Estimating the comparative effectiveness of feeding interventions in the paediatric intensive care unit : a demonstration of longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood estimation

Longitudinal data sources offer new opportunities for the evaluation of sequential interventions. To adjust for time-dependent confounding in these settings, longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood based estimation (TMLE), a doubly robust method that can be coupled with machine learning, has been proposed. This paper provides a tutorial in applying longitudinal TMLE, in contrast to inverse probability of treatment weighting and g-computation based on iterative conditional expectations. We apply these methods to estimate the causal effect of nutritional interventions on clinical outcomes among critically ill children in a United Kingdom study (Control of Hyperglycemia in Paediatric Intensive Care, 2008–2011). We estimate the probability of a child’s being discharged alive from the pediatric intensive care unit by a given day, under a range of static and dynamic feeding regimes. We find that before adjustment, patients who follow the static regime “never feed” are discharged by the end of the fifth day with a probability of 0.88 (95% confidence interval: 0.87, 0.90), while for the patients who follow the regime “feed from day 3,” the probability of discharge is 0.64 (95% confidence interval: 0.62, 0.66). After adjustment for time-dependent confounding, most of this difference disappears, and the statistical methods produce similar results. TMLE offers a flexible estimation approach; hence, we provide practical guidance on implementation to encourage its wider use

The BRACELET Study: surveys of mortality in UK neonatal and paediatric intensive care trials.

BACKGROUND: The subject of death and bereavement in the context of randomised controlled trials in neonatal or paediatric intensive care is under-researched. The objectives of this phase of the Bereavement and RAndomised ControlLEd Trials (BRACELET) Study were to determine trial activity in UK neonatal and paediatric intensive care (2002-06); numbers of deaths before hospital discharge; and variation in mortality across intensive care units and trials and to determine whether bereavement support policies were available within trials. These are essential prerequisites to considering the implications of future policies and practice subsequent to bereavement following a child's enrollment in a trial. METHODS: The units survey involved neonatal units providing level 2 or 3 care, and paediatric units providing level II care or above; the trials survey involved trials where allocation was randomized and interventions were delivered to intensive care patients, or to parents but designed to affect patient outcomes. RESULTS: Information was available from 191/220 (87%) neonatal units (149 level 2 or 3 care); and 28/32 (88%) paediatric units. 90/177 (51%) eligible responding units participated in one or more trial (76 neonatal, 14 paediatric) and 54 neonatal units and 6 paediatric units witnessed at least one death. 50 trials were identified (36 neonatal, 14 paediatric). 3,137 babies were enrolled in neonatal trials, 210 children in paediatric trials. Deaths ranged 0-278 (median [IQR interquartile range] 2 [1, 14.5]) per neonatal trial, 0-4 (median [IQR] 1 [0, 2.5]) per paediatric trial. 534 (16%) participants died post-enrollment: 522 (17%) in neonatal trials, 12 (6%) in paediatric trials. Trial participants ranged 1-236 (median [IQR] 21.5 [8, 39.8]) per neonatal unit, 1-53 (median [IQR] 11.5 [2.3, 33.8]) per paediatric unit. Deaths ranged 0-37 (median [IQR] 3.5 [0.3, 8.8]) per neonatal unit, 0-7 (median [IQR] 0.5 [0, 1.8]) per paediatric unit. Three trials had a formal policy for responding to bereavement. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial number of deaths after trial enrollment were identified, distributed over many trials and units. Few trial teams had responses to bereavement in place. Those with the largest numbers of deaths might be best placed to collaborate in developing and assessing responses to bereavement.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Electrocardiographic variables in children with syndromic craniosynostosis and primary snoring to mild obstructive sleep apnea

Background: In the spectrum of children with symptomatic sleep disordered breathing (SDB), some individuals – such as those with upper airway resistance syndrome (UARS) – do not have abnormalities on polysomnography (PSG). In this study we have assessed whether assessment of respiratory arrhythmia (RA) and heart rate variability (HRV) analysis helps in management of children with syndromic craniosynostosis and none-to-mild obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). Methods: Prospective cohort study in children aged 1–18 years old with syndromic craniosynostosis. Children were selected for HRV analysis from the ECG if their obstructive apnea–hypopnea index (oAHI) was between zero and five per hour (ie, oAHI ≤5/hour). Subjects were divided into groups based on the presence or absence of respiratory arrhythmia (with or without RA respectively) using the electrocardiogram (ECG). The main analysis included studying the relationship between RA and HRV, symptoms, interventions, and sleep architecture. Results: We identified 42 patients with, at worst, mild OSA. We found higher parasympathetic control and higher total power in children with RA during the non-rapid eye movement (non-REM) sleep. Children with RA also have a relatively higher percentage of paradoxical breathing during non-REM sleep (P = 0.042). Intracranial hypertension was distributed equally between groups. Last, RA patients showed increased parasympathetic activity that further increased in non-REM sleep. Conclusion: In syndromic craniosynostosis cases with SDB and PSG showing oAHI ≤5/hour, the presence of RA may indicate subsequent need for treatment interventions, and a trend toward higher occurrence of clinical symptoms. ECG analyses of HRV variables in subjects with RA demonstrate increased parasympathetic activity and total power. Such findings may add to the diagnosis of apparently asymptomatic children

Physical Properties and Galactic Distribution of Molecular Clouds identified in the Galactic Ring Survey

We derive the physical properties of 580 molecular clouds based on their 12CO and 13CO line emission detected in the University of Massachusetts-Stony Brook (UMSB) and Galactic Ring surveys. We provide a range of values of the physical properties of molecular clouds, and find a power-law correlation between their radii and masses, suggesting that the fractal dimension of the ISM is around 2.36. This relation, M = (228 +/- 18) R^{2.36+/-0.04}, allows us to derive masses for an additional 170 GRS molecular clouds not covered by the UMSB survey. We derive the Galactic surface mass density of molecular gas and examine its spatial variations throughout the Galaxy. We find that the azimuthally averaged Galactic surface density of molecular gas peaks between Galactocentric radii of 4 and 5 kpc. Although the Perseus arm is not detected in molecular gas, the Galactic surface density of molecular gas is enhanced along the positions of the Scutum-Crux and Sagittarius arms. This may indicate that molecular clouds form in spiral arms and are disrupted in the inter-arm space. Last, we find that the CO excitation temperature of molecular clouds decreases away from the Galactic center, suggesting a possible decline in the star formation rate with Galactocentric radius. There is a marginally significant enhancement in the CO excitation temperature of molecular clouds at a Galactocentric radius of about 6 kpc, which in the longitude range of the GRS corresponds to the Sagittarius arm. This temperature increase could be associated with massive star formation in the Sagittarius spiral arm

Estimating the Comparative Effectiveness of Feeding Interventions in the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit: A Demonstration of Longitudinal Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation.

Longitudinal data sources offer new opportunities for the evaluation of sequential interventions. To adjust for time-dependent confounding in these settings, longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood based estimation (TMLE), a doubly robust method that can be coupled with machine learning, has been proposed. This paper provides a tutorial in applying longitudinal TMLE, in contrast to inverse probability of treatment weighting and g-computation based on iterative conditional expectations. We apply these methods to estimate the causal effect of nutritional interventions on clinical outcomes among critically ill children in a United Kingdom study (Control of Hyperglycemia in Paediatric Intensive Care, 2008-2011). We estimate the probability of a child's being discharged alive from the pediatric intensive care unit by a given day, under a range of static and dynamic feeding regimes. We find that before adjustment, patients who follow the static regime "never feed" are discharged by the end of the fifth day with a probability of 0.88 (95% confidence interval: 0.87, 0.90), while for the patients who follow the regime "feed from day 3," the probability of discharge is 0.64 (95% confidence interval: 0.62, 0.66). After adjustment for time-dependent confounding, most of this difference disappears, and the statistical methods produce similar results. TMLE offers a flexible estimation approach; hence, we provide practical guidance on implementation to encourage its wider use

Cloud angular momentum and effective viscosity in global SPH simulations with feedback

We examine simulations of isolated galaxies to analyse the effects of localized feedback on the formation and evolution of molecular clouds. Feedback contributes to turbulence and the destruction of clouds, leading to a population of clouds that is younger, less massive, and with more retrograde rotation. We investigate the evolution of clouds as they interact with each other and the diffuse interstellar medium, and determine that the role of cloud interactions differs strongly with the presence of feedback: in models without feedback, scattering events dramatically increase the retrograde fraction, but in models with feedback, mergers between clouds may slightly increase the prograde fraction. We also produce an estimate of the viscous time-scale due to cloud–cloud collisions, which increases with increasing strength of feedback (tν ∼ 20 Gyr versus tν ∼ 10 Gyr), but is still much smaller than previous estimates (tν ∼ 1000 Gyr); although collisions become more frequent with feedback, less energy is lost in each collision than in the models without feedback