Quantifying the impact of climate change on drought regimes using the Standardised Precipitation Index

The study presents a methodology to characterise short- or long-term drought events, designed to aid understanding of how climate change may affect future risk. An indicator of drought magnitude, combining parameters of duration, spatial extent and intensity, is presented based on the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPI is applied to observed (1955–2003) and projected (2003–2050) precipitation data from the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS). Potential consequences of climate change on drought regimes in Australia, Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Spain, Portugal and the USA are quantified. Uncertainty is assessed by emulating a range of global circulation models to project climate change. Further uncertainty is addressed through the use of a high-emission scenario and a low stabilisation scenario representing a stringent mitigation policy. Climate change was shown to have a larger effect on the duration and magnitude of long-term droughts, and Australia, Brazil, Spain, Portugal and the USA were highlighted as being particularly vulnerable to multi-year drought events, with the potential for drought magnitude to exceed historical experience. The study highlights the characteristics of drought which may be more sensitive under climate change. For example, on average, short-term droughts in the USA do not become more intense but are projected to increase in duration. Importantly, the stringent mitigation scenario had limited effect on drought regimes in the first half of the twenty-first century, showing that adaptation to drought risk will be vital in these regions

Potential process 'hurdles' in the use of macroalgae as feedstock for biofuel production in the British Isles

This review examines the potential technical and energy balance hurdles in the production of seaweed biofuel, and particular for the MacroBioCrude processing pipeline for the sustainable manufacture of liquid hydrocarbon fuels from seaweed in the UK. The production of biofuel from seaweed is economically, energetically and technically challenging at scale. Any successful process appears to require both a method of preserving the seaweed for continuous feedstock availability and a method exploiting the entire biomass. Ensiling and gasification offer a potential solution to these two requirements. However there is need for more data particularly at a commercial scal

Comparison of Whole Blood and Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cell Gene Expression for Evaluation of the Perioperative Inflammatory Response in Patients with Advanced Heart Failure

Background: Heart failure (HF) prevalence is increasing in the United States. Mechanical Circulatory Support (MCS) therapy is an option for Advanced HF (AdHF) patients. Perioperatively, multiorgan dysfunction (MOD) is linked to the effects of device implantation, augmented by preexisting HF. Early recognition of MOD allows for better diagnosis, treatment, and risk prediction. Gene expression profiling (GEP) was used to evaluate clinical phenotypes of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) transcriptomes obtained from patients’ blood samples. Whole blood (WB) samples are clinically more feasible, but their performance in comparison to PBMC samples has not been determined. Methods: We collected blood samples from 31 HF patients (57¡15 years old) undergoing cardiothoracic surgery and 7 healthy age-matched controls, between 2010 and 2011, at a single institution. WB and PBMC samples were collected at a single timepoint postoperatively (median day 8 postoperatively) (25–75% IQR 7–14 days) and subjected to Illumina single color Human BeadChip HT12 v4 whole genome expression array analysis. The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score was used to characterize the severity of MOD into low (# 4 points), intermediate (5–11), and high ($ 12) risk categories correlating with GEP. Results: Results indicate that the direction of change in GEP of individuals with MOD as compared to controls is similar when determined from PBMC versus WB. The main enriched terms by Gene Ontology (GO) analysis included those involved in the inflammatory response, apoptosis, and other stress response related pathways. The data revealed 35 significant GO categories and 26 pathways overlapping between PBMC and WB. Additionally, class prediction using machine learning tools demonstrated that the subset of significant genes shared by PBMC and WB are sufficient to train as a predictor separating the SOFA groups. Conclusion: GEP analysis of WB has the potential to become a clinical tool for immune-monitoring in patients with MO

The Frequency of Malaria Is Similar among Women Receiving either Lopinavir/Ritonavir or Nevirapine-based Antiretroviral Treatment

HIV protease inhibitors (PIs) show antimalarial activity in vitro and in animals. Whether this translates into a clinical benefit in HIV-infected patients residing in malaria-endemic regions is unknown. We studied the incidence of malaria, as defined by blood smear positivity or a positive Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 antigen test, among 444 HIV-infected women initiating antiretroviral treatment (ART) in the OCTANE trial (A5208; ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00089505). Participants were randomized to treatment with PI-containing vs. PI-sparing ART, and were followed prospectively for ≥48 weeks; 73% also received cotrimoxazole prophylaxis. PI-containing treatment was not associated with protection against malaria in this study population

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified