Extratropical transition of tropical cyclones in a multiresolution ensemble of atmosphere-only and fully coupled global Climate Models

Tropical cyclones undergo extratropical transition (ET) in every ocean basin. Projected changes in ET frequency under climate change are uncertain and differ between basins, so multimodel studies are required to establish confidence. We used a feature-tracking algorithm to identify tropical cyclones and performed cyclone phase-space analysis to identify ET in an ensemble of atmosphere-only and fully coupled global model simulations, run at various resolutions under historical (1950–2014) and future (2015–50) forcing. Historical simulations were evaluated against five reanalyses for 1979–2018. Considering ET globally, ensemble-mean biases in track and genesis densities are reduced in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific when horizontal resolution is increased from ∼100 to ∼25 km. At high resolution, multi-reanalysis-mean climatological ET frequencies across most ocean basins as well as basins’ seasonal cycles are reproduced better than in low-resolution models. Skill in simulating historical ET interannual variability in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific is ∼0.3, which is lower than for all tropical cyclones. Models project an increase in ET frequency in the North Atlantic and a decrease in the western North Pacific. We explain these opposing responses by secular change in ET seasonality and an increase in lower-tropospheric, pre-ET warm-core strength, both of which are largely unique to the North Atlantic. Multimodel consensus about climate change responses is clearer for frequency metrics than for intensity metrics. These results help clarify the role of model resolution in simulating ET and help quantify uncertainty surrounding ET in a warming climate.All authors received financial support from the PRIMAVERA project (European Commission Horizon2020 Grant Agreement 641727) with data access via JASMIN (https://jasmin.ac.uk) supported by IS-ENES3 (Grant Agreement 824084). AJB also received support from National Environmental Research Council (NERC) national capability grant for the North Atlantic Climate System: Integrated study (ACSIS) program (Grants NE/N018001/1, NE/N018044/1, NE/N018028/1, and NE/N018052/1). KL received funding from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) through JPI Climate/JPI Oceans NextG-Climate Science-ROADMAP (FKZ: 01LP2002A). The authors are grateful to the editor and to three anonymous reviewers, whose recommendations improved this paper. AJB, PLV, RJH, and MJR conceived the study. Simulations were performed by MJR, ET, KL, CDR, and LT. Output data were managed by JS. MJR performed the cyclone tracking. BV computed the Eady growth rate. AJB undertook cyclone phase-space analysis and all other data analyses, figure preparation, and wrote the manuscript. All authors provided input in interpreting results and approved the final manuscript. The authors declare no competing interests.Peer Reviewed"Article signat per 13 autors/es: Alexander J. Baker, Malcolm J. Roberts, Pier Luigi Vidale, Kevin I. Hodges, Jon Seddon, Benoît Vannière, Rein J. Haarsma, Reinhard Schiemann, Dimitris Kapetanakis, Etienne Tourigny, Katja Lohmann, Christopher D. Roberts, and Laurent Terray"Postprint (published version

Age-dependent maintenance of motor control and corticostriatal innervation by death receptor 3

Death receptor 3 is a proinflammatory member of the immunomodulatory tumor necrosis factor receptor superfamily, which has been implicated in several inflammatory diseases such as arthritis and inflammatory bowel disease. Intriguingly however, constitutive DR3 expression has been detected in the brains of mice, rats, and humans, although its neurological function remains unknown. By mapping the normal brain expression pattern of DR3, we found that DR3 is expressed specifically by cells of the neuron lineage in a developmentally regulated and region-specific pattern. Behavioral studies on DR3-deficient (DR3(ko)) mice showed that constitutive neuronal DR3 expression was required for stable motor control function in the aging adult. DR3(ko) mice progressively developed behavioral defects characterized by altered gait, dyskinesia, and hyperactivity, which were associated with elevated dopamine and lower serotonin levels in the striatum. Importantly, retrograde tracing showed that absence of DR3 expression led to the loss of corticostriatal innervation without significant neuronal loss in aged DR3(ko) mice. These studies indicate that DR3 plays a key nonredundant role in the retention of normal motor control function during aging in mice and implicate DR3 in progressive neurological disease

Fat mass and obesity associated (FTO) gene influences skeletal muscle phenotypes in non-resistance trained males and elite rugby playing position

Background FTO gene variants have been associated with obesity phenotypes in sedentary and obese populations, but rarely with skeletal muscle and elite athlete phenotypes. Methods In 1089 participants, comprising 530 elite rugby athletes and 559 non-athletes, DNA was collected and genotyped for the FTO rs9939609 variant using real-time PCR. In a subgroup of non-resistance trained individuals (NT; n = 120), we also assessed structural and functional skeletal muscle phenotypes using dual energy x-ray absorptiometry, ultrasound and isokinetic dynamometry. In a subgroup of rugby athletes (n = 77), we assessed muscle power during a countermovement jump. Results In NT, TT genotype and T allele carriers had greater total body (4.8% and 4.1%) and total appendicular lean mass (LM; 3.0% and 2.1%) compared to AA genotype, with greater arm LM (0.8%) in T allele carriers and leg LM (2.1%) for TT, compared to AA genotype. Furthermore, the T allele was more common (94%) in selected elite rugby union athletes (back three and centre players) who are most reliant on LM rather than total body mass for success, compared to other rugby athletes (82%; P = 0.01, OR = 3.34) and controls (84%; P = 0.03, OR = 2.88). Accordingly, these athletes had greater peak power relative to body mass than other rugby athletes (14%; P = 2 x 10-6). Conclusion Collectively, these results suggest that the T allele is associated with increased LM and elite athletic success. This has implications for athletic populations, as well as conditions characterised by low LM such as sarcopenia and cachexia

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change

Trabajo presentado en: 10th International Worskshop Cyclones Tropicales, celebrado del 5 al 9 de diciembre de 2022 en Bali, Indonesia.A substantial number of studies have been published since the IWTC-9 in 2018, improving our understanding of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) and associated hazards and risks. They reinforced the robustness of increases in TC intensity and associated TC hazards and risks due to anthropogenic climate change. New modeling and observational studies suggested the potential influence of anthropogenic climate forcings, including greenhouse gases and aerosols, on global and regional TC activity at the decadal and century time scale. However, there is still substantial uncertainty owing to model uncertainty in simulating historical TC decadal variability in the Atlantic and owing to limitations of observed TC records. The projected future change in the global number of TCs has become more uncertain since IWTC-9 due to projected increases in TC frequency by a few climate models. A new paradigm, TC seeds, has been proposed, and there is currently a debate on whether seeds can help explain the physical mechanism behind the projected changes in global TC frequency. New studies also highlighted the importance of large-scale environmental fields on TC activity, such as snow cover and air-sea interactions. Future projections on TC translation speed and Medicanes are new additional focus topics in our report. Recommendations and future research are proposed relevant to the remaining scientific questions and assisting policymakers

Implementation of U.K. Earth system models for CMIP6

We describe the scientific and technical implementation of two models for a core set of experiments contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The models used are the physical atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice model HadGEM3-GC3.1 and the Earth system model UKESM1 which adds a carbon-nitrogen cycle and atmospheric chemistry to HadGEM3-GC3.1. The model results are constrained by the external boundary conditions (forcing data) and initial conditions.We outline the scientific rationale and assumptions made in specifying these. Notable details of the implementation include an ozone redistribution scheme for prescribed ozone simulations (HadGEM3-GC3.1) to avoid inconsistencies with the model's thermal tropopause, and land use change in dynamic vegetation simulations (UKESM1) whose influence will be subject to potential biases in the simulation of background natural vegetation.We discuss the implications of these decisions for interpretation of the simulation results. These simulations are expensive in terms of human and CPU resources and will underpin many further experiments; we describe some of the technical steps taken to ensure their scientific robustness and reproducibility

Evidence for a 3.8 MeV state in 9Be

The breakup reaction 9Be(4He,3a)n was measured using an array of four double-sided silicon strip detectors at beam energies of 22 and 26 MeV. Excited states in 9Be up to 8 MeV were populated and reconstructed through measurements of the charged reaction products. Evidence is given for a state in 9Be at 3.82-0.09+0.08 MeV with width=1240-90+270 keV. This is consistent with two recent measurements of a state with similar properties in the mirror nucleus 9B. An analysis of the reduced widths (Beg.s.8 channel) of this state along with the proposed mirror state has led to a firm limit of J<=7/2 and a tentative assignment of J^pi=1/2- or 3/2-

Attitudinal and Demographic Predictors of Measles-Mumps-Rubella Vaccine (MMR) Uptake during the UK Catch-Up Campaign 2008–09: Cross-Sectional Survey

Background and Objective Continued suboptimal measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine uptake has re-established measles epidemic risk, prompting a UK catch-up campaign in 2008–09 for children who missed MMR doses at scheduled age. Predictors of vaccine uptake during catch-ups are poorly understood, however evidence from routine schedule uptake suggests demographics and attitudes may be central. This work explored this hypothesis using a robust evidence-based measure. Design Cross-sectional self-administered questionnaire with objective behavioural outcome. Setting and Participants 365 UK parents, whose children were aged 5–18 years and had received <2 MMR doses before the 2008–09 UK catch-up started. Main Outcome Measures Parents' attitudes and demographics, parent-reported receipt of invitation to receive catch-up MMR dose(s), and catch-up MMR uptake according to child's medical record (receipt of MMR doses during year 1 of the catch-up). Results Perceived social desirability/benefit of MMR uptake (OR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.09–2.87) and younger child age (OR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.68–0.89) were the only independent predictors of catch-up MMR uptake in the sample overall. Uptake predictors differed by whether the child had received 0 MMR doses or 1 MMR dose before the catch-up. Receipt of catch-up invitation predicted uptake only in the 0 dose group (OR = 3.45, 95% CI = 1.18–10.05), whilst perceived social desirability/benefit of MMR uptake predicted uptake only in the 1 dose group (OR = 9.61, 95% CI = 2.57–35.97). Attitudes and demographics explained only 28% of MMR uptake in the 0 dose group compared with 61% in the 1 dose group. Conclusions Catch-up MMR invitations may effectively move children from 0 to 1 MMR doses (unimmunised to partially immunised), whilst attitudinal interventions highlighting social benefits of MMR may effectively move children from 1 to 2 MMR doses (partially to fully immunised). Older children may be best targeted through school-based programmes. A formal evaluation element should be incorporated into future catch-up campaigns to inform their continuing improvement

Utilisation of an operative difficulty grading scale for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background A reliable system for grading operative difficulty of laparoscopic cholecystectomy would standardise description of findings and reporting of outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate a difficulty grading system (Nassar scale), testing its applicability and consistency in two large prospective datasets. Methods Patient and disease-related variables and 30-day outcomes were identified in two prospective cholecystectomy databases: the multi-centre prospective cohort of 8820 patients from the recent CholeS Study and the single-surgeon series containing 4089 patients. Operative data and patient outcomes were correlated with Nassar operative difficultly scale, using Kendall’s tau for dichotomous variables, or Jonckheere–Terpstra tests for continuous variables. A ROC curve analysis was performed, to quantify the predictive accuracy of the scale for each outcome, with continuous outcomes dichotomised, prior to analysis. Results A higher operative difficulty grade was consistently associated with worse outcomes for the patients in both the reference and CholeS cohorts. The median length of stay increased from 0 to 4 days, and the 30-day complication rate from 7.6 to 24.4% as the difficulty grade increased from 1 to 4/5 (both p < 0.001). In the CholeS cohort, a higher difficulty grade was found to be most strongly associated with conversion to open and 30-day mortality (AUROC = 0.903, 0.822, respectively). On multivariable analysis, the Nassar operative difficultly scale was found to be a significant independent predictor of operative duration, conversion to open surgery, 30-day complications and 30-day reintervention (all p < 0.001). Conclusion We have shown that an operative difficulty scale can standardise the description of operative findings by multiple grades of surgeons to facilitate audit, training assessment and research. It provides a tool for reporting operative findings, disease severity and technical difficulty and can be utilised in future research to reliably compare outcomes according to case mix and intra-operative difficulty