Propensity score analysis with partially observed covariates: How should multiple imputation be used?

Inverse probability of treatment weighting is a popular propensity score-based approach to estimate marginal treatment effects in observational studies at risk of confounding bias. A major issue when estimating the propensity score is the presence of partially observed covariates. Multiple imputation is a natural approach to handle missing data on covariates: covariates are imputed and a propensity score analysis is performed in each imputed dataset to estimate the treatment effect. The treatment effect estimates from each imputed dataset are then combined to obtain an overall estimate. We call this method MIte. However, an alternative approach has been proposed, in which the propensity scores are combined across the imputed datasets (MIps). Therefore, there are remaining uncertainties about how to implement multiple imputation for propensity score analysis: (a) should we apply Rubin's rules to the inverse probability of treatment weighting treatment effect estimates or to the propensity score estimates themselves? (b) does the outcome have to be included in the imputation model? (c) how should we estimate the variance of the inverse probability of treatment weighting estimator after multiple imputation? We studied the consistency and balancing properties of the MIte and MIps estimators and performed a simulation study to empirically assess their performance for the analysis of a binary outcome. We also compared the performance of these methods to complete case analysis and the missingness pattern approach, which uses a different propensity score model for each pattern of missingness, and a third multiple imputation approach in which the propensity score parameters are combined rather than the propensity scores themselves (MIpar). Under a missing at random mechanism, complete case and missingness pattern analyses were biased in most cases for estimating the marginal treatment effect, whereas multiple imputation approaches were approximately unbiased as long as the outcome was included in the imputation model. Only MIte was unbiased in all the studied scenarios and Rubin's rules provided good variance estimates for MIte. The propensity score estimated in the MIte approach showed good balancing properties. In conclusion, when using multiple imputation in the inverse probability of treatment weighting context, MIte with the outcome included in the imputation model is the preferred approach

Predicting microbiologically defined infection in febrile neutropenic episodes in children : global individual participant data multivariable meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Risk-stratified management of fever with neutropenia (FN), allows intensive management of high-risk cases and early discharge of low-risk cases. No single, internationally validated, prediction model of the risk of adverse outcomes exists for children and young people. An individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis was undertaken to devise one. METHODS: The 'Predicting Infectious Complications in Children with Cancer' (PICNICC) collaboration was formed by parent representatives, international clinical and methodological experts. Univariable and multivariable analyses, using random effects logistic regression, were undertaken to derive and internally validate a risk-prediction model for outcomes of episodes of FN based on clinical and laboratory data at presentation. RESULTS: Data came from 22 different study groups from 15 countries, of 5127 episodes of FN in 3504 patients. There were 1070 episodes in 616 patients from seven studies available for multivariable analysis. Univariable analyses showed associations with microbiologically defined infection (MDI) in many items, including higher temperature, lower white cell counts and acute myeloid leukaemia, but not age. Patients with osteosarcoma/Ewings sarcoma and those with more severe mucositis were associated with a decreased risk of MDI. The predictive model included: malignancy type, temperature, clinically 'severely unwell', haemoglobin, white cell count and absolute monocyte count. It showed moderate discrimination (AUROC 0.723, 95% confidence interval 0.711-0.759) and good calibration (calibration slope 0.95). The model was robust to bootstrap and cross-validation sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: This new prediction model for risk of MDI appears accurate. It requires prospective studies assessing implementation to assist clinicians and parents/patients in individualised decision making

External validation, update and development of prediction models for pre-eclampsia using an Individual Participant Data (IPD) meta-analysis: the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complication Network (IPPIC pre-eclampsia) protocol.

Background: Pre-eclampsia, a condition with raised blood pressure and proteinuria is associated with an increased risk of maternal and offspring mortality and morbidity. Early identification of mothers at risk is needed to target management. Methods/design: We aim to systematically review the existing literature to identify prediction models for pre-eclampsia. We have established the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complication Network (IPPIC), made up of 72 researchers from 21 countries who have carried out relevant primary studies or have access to existing registry databases, and collectively possess data from more than two million patients. We will use the individual participant data (IPD) from these studies to externally validate these existing prediction models and summarise model performance across studies using random-effects meta-analysis for any, late (after 34 weeks) and early (before 34 weeks) onset pre-eclampsia. If none of the models perform well, we will recalibrate (update), or develop and validate new prediction models using the IPD. We will assess the differential accuracy of the models in various settings and subgroups according to the risk status. We will also validate or develop prediction models based on clinical characteristics only; clinical and biochemical markers; clinical and ultrasound parameters; and clinical, biochemical and ultrasound tests. Discussion: Numerous systematic reviews with aggregate data meta-analysis have evaluated various risk factors separately or in combination for predicting pre-eclampsia, but these are affected by many limitations. Our large-scale collaborative IPD approach encourages consensus towards well developed, and validated prognostic models, rather than a number of competing non-validated ones. The large sample size from our IPD will also allow development and validation of multivariable prediction model for the relatively rare outcome of early onset pre-eclampsia. Trial registration: The project was registered on Prospero on the 27 November 2015 with ID: CRD42015029349

Erratum to: 36th International Symposium on Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s13054-016-1208-6.]

A922 Sequential measurement of 1 hour creatinine clearance (1-CRCL) in critically ill patients at risk of acute kidney injury (AKI)

Meeting abstrac

Lymphoscintigraphy in the sentinel lymph node technique for breast tumor: value of early and late images for the learning curve1

As the performance of early (H+1 to H+4) and late (D1) lymphoscintigraphic images raises organizational problems in outpatient surgery for breast cancer, only early images are generally obtained. The present study evaluated whether two series of images are better than one and defined the advantages of both methodologies. One hundred and eighteen patients with infiltrating breast carcinoma (T(0), T(1) and T(2)) were included in the study: 87 in group A (early and late images) and 31 in group B (only early images). All patients received two peritumoral injections of (99m)Tc-sulfur colloid, 15-18 MBq (group A) and <15 MBq (group B). During the operation, the patent blue bye technique was associated with radioactivity detection. The two groups were comparable for histological type and tumor size and localization. Successful localization of sentinel nodes on early lymphoscintigraphic images was significantly greater for group B. The identification of a sentinel node focus on early lymphoscintigraphy increased by 10% during the study. Sentinel node detection by the isotopic method alone, or the two methods combined, was comparable for both groups. In radioactivity detection, the count rate for sentinel nodes versus background (contralateral breast) was similar for the two groups. During the learning phase, two series of images gave a definite advantage. Subsequently, lymphoscintigraphy performed at +2 h was sufficient (the results for the two groups became indistinguishable

Learning curve for the detection of axillary sentinel lymph node in breast cancer1

AIM: Sentinel axillary lymph node (SALN) detection is a new technique. Surgeons must progress up a learning curve in order to guarantee quality and safety equivalent to axillary lymphadenectomy. To ensure accurate staging of patients this learning curve must include SALN detection and an axillary lymphadenectomy. The aim of our work was to validate the principles and evaluate the consequences of learning curve for SALN detection from a prospective series of 200 consecutive patients. METHOD: Prospective assessment was made of the detection and false negative rates, post operative morbidity as abcess and seroma, and length of hospital stay. RESULTS: We evaluated the performance from the first to the hundredth case for each surgeon. Detection rate improved to 85% after patient number 10. False negative rate was less than 6%. Post operative axillary morbidity included 11% of seromas and 2% of abcess. Mean hospital stay was 2.8 days. CONCLUSION: Multidisciplinary validation of the learning period contributes to an accurate and safe SAL