Political and institutional factors in regime change in the ERM: An application of duration analysis

This paper analyses the functioning of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). To that end, we apply duration models to estimate an augmented target-zone model, explicitly incorporating political and institutional factors into the explanation of European exchange rate policies. The estimations are based on quarterly data of eight currencies participating in the ERM, covering the complete history of the European Monetary System. Our results suggest that both economic and political factors are important determinants of the ERM currency policies. Concerning economic factors, the money supply, the real exchange rate, the interest in Germany and the central parity deviation would have negatively affected the duration of a given central parity, while credibility and the price level in Germany would have positively influenced such duration. Regarding political variables, elections, central bank independence and left-wing administrations would have increased the probability of maintaining the current regime, while unstable governments would have been associated with more frequent regime changes. Moreover, we show how the political augmented model outperforms, both in terms of explanatory power and goodness of fit, the model which just incorporates pure economic determinants.Duration analysis, political variables, exchange rates, European Monetary System

Efecto del extracto de salix babylonica y enzimas exógenas fibroliticas sobre la respuesta productiva y el estado inmunológico en borregos suffolk

El costo de los insumos usados en la producción pecuaria, los conceptos de limpio, verde y ético y la compleja interacción existente entre la nutrición y la respuesta inmune, ha llevado a investigadores y productores a buscar alternativas alimenticias que les permitan cubrir los requerimientos de la sociedad moderna, sin demeritar la capacidad productiva en sus unidades de producción. Por tal motivo constantemente se están evaluando aditivos alimenticios tales como las enzimas exógenas y los extractos derivados de arbóreas y arbustivas forrajeras motivo de la presente investigación la cual tuvo como objetivo evaluar el efecto de las enzimas exógenas, el extracto de Salix babylonica y su combinación sobre parámetros hematológicos, inmunológicos y productivos. Para dar cumplimiento a este objetivo se realizaron dos experimentos. En el primer experimento se utilizaron 20 borregos Suffolk divididos en cuatro grupos experimentales de acuerdo a los siguientes tratamientos: 1) Control, los animales consumieron solo la dieta basal (DB), 2) EZ, los animales consumieron DB +10g de enzimas exógenas (ZADO®), 3) SB, los animales consumieron DB + 30ml de extracto de Salix babylonica y 4) EZSB, los animales consumieron DB + 10g de enzimas exógenas+30ml de extracto de Salix babylonica. Los tratamientos se ofrecieron del día 1 al día 60 del experimento, por las mañanas antes de proporcionarles el alimento. Las enzimas se mezclaron con 200g de concentrado y se ofrecieron 20 minutos antes de ofrecerles el total de alimento por día, el extracto se proporcionó directo en la boca con una jeringa. Se colectó sangre periférica por vía yugular los días 0, 15, 30, 45 y 60 y con ella se realizaron pruebas bioquímicas, hemogramas y determinación de inmunofenotipaje por citometría de flujo de linfocitos T colaboradores, T citotóxicos, granulocitos y monocitos y se determinaron parámetros productivos como ganancia diaria de peso y consumo voluntario. En el segundo experimento se utilizaron 4 borregos Suffolk y 4 cabras Saanen los cuales fueron asignados de forma aleatoria a uno de los siguientes tratamientos 1) Control, los animales consumieron DB + 30ml de agua destilada, 2) EZ, los animales consumieron DB+ 1μl/g/MS ingerida de de xilanasa (Dyadic International Inc. Jupiter, FL.) diluida en 30ml de agua destilada, 3)SB, los animales consumieron DB+ 30ml de extracto de Salix babylonica, 4)EZSB, los animales consumieron DB+ 1μl/g/MS ingerida de enzimas exógenas diluida en 30ml de agua destilada+ 30ml de extracto de Salix babylonica. El experimento se dividió en cuatro periodos de 15 días y los tratamientos se ofrecieron del día 1 al 15 de cada periodo, por vía oral con una jeringa. Se colectaron muestras de sangre vía yugular los días 15 de cada periodo experimental con las cuales se realizaron pruebas bioquímicas y hemogramas. En ambos experimentos se observó que los tratamientos no produjeron efectos (P>0.05) en los parámetros hematológicos, inmunológicos y productivos (ganancia diaria de peso y consumo voluntario). Se concluyó que el extracto de Salix babylonica, el complejo enzimático ZADO® y la xilanasa utilizados en los presentes experimentos no causan efectos en los parámetros medidos. Las variables hematológicas reportadas en ambos experimentos apoyan el hecho de que no son perjudiciales para la salud animal y pueden ser utilizados con seguridad en condiciones de campo

An empirical examination of exchange-rate credibility determinants in the EMS

This paper provides empirical evidence on the determinants of exchange rate credibility under the European Monetary System (EMS). To that end, we have considered both economic variables and political factors using data of eight currencies participating in the Exchange Rate Mechanism, covering the complete EMS history (1979-1998). Our results suggest that the level of international reserves, the real interest rate and right-wing governments would have positively affected the credibility of a given central parity, while the unemployment rate and the inflation rate would have negative influenced such credibility.Credibility, Political variables, Exchange rates, European Monetary System

Development and validation of a clinical score for prognosis stratification in patients requiring antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: a prospective open cohort study

BACKGROUND: Mortality rates among patients initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa continue high. Also HIV treatment services from the region are affronting the challenges of been attending more patients than never. In this scenario, there are no integrated scoring systems capable of an adequate risk identification/ prognostic stratification among patients requiring ART; in order of optimize actual programmes outcomes. Several independent risk factors at baseline are associated with a poor prognosis after ART initiation. These include: male sex, low body mass index, anemia, low CD4 count and stage-4 WHO disease. The aim of this research was evaluate prospectively a new scoring system composed by these factors

Seeking to enhance the bioenergy of municipal sludge: Effect of alkali pre-treatment and soluble organic matter supplementation

The aim of this research is to enhance the mesophilic anaerobic digestion of municipal sludge from Cadiz-San Fernando (Spain) wastewater treatment plant at 20 days hydraulic retention time (HRT). Two different strategies were tested to improve the process: co-digestion with the addition of soluble organic matter (1% v/v); and alkali sludge pre-treatment (NaOH) prior to co-digestion with glycerine (1% v/v). Methane production (MP) was substantially enhanced (from 0.36 ± 0.09 L CH4 l/d to 0.85 ± 0.16 L CH4 l/d), as was specific methane production (SMP) (from 0.20 ± 0.05 L CH4/g VS to 0.49 ± 0.09 L CH4/g VS) when glycerine was added. The addition of glycerine does not seem to affect sludge stability, the quality of the effluent in terms of pH and organic matter content, i.e. volatile fatty acids (VFA), soluble organic matter and total volatile solid, or process stability (VFA/Alkalinity ratio < 0.4). Alkali pre-treatment prior to co-digestion resulted in a high increase in soluble organic loading rates (more than 20%) and acidification yield (more than 50%). At 20 days HRT, however, it led to overload of the system and total destabilization of the mesophilic anaerobic co-digestion of sewage sludge and glycerine

Mesophilic anaerobic co-digestion of sewage sludge with glycerine: Effect of solids retention time

The main objective of this paper is to examine the effect of the increase in organic loading rates (OLRs), by reducing the solids retention time (SRT) from 20 d to 5 d, in single-phase mesophilic anaerobic co-digestion of sewage sludge with glycerine (1% v/v). It was experimentally confirmed that anaerobic co-digestion of these biowastes under steady-state conditions can achieve an 85 ± 5% reduction in volatile fatty acids (VFA) at SRTs of between 20 and 9 d, with a methane production yield of around 0.8 l CH4/l/d. Decreases in the SRT not only allow the sludge stability and biogas production to be maintained, but also lead to an increase in the waste that could be treated and lower operating costs. Therefore, mesophilic anaerobic co-digestion of sewage sludge and glycerin at a SRT lower than 20 d is possible and preferable due to being more economical and environmentally friendl

On the Credibility of a Target Zone: Evidence from the EMS

We provide some new evidence on the credibility of the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Monetary System. To that end, we use of several credibility indicators, analysing the complete EMS history. We also compare the prediction qualities of the different indicators, and apply them to the experience of the new ERM linking the currencies of non-euro area Member States to the euro.Exchange rates, European Monetary System.

Exchange rate regimens and economic growth in developing countries

En este trabajo se estudia la relación entre el régimen de tipo de cambio y el crecimiento económico a partir de una muestra formada por un panel de 147 países en desarrollo desde 1970 hasta 2007. Para la identificación de los regímenes cambiarios se utilizará una clasificación «inequívoca», obtenida a partir de las 5 clasificaciones más populares de la literatura (FMI, LYS, RR, KS y GGW), en la que se clasificará el régimen cambiario de forma dicotómica entre fijos y no fijos. El método de estimación utilizado es el System-GMM, que se aplica a una ecuación típica de los determinantes del crecimiento. Los resultados sugieren que no hay relación alguna entre los regímenes cambiarios fijos y el crecimiento económico en los países en vías de desarrolloThis paper analyzes the relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth by using a panel data of 147 developing countries over the years from 1970 to 2007. An ‘‘unambiguous’’ classification derived from the most popular exchange rate regime classifications (IMF, LYS, RR, KS and GGW) is used, in which the observations are divided in a dichotomous criterion between pegged and non-pegged. by applying a dynamic system-GMM panel estimation in a growth equation, no statistically significant evidence was found of a relationship between pegged exchange rate regimes and economic growth in developing countrie