes the transition to or is overgrown by crystalline calcite