Jointly Evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Forecasts of GDP Growth and Inflation

In this paper we jointly evaluate the Federal Reserve staff forecasts of U.S. real output growth and the inflation rate assuming the forecasts are to be used as inputs for the Taylor rule. Our simple methodology generates “policy forecast errors” which have a direct interpretation for the impact of forecast errors on the target interest rate given by the Taylor rule. Without interest rate smoothing, we find that, on average, the Taylor rule target interest rate would have been approximately a full percentage point away from the intended target because of errors in forecasting output growth and inflation. Our results are robust to changes in the forecast horizon and to changes in the weights on the variables in the policy rule.Evaluating Forecasts, Macroeconomic Forecasts, Loss Function,Inflation Forecasting, GDP Growth Forecasting, Monetary Policy

The structure of the accretion disk in NGC 4258 derived from observations of its water vapor masers

A wealth of new information about the structure of the maser disk in NGC 4258 has been obtained from a series of 18 VLBA observations spanning three years, as well as from 32 additional epochs of spectral monitoring data from 1994 to the present, acquired with the VLA, Effelsberg, and GBT. The warp of the disk has been defined precisely. The thickness of the maser disk has been measured to be 12 microarcseconds (FWHM), which is slightly smaller than previously quoted upper limits. Under the assumption that the masers trace the true vertical distribution of material in the disk, from the condition of hydrostatic equilibrium the sound speed is 1.5 km/s, corresponding to a thermal temperature of 600K. The accelerations of the high velocity maser components have been accurately measured for many features on both the blue and red side of the spectrum. The azimuthal offsets of these masers from the midline (the line through the disk in the plane of the sky) and derived projected offsets from the midline based on the warp model correspond well with the measured offsets. This result suggests that the masers are well described as discrete clumps of masing gas, which accurately trace the Keplerian motion of the disk. However, we have continued to search for evidence of apparent motions caused by ``phase effects.'' This work provides the foundation for refining the estimate of the distance to NGC 4258 through measurements of feature acceleration and proper motion. The refined estimate of this distance is expected to be announced in the near future.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, to appear in proceedings of IAU Symposium 242 "Astrophysical Masers and their Environments", held in Alice Springs, March 200

Art, Race, Space

poster abstractArt, Race, Space is a collaborative research project that takes as its starting point E Pluribus Unum, a public art installation proposed for the Indianapolis Culture Trail by renowned artist Fred Wilson that was cancelled in 2011 due to controversy surrounding Wilson’s appropriation of a freed slave figure from the Soldiers and Sailors Monument. Art, Race, Space” goes beyond examining the visual legacies of racial bondage to explore how the public responses to sculptures, memorials, and archaeology reveal our society’s faultlines of race and inequality. Building on the ideas about race, class, visual culture, and democratic debate that emerge from the Indianapolis project, the faculty have designed a multifaceted program to advance scholarship and promote civic dialogue about these significant issues. The faculty members organized an interdisciplinary symposium in January, 2013. Supported by an IAHI grant, the symposium explored the complicated relationships between art, race, and civic space with presentations by Wilson, community representatives who supported and opposed the sculpture, and scholars from a variety of disciplines who examined historical and cultural contexts of the controversy that had revealed Indianapolis’ longstanding racial and class tensions. The dialogue was expanded with the presentation of historical and contemporary examples from other parts of the United States. In order to encourage public dialogue, the symposium provided opportunities for audience members and presenters to engage in conversations, and it deployed social media (Twitter and Facebook) to encourage broader participation. The project's goal is to further scholarship and encourage public conversation on race and materiality. To this end the faculty have created a website, a Facebook page, Twitter account, and are working on an open-access curriculum to support dialogue in schools and informal learning settings about the complex issues of art, race, and representation. The faculty are also collaborating on academic publications, including selected proceedings and an article on the symposium's "hybrid discourse" that combined university and community resources, expertise, and communication practices and brought together diverse voices in constructive conversation about the challenging issues surrounding E Pluribus Unum

Size-resolved aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) properties in the remote marine South China Sea - Part 1: Observations and source classification

Abstract. Ship-based measurements of aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) properties are presented for 2 weeks of observations in remote marine regions of the South China Sea/East Sea during the southwestern monsoon (SWM) season. Smoke from extensive biomass burning throughout the Maritime Continent advected into this region during the SWM, where it was mixed with anthropogenic continental pollution and emissions from heavy shipping activities. Eight aerosol types were identified using a k-means cluster analysis with data from a size-resolved CCN characterization system. Interpretation of the clusters was supplemented by additional onboard aerosol and meteorological measurements, satellite, and model products for the region. A typical bimodal marine boundary layer background aerosol population was identified and observed mixing with accumulation mode aerosol from other sources, primarily smoke from fires in Borneo and Sumatra. Hygroscopicity was assessed using the κ parameter and was found to average 0.40 for samples dominated by aged accumulation mode smoke; 0.65 for accumulation mode marine aerosol; 0.60 in an anthropogenic aerosol plume; and 0.22 during a short period that was characterized by elevated levels of volatile organic compounds not associated with biomass burning impacts. As a special subset of the background marine aerosol, clean air masses substantially scrubbed of particles were observed following heavy precipitation or the passage of squall lines, with changes in observed aerosol properties occurring on the order of minutes. Average CN number concentrations, size distributions, and κ values are reported for each population type, along with CCN number concentrations for particles that activated at supersaturations between 0.14 and 0.85 %

Testing predictions of inclusive fitness theory in inbreeding relatives with biparental care

Data accessibility Data are deposited in Dryad https:doi.org/10.5061/dryad.1zcrdfnf. R code supporting this article has been uploaded as part of the electronic supplementary material. Acknowledgements We thank the Tsawout and Tseycum First Nation bands for allowing access to Mandarte, numerous field assistants, graduate students and postdoctoral fellows who contributed to long-term data collection, and Brad Duthie for insightful discussions regarding underlying concepts. National Sciences and Engineering Research Council (P.A., E.A.G); Izaak Walton Killam Memorial Fund for Advanced Studies (E.A.G, J.M.R.), UK Natural Environment Research Council (R.J.S.) and the European Research Council (J.M.R.) provided funding.Peer reviewedPostprin

B-type natriuretic peptide trumps other prognostic markers in patients assessed for coronary disease

Background: Risk prediction for patients with suspected coronary artery disease is complex due to the common occurrence of prior cardiovascular disease and extensive risk modification in primary care. Numerous markers have the potential to predict prognosis and guide management, but we currently lack robust 'real-world' evidence for their use. Methods: Prospective, multicentre observational study of consecutive patients referred for elective coronary angiography. Clinicians were blinded to all risk assessments, consisting of conventional factors, radial artery pulse wave analysis, 5-minute heart rate variability, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP). Blinded, independent adjudication was performed for all-cause mortality and the composite of death, myocardial infarction or stroke, analysed with Cox proportional hazards regression. Results: Five hundred twenty-two patients were assessed with median age 66 years and 21% prior revascularization. Median baseline left ventricular ejection fraction was 64%, and 62% had ≥ 50% stenosis on angiography. During 5.0 years median follow-up, 30% underwent percutaneous and 16% surgical revascularization. In multivariate analysis, only age and BNP were independently associated with outcomes. The adjusted hazard ratio per log unit increase in BNP was 2.15 for mortality (95% CI 1.45-3.19; p = 0.0001) and 1.27 for composite events (1.04-1.54; p = 0.018). Patients with baseline BNP > 100 pg/mL had substantially higher mortality and composite events (20.9% and 32.2%) than those with BNP ≤ 100 pg/mL (5.6% and 15.5%). BNP improved both classification and discrimination of outcomes (p ≤ 0.003), regardless of left ventricular systolic function. Conversely, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, pulse wave analysis and heart rate variability were unrelated to prognosis at 5 years after risk modification and treatment of coronary disease. Conclusions: Conventional risk factors and other markers of arterial compliance, inflammation and autonomic function have limited value for prediction of outcomes in risk-modified patients assessed for coronary disease. BNP can independently identify patients with subtle impairment of cardiac function that might benefit from more intensive management. Trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT00403351 Registered on 22 November 200

Variation in parent-offspring kinship in socially monogamous systems with extra-pair reproduction and inbreeding

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We thank the Tsawout and Tseycum First Nations bands for allowing access to Mandarte; everyone who contributed to long-term data collection; Lukas Keller and Ryan Germain for helpful discussions; and the European Research Council, UK Royal Society, National Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and Swiss National Science Foundation for their invaluable support. DATA ARCHIVING Data are available from the Dryad Digital Repository: http://dx.doi.org/10.5061/dryad.4r383.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Candida albicans Hypha Formation and Mannan Masking of β-Glucan Inhibit Macrophage Phagosome Maturation

Received 28 August 2014 Accepted 28 October 2014 Published 2 December 2014 This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We thank Janet Willment, Aberdeen Fungal Group, University of Aberdeen, for kindly providing the soluble Dectin-1-Fc reporter. All microscopy was performed with the assistance of the University of Aberdeen Core Microscopy & Histology Facility, and we thank the IFCC for their assistance with flow cytometry. We thank the Wellcome Trust for funding (080088, 086827, 075470, 099215, 097377, and 101873). E.R.B. and A.J.P.B. are funded by the European Research Council (ERC-2009-AdG-249793), and J.L. is funded by a Medical Research Council Clinical Training Fellowship.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Daily PM2.5 concentration estimates by county, ZIP code, and census tract in 11 western states 2008-2018

We created daily concentration estimates for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) at the centroids of each county, ZIP code, and census tract across the western US, from 2008&ndash;2018. These estimates are predictions from ensemble machine learning models trained on 24-hour PM2.5 measurements from monitoring station data across 11 states in the western US. Predictor variables were derived from satellite, land cover, chemical transport model (just for the 2008&ndash;2016 model), and meteorological data. Ten-fold spatial and random CV R2 were 0.66 and 0.73, respectively, for the 2008&ndash;2016 model and 0.58 and 0.72, respectively for the 2008&ndash;2018 model. Comparing areal predictions to nearby monitored observations demonstrated overall R2 of 0.70 for the 2008&ndash;2016 model and 0.58 for the 2008&ndash;2018 model, but we observed higher R2 (&gt;0.80) in many urban areas. These data can be used to understand spatiotemporal patterns of, exposures to, and health impacts of PM2.5 in the western US, where PM2.5 levels have been heavily impacted by wildfire smoke over this time period. &nbsp;</p

Report on Archaeological Investigations Conducted at the St. Mary's Site (18AP45), 107 Duke of Gloucester Street, Annapolis, Maryland, 1987-1990

In celebration of the 250th anniversary of the birth of Charles Carroll of Carrollton, Archaeology in Annapolis was invited to excavate the Carroll House and garden on 107 Duke of Gloucester Street in Annapolis, Maryland. The site, named the St. Mary's Site (18AP45) for the Catholic church on the property, is currently owned by the Redemptorists, a Roman Catholic congregation of priests and brothers who have occupied the site since 1852. Prior to the Redemptorists' tenure, the site was owned by the Carroll family from 1701-1852 and is perhaps best known as the home of Charles Carroll of Carrollton (1737-1832), signer of the Declaration of Independence. Excavations at the site were conducted during four consecutive summer seasons from 1987-1990. The investigation focused on three research questions. The first line of inquiry were questions surrounding the dating, architectural configuration, and artifact deposits of the "frame house," a structure adjoining the west wall of the brick Carroll House via a "passage" and later a three story addition. The frame house was partially demolished in the mid-nineteenth century but the construction was thought to pre-date the brick portion of the house. The second research question was spurred by documentary research which indicated that the property might have been the location of Proctor's Tavern, a late 17th-century tavern which served as the meeting place of the Maryland Provincial Assembly. Archaeological testing hoped to determine its location and, if found, investigate Annapolis' early Euro-American occupation. The third research question focused on the landscape of the site as it was shaped by its occupants over the past three hundred years. The research questions included investigating the stratigraphy, geometry, and architectural and planting features of Charles Carroll of Carrollton's terraced garden built during the 1770s, and investigating the changes to the landscape made by the Redemptorists in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. While no structural evidence associated with Proctor’s Tavern was uncovered during limited excavations along Spa Creek, the historic shore of Spa Creek was identified, buried beneath deep fill deposits laid down during construction of the Carroll Garden. Features and deposits associated with this period likely remain intact in a waterlogged environment along the southeastern sea wall at the St. Mary’s Site. Evidence of extensive earth moving by Carroll is present in the garden and was identified during excavation and coring. This strongly suggests that the garden landscape visible at the St. Mary’s Site is the intact Carroll Garden, which survives beneath contemporary and late nineteenth century strata. The extant surviving garden should be considered highly sensitive to ground-disturbing activities, and is also highly significant considering demonstrable associations with the Carroll family. Other garden-related features were also discovered, including planting holes, and a brick pavilion or parapet located along Spa Creek to the south of the site. The Duke of Gloucester Street wall was shown to be associated with the Carroll occupation of the site. Finally, intensive archaeological research was directed at the vicinity of a frame house constructed and occupied by the Carrolls to the east of the existing brick house, which was replaced by the Redemptorists in the nineteenth century with a greenhouse. These superimposed buildings were documented in detail and remain highly significant features at the St. Mary’s Site