Measuring the evolution of contemporary western popular music

Popular music is a key cultural expression that has captured listeners' attention for ages. Many of the structural regularities underlying musical discourse are yet to be discovered and, accordingly, their historical evolution remains formally unknown. Here we unveil a number of patterns and metrics characterizing the generic usage of primary musical facets such as pitch, timbre, and loudness in contemporary western popular music. Many of these patterns and metrics have been consistently stable for a period of more than fifty years, thus pointing towards a great degree of conventionalism. Nonetheless, we prove important changes or trends related to the restriction of pitch transitions, the homogenization of the timbral palette, and the growing loudness levels. This suggests that our perception of the new would be rooted on these changing characteristics. Hence, an old tune could perfectly sound novel and fashionable, provided that it consisted of common harmonic progressions, changed the instrumentation, and increased the average loudness.Comment: Supplementary materials not included. Please see the journal reference or contact the author

Reconstructing North Atlantic marine climate variability using an absolutely-dated sclerochronological network

This is the final version of the article. Available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.Reconstructing regional to hemispheric-scale climate variability requires the application of spatially representative and climatically sensitive proxy archives. Large spatial networks of dendrochronologies have facilitated the reconstruction of atmospheric variability and inferred variability in the Atlantic Ocean system. However, the marine environment has hitherto lacked the direct application of the spatial network approach because of the small number of individual absolutely-dated marine archives. In this study we present the first analyses of a network of absolutely-dated annually-resolved growth increment width chronologies from the marine bivalves Glycymeris glycymeris and Arctica islandica. The network contains eight chronologies spanning > 500 km along the western British continental shelf from the southern Irish Sea to North West Scotland. Correlation analysis of the individual chronologies and a suite of climate indices, including the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Central England surface air temperature (CET), northeast Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST's) and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO), demonstrates that, despite the large geographical distances been sites and the heterogeneous nature of the marine environment, the increment width variability in these series contains an element of coherence likely driven by a common response to changing environmental forcing. A nested Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to construct five composite series which explain between 31% and 74% of the variance across the individual chronologies. Linear regression analyses indicate that the composite series explain up to 41% of the variance in Northeast Atlantic SSTs over the calibration period (1975–2000). Calibration verification (reduction of error [RE] and coefficient of efficiency [CE]) statistics indicate that the composite series contains significant skill at reconstructing multi-decadal northeast Atlantic SST variability over the past two centuries (1805–2010). These data suggest that composite series derived from sclerochronology networks can facilitate the robust reconstruction of marine climate over past centuries to millennia providing invaluable baseline records of natural oceanographic variability.This work was supported financially by the NERC funded project Climate of the Last Millennium Project (CLAM; project No. NE/N001176/1) and the Marie Curie Frame work Partnership Annually Resolved Archives of Marine Climate Change (ARAMACC; Project No. FP7 604802). The authors would like to thank the three anonymous reviewer‘s for their constructive comments during the peer review process

Isolating and Reconstructing Key Components of North Atlantic Ocean Variability From a Sclerochronological Spatial Network

This is the final version. Available from AGU via the DOI in this record.Our understanding of North Atlantic Ocean variability within the coupled climate system is limited by the brevity of instrumental records and a deficiency of absolutely dated marine proxies. Here we demonstrate that a spatial network of marine stable oxygen isotope series derived from molluscan sclerochronologies (δ18Oshell) can provide skillful annually resolved reconstructions of key components of North Atlantic Ocean variability with absolute dating precision. Analyses of the common δ18Oshell variability, using principal component analysis, highlight strong connections with tropical North Atlantic and subpolar gyre (SPG) sea surface temperatures and sea surface salinity in the North Atlantic Current (NAC) region. These analyses suggest that low-frequency variability is dominated by the tropical Atlantic signal while decadal variability is dominated by variability in the SPG and salinity transport in the NAC. Split calibration and verification statistics indicate that the composite series produced using the principal component analysis can provide skillful quantitative reconstructions of tropical North Atlantic and SPG sea surface temperatures and NAC sea surface salinities over the industrial period (1864–2000). The application of these techniques with extended individual δ18Oshell series provides powerful baseline records of past North Atlantic variability into the unobserved preindustrial period. Such records are essential for developing our understanding of natural climate variability in the North Atlantic Ocean and the role it plays in the wider climate system, especially on multidecadal to centennial time scales, potentially enabling reduction of uncertainties in future climate predictions

X-ray lags in PDS 456 revealed by Suzaku observations

X-ray reverberation lags from the vicinity of supermassive black holes have been detected in almost 30 active galactic nuclei (AGNs). The soft lag, which is the time delay between the hard and soft X-ray light curves, is usually interpreted as the time difference between the direct and reflected emission, but is alternatively suggested to arise from the direct and scattering emission from distant clouds. By analysing the archival Suzaku observations totalling an exposure time of ∼770 ks, we discover a soft lag of 10 ± 3.4 ks at 9.58 × 10−6 Hz in the luminous quasar PDS 456, which is the longest soft lag and lowest Fourier frequency reported to date. In this study, we use the maximum likelihood method to deal with non-continuous nature of the Suzaku light curves. The result follows the mass–scaling relation for soft lags, which further supports that soft lags originate from the innermost areas of AGNs and hence are best interpreted by the reflection scenario. Spectral analysis has been performed in this work and we find no evidence of clumpy partial-covering absorbers. The spectrum can be explained by a self-consistent relativistic reflection model with warm absorbers, and spectral variations over epochs can be accounted for by the change of the continuum, and of column density and ionization states of the warm absorbers.EMC gratefully acknowledges support from the NSF through CAREER award number AST-1351222. CSR thanks NASA for support under grant NNX15AU54G. ACF acknowledges ERC Advanced Grant 340442

A Simple Iterative Model Accurately Captures Complex Trapline Formation by Bumblebees Across Spatial Scales and Flower Arrangements

PMCID: PMC3591286This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Likelihood inference for exponential-trawl processes

Integer-valued trawl processes are a class of serially correlated, stationary and infinitely divisible processes that Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen has been working on in recent years. In this Chapter, we provide the first analysis of likelihood inference for trawl processes by focusing on the so-called exponential-trawl process, which is also a continuous time hidden Markov process with countable state space. The core ideas include prediction decomposition, filtering and smoothing, complete-data analysis and EM algorithm. These can be easily scaled up to adapt to more general trawl processes but with increasing computation efforts.Comment: 29 pages, 6 figures, forthcoming in: "A Fascinating Journey through Probability, Statistics and Applications: In Honour of Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen's 80th Birthday", Springer, New Yor

Hard X-ray lags in active galactic nuclei: Testing the distant reverberation hypothesis with NGC 6814

We present an X-ray spectral and temporal analysis of the variable active galaxy NGC 6814, observed with Suzaku during November 2011. Remarkably, the X-ray spectrum shows no evidence for the soft excess commonly observed amongst other active galaxies, despite its relatively low level of obscuration, and is dominated across the whole Suzaku bandpass by the intrinsic powerlaw-like continuum. Despite this, we clearly detect the presence of a low frequency hard lag of ~1600s between the 0.5-2.0 and 2.0-5.0 keV energy bands at greater than 6-sigma significance, similar to those reported in the literature for a variety of other AGN. At these energies, any additional emission from e.g. a very weak, undetected soft excess, or from distant reflection must contribute less than 3% of the observed countrates (at 90% confidence). Given the lack of any significant continuum emission component other than the powerlaw, we can rule out models that invoke distant reprocessing for the observed lag behavior, which must instead be associated with this continuum emission. These results are fully consistent with a propagating fluctuation origin for the low frequency hard lags, and with the interpretation of the high frequency soft lags - a common feature seen in the highest quality AGN data with strong soft excesses - as reverberation from the inner accretion disk

Annually resolved North Atlantic marine climate over the last millennium

This is the final version of the article. Available from Nature Publishing Group via the DOI in this record.Owing to the lack of absolutely dated oceanographic information before the modern instrumental period, there is currently significant debate as to the role played by North Atlantic Ocean dynamics in previous climate transitions (for example, Medieval Climate Anomaly-Little Ice Age, MCA-LIA). Here we present analyses of a millennial-length, annually resolved and absolutely dated marine δ(18)O archive. We interpret our record of oxygen isotope ratios from the shells of the long-lived marine bivalve Arctica islandica (δ(18)O-shell), from the North Icelandic shelf, in relation to seawater density variability and demonstrate that solar and volcanic forcing coupled with ocean circulation dynamics are key drivers of climate variability over the last millennium. During the pre-industrial period (AD 1000-1800) variability in the sub-polar North Atlantic leads changes in Northern Hemisphere surface air temperatures at multi-decadal timescales, indicating that North Atlantic Ocean dynamics played an active role in modulating the response of the atmosphere to solar and volcanic forcing.We thank the members of the RV Bjarni Sæmundsson (Cruise No. B05-2006). This work was supported by the NERC-funded ULTRA project (Grant Number NE/H023356/1), NERC-funded CLAM project; (Project No. NE/N001176/1) and EU Millennium Project (Project number 017008). This study is a contribution to the Climate Change Consortium for Wales (C3W). We thank Brian Long (Bangor University) and Dr Julia Becker (Cardiff University) for their technical support, and Dr Manfred Mudelsee for his assistance with the trend analysis. We thank Dr Jessica Tierney and an anonymous reviewer for providing the constructive comments in the reviewing process

Purification of immature neuronal cells from neural stem cell progeny

Large-scale proliferation and multi-lineage differentiation capabilities make neural stem cells (NSCs) a promising renewable source of cells for therapeutic applications. However, the practical application for neuronal cell replacement is limited by heterogeneity of NSC progeny, relatively low yield of neurons, predominance of astrocytes, poor survival of donor cells following transplantation and the potential for uncontrolled proliferation of precursor cells. To address these impediments, we have developed a method for the generation of highly enriched immature neurons from murine NSC progeny. Adaptation of the standard differentiation procedure in concert with flow cytometry selection, using scattered light and positive fluorescent light selection based on cell surface antibody binding, provided a near pure (97%) immature neuron population. Using the purified neurons, we screened a panel of growth factors and found that bone morphogenetic protein-4 (BMP-4) demonstrated a strong survival effect on the cells in vitro, and enhanced their functional maturity. This effect was maintained following transplantation into the adult mouse striatum where we observed a 2-fold increase in the survival of the implanted cells and a 3-fold increase in NeuN expression. Additionally, based on the neural-colony forming cell assay (N-CFCA), we noted a 64 fold reduction of the bona fide NSC frequency in neuronal cell population and that implanted donor cells showed no signs of excessive or uncontrolled proliferation. The ability to provide defined neural cell populations from renewable sources such as NSC may find application for cell replacement therapies in the central nervous system