WOODLAND POND SALAMANDER ABUNDANCE IN RELATION TO FOREST MANAGEMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN

Woodland ponds are important landscape features that help sustain populations of amphibians that require this aquatic habitat for successful reproduction. Species abundance patterns often reflect site-specific differences in hydrology, physical characteristics, and surrounding vegetation. Large-scale processes such as changing land cover and environmental conditions are other potential drivers influencing amphibian populations in the Upper Midwest, but little information exists on the combined effects of these factors. We used Blue-spotted (Ambystoma laterale Hallowell) and Spotted Salamander (A. maculatum Shaw) monitoring data collected at the same woodland ponds thirteen years apart to determine if changing environmental conditions and vegetation cover in surrounding landscapes influenced salamander movement phenology and abundance. Four woodland ponds in northern Wisconsin were sampled for salamanders in April 1992-1994 and 2005-2007. While Bluespotted Salamanders were more abundant than Spotted Salamanders in all ponds, there was no change in the numbers of either species over the years. However, peak numbers of Blue-spotted Salamanders occurred 11.7 days earlier (range: 9-14 days) in the 2000s compared to the 1990s; Spotted Salamanders occurred 9.5 days earlier (range: 3 - 13 days). Air and water temperatures (April 13- 24) increased, on average, 4.8 oC and 3.7 oC, respectively, between the decades regardless of pond. There were no discernible changes in canopy openness in surrounding forests between decades that would have warmed the water sooner (i.e., more light penetration). Our finding that salamander breeding phenology can vary by roughly 10 days in Wisconsin contributes to growing evidence that amphibian populations have responded to changing climate conditions by shifting life-cycle events. Managers can use this information to adjust monitoring programs and forest management activities in the surrounding landscape to avoid vulnerable amphibian movement periods. Considering direct and indirect stressors such as changing habitat and environmental conditions simultaneously to better understand trends in space and time can help improve monitoring programs for this taxa, which is at major risk of continued declines

Influence of Climate Change and Postdelisting Management on Long‐term Population Viability of the Conservation‐reliant Kirtland\u27s Warbler

Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and in‐ teractions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long‐term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmen‐ tal changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland\u27s Warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to pro‐ jected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering grounds. We devel‐ oped a population‐level simulation model that incorporates the influence of annual environmental conditions on the breeding and wintering grounds, and parameter‐ ized the model using empirical relationships. We simulated independent and addi‐ tive effects of reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity and quality, and wintering grounds habitat quality, on population viability. Our results indicated the Kirtland\u27s Warbler population is stable under current environmental and management condi‐ tions. Reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity resulted in reductions of the stable population size, but did not cause extinction under the scenarios we examined. In contrast, projected large reductions in wintering grounds precipitation caused the population to decline, with risk of extinction magnified when breeding habitat quan‐ tity or quality also decreased. Our study indicates that probability of long‐term per‐ sistence for Kirtland\u27s Warbler will depend on climate change impacts to wintering grounds habitat quality and contributes to the growing literature documenting the importance of considering the full annual cycle for understanding population dynam‐ ics of migratory species

Particle export from the upper ocean over the continental shelf of the west Antarctic Peninsula: A long-term record, 1992–2007

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2008. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 55 (2008): 2118-2131, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2008.04.028.Includes supplemental materialsWe report on results of a long-term (1993-2007) time series sediment trap moored at 170 m to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula in the mid-continental shelf region (350 m depth; 64º30’ S, 66º00’ W). This is a region characterized by late spring-summer diatom blooms, moderately high seasonal primary productivity (50-150 mmol C m-2 d-1 in December-February) and high phytoplankton and krill biomass in the seasonal sea ice zone. The mass flux ranged from near 0 to over 1 g m-2 d-1 and was near 0 to >30% organic carbon (mean 8%). Sedimentation from the upper ocean as estimated by the trap collections at 170 m exhibited strong seasonality with high fluxes (1-10 mmol C m-2 d-1) in November-March following ice retreat and very low fluxes (<0.001 mmol C m-2 d-1) during the Austral winter and under sea ice cover. An average of 85% of the annual export of 212 mmol C m-2 occurred during the seasonal peak flux episodes. Over the trap record, the annual peak flux episode has tended to occur later in the Austral summer, advancing by about 40 days since 1993. The time-integrated sedimentation during the peak flux episode was <1 – 50% of the SeaWiFS-estimated primary production (mean 4%) at the trap site over the period 1998-2006. The elemental composition of material captured in the traps had an average C:N:P of 212:28:1, greater than the canonical Redfield values. High C:P ratios (400- 600) corresponded with the annual flux peak, indicating preferential loss of P from the sinking particles in the summer, ice-free period. The composition of the exported material more closely approximated the Redfield composition during the low-flux, winter period.This research was supported by NSF Grants OPP 9011927, 9632763 and 0217282 for the Palmer Long Term Ecological Research project

Kirtland’s Warbler breeding productivity and habitat use in red pine-dominated habitat in Wisconsin, USA

During the breeding season, Kirtland’s Warblers (Setophaga kirtlandii) are strongly associated with young jack pine (Pinus banksiana) forests in northern Lower Michigan, USA. Since 2007, the species has been breeding in unusual habitat, red pine (Pinus resinosa) dominated plantations, in central Wisconsin, USA. Kirtland’s Warbler productivity and habitat use in red pine is not well understood, and the central Wisconsin population is at a range edge, a situation often associated with lower productivity. To compare range-edge and range-core populations, we estimated reproductive success and characterized habitat use of Kirtland’s Warblers in central Wisconsin red pine-dominated plantations during 2015–2017 using logistic regression models. We also monitored nests and fledgling success, and estimated nest survival using logistic exposure models. Trees were closer together and herbaceous vegetation was taller and denser within territories than at randomly located points outside of territories. Females selected nest sites with deeper dead ground vegetation and live vegetation that was taller and denser than was available at randomly located points within male territories. Nest success was not strongly influenced by within-patch habitat factors. Nest daily survival rate was 0.97 (95% CI = 0.94–0.98). The average number of young fledged per nest was between 2.5 and 2.8. Nest parasitism by Brown-headed Cowbirds (Molothrus ater) was 22.7%. Overall, reproductive success in the peripheral central Wisconsin breeding population of Kirtland’s Warblers that used red pine-dominated plantations was similar to that of Kirtland’s Warblers breeding in typical jack pine habitat in the range core. Young red pine-dominated habitat appears to approximate young jack pine in habitat quality for Kirtland’s Warblers, and this may provide managers some flexibility in habitat maintenance for this conservation-reliant species

Beaver Colony Density Trends on the Chequamegon-Nicolet National Forest, 1987 - 2013.

The North American beaver (Castor canadensis) is a managed species in the United States. In northern Wisconsin, as part of the state-wide beaver management program, the Chequamegon-Nicolet National Forest removes beavers from targeted trout streams on U.S. Forest Service lands. However, the success of this management program has not been evaluated. Targeted removals comprise only 3% of the annual beaver harvest, a level of effort that may not affect the beaver population. We used colony location data along Forest streams from 1987-2013 (Nicolet, northeast Wisconsin) and 1997-2013 (Chequamegon, northwest Wisconsin) to assess trends in beaver colony density on targeted trout streams compared to non-targeted streams. On the Chequamegon, colony density on non-targeted trout and non-trout streams did not change over time, while colony density on targeted trout streams declined and then stabilized. On the Nicolet, beaver colony density decreased on both non-targeted streams and targeted trout streams. However, colony density on targeted trout streams declined faster. The impact of targeted trapping was similar across the two sides of the Forest (60% reduction relative to non-targeted trout streams). Exploratory analyses of weather influences found that very dry conditions and severe winters were associated with transient reductions in beaver colony density on non-targeted streams on both sides of the Forest. Our findings may help land management agencies weigh more finely calibrated beaver control measures against continued large-scale removal programs

FutureProjections

FutureProjections hr2010 is a spatial layer that distinguishes 32 ha cells in Michigan, USA as nonsuitable (0), low suitability (1), moderate suitability (2), and high suitability (3) habitat for Kirtland's warbler in 2010. The layer was derived from hs2010, where 25% of suitable habitat cells were randomly selected and their habitat suitability values were reduced by 1 suitability class. The layer can be used as an input file for the Spatial Data subprogram in program RAMAS GIS. hs2010 is a spatial layer that distinguishes 32 ha cells in Michigan, USA as nonsuitable (0), low suitability (1), moderate suitability (2), and high suitability (3) habitat for Kirtland's warbler in 2010. The layer can be used as an input file for the Spatial Data subprogram in program RAMAS GIS. nc2010 is a spatial layer used to assess the impacts of elimination of the cowbird trapping program on Kirtland's warbler population dynamics, assuming a 57% reduction in productivity. The layer can be used as an input file for the Spatial Data subprogram in program RAMAS GIS. nc2010_41 is a spatial layer used to assess the impacts of elimination of the cowbird trapping program on Kirtland's warbler population dynamics, assuming a 41% reduction in productivity. The layer can be used as an input file for the Spatial Data subprogram in program RAMAS GIS. rc2010 is a spatial layer used to assess the impacts of spatially-restricted cowbird trapping to the core breeding area on Kirtland's warbler population dynamics, assuming a 57% reduction in productivity in satellite breeding patches in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, USA. The layer can be used as an input file for the Spatial Data subprogram in program RAMAS GIS. rc2010_41 is a spatial layer used to assess the impacts of spatially-restricted cowbird trapping to the core breeding area on Kirtland's warbler population dynamics, assuming a 41% reduction in productivity in satellite breeding patches in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, USA. The layer can be used as an input file for the Spatial Data subprogram in program RAMAS GIS. FutureProjections -> RandomizedPrecipitation a1-a50, b1-b50, c1-c50, d1-d50, and e1-e50 are spatial layers that contain randomly generated total March precipitation values in cells that contain suitable habitat for Kirtland's warbler. The values were generated based on the lower 90th percentile of the historical precipitation distribution recorded at the Nassau NOAA station (Bahamas) between 1994 and 2013. The layers can be used as input files for the Spatial Data subprogram in program RAMAS GIS

Data from: Using a full annual cycle model to evaluate long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland’s warbler after successful recovery

Long-term management planning for conservation-reliant migratory songbirds is particularly challenging because habitat quality in different stages and geographic locations of the annual cycle can have direct and carry-over effects that influence the population dynamics. The Neotropical migratory songbird Kirtland's warbler Setophaga kirtlandii (Baird 1852) is listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and Near Threatened under the IUCN Red List. This conservation-reliant species is being considered for U.S. federal delisting because the species has surpassed the designated 1000 breeding pairs recovery threshold since 2001. To help inform the delisting decision and long-term management efforts, we developed a population simulation model for the Kirtland's warbler that incorporated both breeding and wintering grounds habitat dynamics, and projected population viability based on current environmental conditions and potential future management scenarios. Future management scenarios included the continuation of current management conditions, reduced productivity and carrying capacity due to the changes in habitat suitability from the creation of experimental jack pine Pinus banksiana (Lamb.) plantations, and reduced productivity from alteration of the brown-headed cowbird Molothrus ater (Boddaert 1783) removal programme. Linking wintering grounds precipitation to productivity improved the accuracy of the model for replicating past observed population dynamics. Our future simulations indicate that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under two potential future management scenarios: (i) continuation of current management practices and (ii) spatially restricting cowbird removal to the core breeding area, assuming that cowbirds reduce productivity in the remaining patches by ≤41%. The additional future management scenarios we assessed resulted in population declines. Synthesis and applications. Our study indicates that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under current management conditions and that the jack pine plantation and cowbird removal programmes continue to be necessary for the long-term persistence of the species. This study represents one of the first attempts to incorporate full annual cycle dynamics into a population viability analysis for a migratory bird, and our results indicate that incorporating wintering grounds dynamics improved the model performance

Transfusion Management of Incident Dialysis Patients in Canada: A Prospective Observational Study

Background: Several studies have demonstrated harm associated with using erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESA) to achieve higher hemoglobin (Hb) levels. Subsequently, more conservative use of ESAs has changed anemia therapy in patients with chronic renal failure. Objective: The objectives were to identify transfusion rates in hemodialysis (HD) patients during the first year of therapy, to identify factors associated with the probability of transfusion, describe reasons for the transfusions, and identify the Hb values associated with each transfusion. An exploratory objective was to describe the age of red blood cell transfusions. Design: This was a multicenter prospective observational cohort study. Setting: There were 12 study sites in 5 Canadian provinces. The study was performed from 2012 to 2014. Methods: The study patients were adult incident chronic HD patients in these centers. Patients with acute kidney injury, peritoneal dialysis, and planned transfer to satellite units were excluded. Patients had to receive at least 1 month of chronic HD to be eligible. Data for 3 months prior to HD were obtained by retrospective chart review. Prospectively, charts were reviewed monthly for 12 months for data abstraction. Results: There were 314 patients enrolled and 79.9% completed 12 month follow-up. Ninety-four (29.9%) patients received at least 1 unit of blood. During the first 90 days, the transfusion episode rate was 148.4 per 100 patient-years compared with 62.6 per 100 patient-years post 90 days. The most frequent indication was a low Hb value (92%) with gastrointestinal bleeding, surgical blood loss, and fatigue accounting for 9.9%, 8.6%, and 4.5%, respectively. Some patients had >1 indication. The mean Hb values prior to transfusion episodes ranged from 75.3 to 78.6 g/L. Cox regression analysis on time to first transfusion and time to first hospitalization/death both showed an association with inpatient initiation of HD. Some 37.5% initiated HD as an inpatient and differed from those starting as an outpatient. They had less predialysis care and laboratory data suggested more inflammation. The mean and median ages of the blood units transfused were 24.9 (SD = 10.0) and 23 days (interquartile range = 17-33). Conclusions: This work reported the blood transfusion rate in incident HD patients in Canada during a period associated with conservative ESA prescription. The major indication for transfusion was a low Hb rather than clinical symptoms. Initiation of HD as an inpatient was independently associated with the probability of receiving a blood transfusion. These findings require further investigation

Study of Cardiovascular Outcomes in Renal Transplantation: A Prospective, Multicenter Study to Determine the Incidence of Cardiovascular Events in Renal Transplant Recipients in Ontario, Canada

Background: Renal transplant recipients (RTRs) are at significantly higher risk for morbidity and mortality compared with the general population, largely attributed to cardiovascular disease (CVD). Previous estimates of CVD events have come from health care databases and retrospective studies. Objective: The objective of this study was to prospectively determine the prevalence of risk factors and incidence of CVD events in a Canadian cohort of RTRs. Design: Study of Cardiovascular Outcomes in Renal Transplantation (SCORe) was a prospective, longitudinal, multicenter observational study. Setting: Adult RTRs were recruited from 6 participating transplant sites in Ontario, Canada. Patients: Eligible patients were those receiving a living or deceased donor renal transplant. Patients who received simultaneous transplant of any other organ were excluded. Measurements: Primary outcomes included myocardial infarction (MI) defined by American College of Cardiology (ACC-MI) criteria, and major adverse cardiac events (MACE), defined as cardiovascular (CV) death, ACC-MI, coronary revascularization, and nonhemorrhagic stroke. CV events were adjudicated by a single, independent cardiologist. Methods: CV and transplant-specific risk factors that predict MACE and ACC-MI were identified by stepwise regression analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model. Results: A total of 1303 patients enrolled across 6 transplant centers were followed for 4.5 ± 1.6 years (mean ± SD). Incidence of MACE was 7.0%, with significant independent predictors/risk factors including age, diabetes, coronary revascularization, nonhemorrhagic stroke, and renal replacement therapy (RRT). ACC-MI incidence was 4.0%, with significant independent predictors/risk factors including age, coronary revascularization, and duration of RRT in excess of the median value (2.91 years). Limitations: Patients were recruited from a single province, so may not reflect the experience of RTRs in other areas of Canada. Conclusions: Using a prospective design and rigorous methodology, this study found that the incidence of CV events after renal transplantation was elevated relative to the general Canadian population and was comparable with that reported in patient registries, thus helping validate the utility of retrospective analysis in this field. SCORe highlights the importance of monitoring RTRs for traditional cardiac and transplant-specific CV risk factors to help prevent CV morbidity and mortality. Further research is needed to investigate a broader range of potential risk factors and their combined effects on incident CV events