36 research outputs found

    Differences between low-end and high-end climate change impacts in Europe across multiple sectors

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    The Paris Agreement established the 1.5 and 2 °C targets based on the recognition “that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change”. We tested this assertion by comparing impacts at the regional scale between low-end ( 4 °C; RCP8.5) climate change scenarios accounting for interactions across six sectors (agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, water, coasts and urban) using an integrated assessment model. Results show that there are only minor differences in most impact indicators for the 2020s time slice, but impacts are considerably greater under high-end than low-end climate change in the 2050s and 2080s. For example, for the 2080s, mitigation consistent with the Paris Agreement would reduce aggregate Europe-wide impacts on the area of intensive agriculture by 21% (on average across climate models), on the area of managed forests by 34%, on water stress by 14%, on people flooded by 10% and on biodiversity vulnerability by 16%. Including socio-economic scenarios (SSPs 1, 3, 4, 5) results in considerably greater variation in the magnitude, range and direction of change of the majority of impact indicators than climate change alone. In particular, socio-economic factors much more strongly drive changes in land use and food production than changes in climate, sometimes overriding the differences due to low-end and high-end climate change. Such impacts pose significant challenges for adaptation and highlight the importance of searching for synergies between adaptation and mitigation and linking them to sustainable development goals

    A restatement of the natural science evidence concerning catchment-based "natural” flood management in the United Kingdom

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    Flooding is a very costly natural hazard in Great Britain and is expected to increase further under future climate change scenarios. Flood defences are commonly deployed to protect communities and property from flooding, but in recent years flood management policy has looked towards solutions that seek to mitigate flood risk at flood-prone sites through targeted interventions throughout the catchment, sometimes using techniques which involve working with natural processes. This paper describes a project to provide a succinct summary of the natural science evidence base concerning the effectiveness of catchment-based “natural” flood management in the United Kingdom. The evidence summary is designed to be read by an informed but not technically-specialist audience. Each evidence statement is placed into one of four categories describing the nature of the underlying information. The evidence summary forms the appendix to this paper and an annotated bibliography is provided in the electronic supplementary material

    Living with myotonic dystrophy; what can be learned from couples? a qualitative study

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    Contains fulltext : 96062.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)BACKGROUND: Myotonic dystrophy type 1 (MD1) is one of the most prevalent neuromuscular diseases, yet very little is known about how MD1 affects the lives of couples and how they themselves manage individually and together. To better match health care to their problems, concerns and needs, it is important to understand their perspective of living with this hereditary, systemic disease. METHODS: A qualitative study was carried out with a purposive sample of five middle-aged couples, including three men and two women with MD1 and their partners. Fifteen in-depth interviews with persons with MD1, with their partners and with both of them as a couple took place in the homes of the couples in two cities and three villages in the Netherlands in 2009. Results : People with MD1 associate this progressive, neuromuscular condition with decreasing abilities, describing physical, cognitive and psychosocial barriers to everyday activities and social participation. Partners highlighted the increasing care giving burden, giving directions and using reminders to compensate for the lack of initiative and avoidant behaviour due to MD1. Couples portrayed the dilemmas and frustrations of renegotiating roles and responsibilities; stressing the importance of achieving a balance between individual and shared activities. All participants experienced a lack of understanding from relatives, friends, and society, including health care, leading to withdrawal and isolation. Health care was perceived as fragmentary, with specialists focusing on specific aspects of the disease rather than seeking to understand the implications of the systemic disorder on daily life. CONCLUSIONS: Learning from these couples has resulted in recommendations that challenge the tendency to treat MD1 as a condition with primarily physical impairments. It is vital to listen to couples, to elicit the impact of MD1, as a multisystem disorder that influences every aspect of their life together. Couple management, supporting the self-management skills of both partners is proposed as a way of reducing the mismatch between health services and health needs

    Albiglutide and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (Harmony Outcomes): a double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial

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    Background: Glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists differ in chemical structure, duration of action, and in their effects on clinical outcomes. The cardiovascular effects of once-weekly albiglutide in type 2 diabetes are unknown. We aimed to determine the safety and efficacy of albiglutide in preventing cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke. Methods: We did a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial in 610 sites across 28 countries. We randomly assigned patients aged 40 years and older with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (at a 1:1 ratio) to groups that either received a subcutaneous injection of albiglutide (30–50 mg, based on glycaemic response and tolerability) or of a matched volume of placebo once a week, in addition to their standard care. Investigators used an interactive voice or web response system to obtain treatment assignment, and patients and all study investigators were masked to their treatment allocation. We hypothesised that albiglutide would be non-inferior to placebo for the primary outcome of the first occurrence of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke, which was assessed in the intention-to-treat population. If non-inferiority was confirmed by an upper limit of the 95% CI for a hazard ratio of less than 1·30, closed testing for superiority was prespecified. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02465515. Findings: Patients were screened between July 1, 2015, and Nov 24, 2016. 10 793 patients were screened and 9463 participants were enrolled and randomly assigned to groups: 4731 patients were assigned to receive albiglutide and 4732 patients to receive placebo. On Nov 8, 2017, it was determined that 611 primary endpoints and a median follow-up of at least 1·5 years had accrued, and participants returned for a final visit and discontinuation from study treatment; the last patient visit was on March 12, 2018. These 9463 patients, the intention-to-treat population, were evaluated for a median duration of 1·6 years and were assessed for the primary outcome. The primary composite outcome occurred in 338 (7%) of 4731 patients at an incidence rate of 4·6 events per 100 person-years in the albiglutide group and in 428 (9%) of 4732 patients at an incidence rate of 5·9 events per 100 person-years in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·78, 95% CI 0·68–0·90), which indicated that albiglutide was superior to placebo (p<0·0001 for non-inferiority; p=0·0006 for superiority). The incidence of acute pancreatitis (ten patients in the albiglutide group and seven patients in the placebo group), pancreatic cancer (six patients in the albiglutide group and five patients in the placebo group), medullary thyroid carcinoma (zero patients in both groups), and other serious adverse events did not differ between the two groups. There were three (<1%) deaths in the placebo group that were assessed by investigators, who were masked to study drug assignment, to be treatment-related and two (<1%) deaths in the albiglutide group. Interpretation: In patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease, albiglutide was superior to placebo with respect to major adverse cardiovascular events. Evidence-based glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists should therefore be considered as part of a comprehensive strategy to reduce the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes. Funding: GlaxoSmithKline

    The Field Research Facility Research Tower

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