Predictability of soil moisture and river flows over France for the spring season

Sources of spring predictability of the hydrological system over France were studied on a seasonal time scale over the 1960–2005 period. Two random sampling experiments were set up in order to test the relative importance of the land surface initial state and the atmospheric forcing. The experiments were based on the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU hydrometeorological suite which computed soil moisture and river flow forecasts over a 8-km grid and more than 880 river-gauging stations. Results showed that the predictability of hydrological variables primarily depended on the seasonal atmospheric forcing (mostly temperature and total precipitation) over most plains, whereas it mainly depended on snow cover over high mountains. However, the Seine catchment area was an exception as the skill mainly came from the initial state of its large and complex aquifers. Seasonal meteorological hindcasts with the Météo-France ARPEGE climate model were then used to force the ISBA-MODCOU hydrological model and obtain seasonal hydrological forecasts from 1960 to 2005 for the entire March-April-May period. Scores from this seasonal hydrological forecasting suite could thus be compared with the random atmospheric experiment. Soil moisture and river flow skill scores clearly showed the added value in seasonal meteorological forecasts in the north of France, contrary to the Mediterranean area where values worsened

Is there still a need for prophylactic intra-abdominal drainage in elective major gastro-intestinal surgery?

SummaryProphylactic drainage of the abdominal cavity after gastro-intestinal surgery is widely used. The rationale is that intra-abdominal drainage enhances early detection of complications (gastro-intestinal leakage, hemorrhage, bile leak), prevents collection of fluid or pus, reduces morbidity and mortality, and decreases the duration of hospital stay. However, dogmatic attitudes favoring systematic drain placement should be questioned. The aim of this review was to evaluate the evidence supporting systematic use of prophylactic abdominal drainage following gastrectomy, pancreatectomy, liver resection, and rectal resection. Based on this review of the literature: (i) there was no evidence in favor of intra-peritoneal drainage following total or sub-total gastrectomy with respect to morbidity-mortality, nor was it helpful in the diagnosis or management of leakage, however the level of evidence is low, (ii) following pancreatic resection, data are conflicting but, overall, suggest that the absence of drainage is prejudicial, and support the notion that short-term drainage is better than long-term drainage, (iii) after liver resection without hepatico-intestinal anastomosis, high level evidence supports that there is no need for abdominal drainage, and (iv) following rectal resection, data are insufficient to establish recommendations. However, results from the French multicenter randomized controlled trial GRECCAR5 (NCT01269567) should provide new evidence this coming year. Accumulating data support that systematic drainage of the abdominal cavity in digestive surgery is a non-beneficial and obsolete practice, except following pancreatectomy where the consensus appears to indicate the usefulness of short-term drainage. While the level of evidence is high for liver resections, new randomized controlled trials are awaited regarding gastric, pancreatic and rectal surgery

Stapling and Section of the Nasogastric Tube during Sleeve Gastrectomy: How to Prevent and Recover?

Bariatric surgery has become an integral part of morbid obesity treatment with well-defined indications. Some complications, specific or not, due to laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG) procedure have recently been described. We report a rare complication unpublished to date: a nasogastric section during great gastric curve stapling. A 44-year-old woman suffered of severe obesity (BMI 36.6 kg/m2) with failure of medical treatments for years. According to already published technique, a LSG was performed. Six hours postoperatively, a nurse removed the nasogastric tube according to the local protocol and the nasogastric tube was abnormally short, with staples at its extremity. Surgery was performed with peroperative endoscopy. In conclusion, this is the first publication of a nasogastric section during LSG. Therefore we report this case and propose a solution to prevent its occurrence. To avoid this kind of accident, we now systematically insert the nasogastric tube by mouth through a Guedel cannula. Then, to insert the calibrating bougie, we entirely withdraw the nasogastric tube

Liver-First Approach for Synchronous Colorectal Metastases : Analysis of 7360 Patients from the LiverMetSurvey Registry

Background The liver-first approach in patients with synchronous colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) has gained wide consensus but its role is still to be clarified. We aimed to elucidate the outcome of the liver-first approach and to identify patients who benefit at most from this approach. Methods Patients with synchronous CRLM included in the LiverMetSurvey registry between 2000 and 2017 were considered. Three strategies were analyzed, i.e. liver-first approach, colorectal resection followed by liver resection (primary-first), and simultaneous resection, and three groups of patients were analyzed, i.e. solitary metastasis, multiple unilobar CRLM, and multiple bilobar CRLM. In each group, patients from the three strategy groups were matched by propensity score analysis. Results Overall, 7360 patients were analyzed: 4415 primary-first, 552 liver-first, and 2393 simultaneous resections. Compared with the other groups, the liver-first group had more rectal tumors (58.0% vs. 31.2%) and higher hepatic tumor burden (more than three CRLMs: 34.8% vs. 24.0%; size > 50 mm: 35.6% vs. 22.8%; p < 0.001). In patients with solitary and multiple unilobar CRLM, survival was similar regardless of treatment strategy, whereas in patients with multiple bilobar metastases, the liver-first approach was an independent positive prognostic factor, both in unmatched patients (3-year survival 65.9% vs. primary-first 60.4%: hazard ratio [HR] 1.321, p = 0.031; vs. simultaneous resections 54.4%: HR 1.624, p < 0.001) and after propensity score matching (vs. primary-first: HR 1.667, p = 0.017; vs. simultaneous resections: HR 2.278, p = 0.003). Conclusion In patients with synchronous CRLM, the surgical strategy should be decided according to the hepatic tumor burden. In the presence of multiple bilobar CRLM, the liver-first approach is associated with longer survival than the alternative approaches and should be evaluated as standard.Peer reviewe

Update of complications and functional outcome of the ileo-pouch anal anastomosis: overview of evidence and meta-analysis of 96 observational studies

Item does not contain fulltextOBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive update of the outcome of the ileo-pouch anal anastomosis (IPAA). DATA SOURCES: An extensive search in PubMed, EMBASE, and The Cochrane Library was conducted. STUDY SELECTION AND DATA EXTRACTION: All studies published after 2000 reporting on complications or functional outcome after a primary open IPAA procedure for UC or FAP were selected. Study characteristics, functional outcome, and complications were extracted. DATA SYNTHESIS: A review with similar methodology conducted 10 years earlier was used to evaluate developments in outcome over time. Pooled estimates were compared using a random-effects logistic meta-analyzing technique. Analyses focusing on the effect of time of study conductance, centralization, and variation in surgical techniques were performed. RESULTS: Fifty-three studies including 14,966 patients were included. Pooled rates of pouch failure and pelvic sepsis were 4.3% (95% CI, 3.5-6.3) and 7.5% (95% CI 6.1-9.1), respectively. Compared to studies published before 2000, a reduction of 2.5% was observed in the pouch failure rate (p = 0.0038). Analysis on the effect of the time of study conductance confirmed a decline in pouch failure. Functional outcome remained stable over time, with a 24-h defecation frequency of 5.9 (95% CI, 5.0-6.9). Technical surgery aspects did not have an important effect on outcome. CONCLUSION: This review provides up to date outcome estimates of the IPAA procedure that can be useful as reference values for practice and research. It is also shows a reduction in pouch failure over time.1 juli 201

Management of intra-abdominal infections : recommendations by the WSES 2016 consensus conference

This paper reports on the consensus conference on the management of intra-abdominal infections (IAIs) which was held on July 23, 2016, in Dublin, Ireland, as a part of the annual World Society of Emergency Surgery (WSES) meeting. This document covers all aspects of the management of IAIs. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation recommendation is used, and this document represents the executive summary of the consensus conference findings.Peer reviewe

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700