Climate-informed stochastic hydrological modeling: Incorporating decadal-scale variability using paleo data

A hierarchical framework for incorporating modes of climate variability into stochastic simulations of hydrological data is developed, termed the climate-informed multi-time scale stochastic (CIMSS) framework. A case study on two catchments in eastern Australia illustrates this framework. To develop an identifiable model characterizing long-term variability for the first level of the hierarchy, paleoclimate proxies, and instrumental indices describing the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are analyzed. A new paleo IPO-PDO time series dating back 440 yr is produced, combining seven IPO-PDO paleo sources using an objective smoothing procedure to fit low-pass filters to individual records. The paleo data analysis indicates that wet/dry IPO-PDO states have a broad range of run lengths, with 90% between 3 and 33 yr and a mean of 15 yr. The Markov chain model, previously used to simulate oscillating wet/dry climate states, is found to underestimate the probability of wet/dry periods >5 yr, and is rejected in favor of a gamma distribution for simulating the run lengths of the wet/dry IPO-PDO states. For the second level of the hierarchy, a seasonal rainfall model is conditioned on the simulated IPO-PDO state. The model is able to replicate observed statistics such as seasonal and multiyear accumulated rainfall distributions and interannual autocorrelations. Mean seasonal rainfall in the IPO-PDO dry states is found to be 15%-28% lower than the wet state at the case study sites. In comparison, an annual lag-one autoregressive model is unable to adequately capture the observed rainfall distribution within separate IPO-PDO states. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.Benjamin J. Henley, Mark A. Thyer, George Kuczera and Stewart W. Frank

Climate-informed stochastic hydrological modeling: Incorporating decadal-scale variability using paleo data

A hierarchical framework for incorporating modes of climate variability into stochastic simulations of hydrological data is developed, termed the climate-informed multi-time scale stochastic (CIMSS) framework. A case study on two catchments in eastern Australia illustrates this framework. To develop an identifiable model characterizing long-term variability for the first level of the hierarchy, paleoclimate proxies, and instrumental indices describing the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are analyzed. A new paleo IPO-PDO time series dating back 440 yr is produced, combining seven IPO-PDO paleo sources using an objective smoothing procedure to fit low-pass filters to individual records. The paleo data analysis indicates that wet/dry IPO-PDO states have a broad range of run lengths, with 90% between 3 and 33 yr and a mean of 15 yr. The Markov chain model, previously used to simulate oscillating wet/dry climate states, is found to underestimate the probability of wet/dry periods >5 yr, and is rejected in favor of a gamma distribution for simulating the run lengths of the wet/dry IPO-PDO states. For the second level of the hierarchy, a seasonal rainfall model is conditioned on the simulated IPO-PDO state. The model is able to replicate observed statistics such as seasonal and multiyear accumulated rainfall distributions and interannual autocorrelations. Mean seasonal rainfall in the IPO-PDO dry states is found to be 15%-28% lower than the wet state at the case study sites. In comparison, an annual lag-one autoregressive model is unable to adequately capture the observed rainfall distribution within separate IPO-PDO states. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.Benjamin J. Henley, Mark A. Thyer, George Kuczera and Stewart W. Frank

Combination therapy as a potential risk factor for the development of type 2 diabetes in patients with schizophrenia: the GOMAP study.

BACKGROUND: Schizophrenia (SCZ) is associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D). The potential diabetogenic effect of concomitant application of psychotropic treatment classes in patients with SCZ has not yet been evaluated. The overarching goal of the Genetic Overlap between Metabolic and Psychiatric disease (GOMAP) study is to assess the effect of pharmacological, anthropometric, lifestyle and clinical measurements, helping elucidate the mechanisms underlying the aetiology of T2D. METHODS: The GOMAP case-control study (Genetic Overlap between Metabolic and Psychiatric disease) includes hospitalized patients with SCZ, some of whom have T2D. We enrolled 1653 patients with SCZ; 611 with T2D and 1042 patients without T2D. This is the first study of SCZ and T2D comorbidity at this scale in the Greek population. We retrieved detailed information on first- and second-generation antipsychotics (FGA, SGA), antidepressants and mood stabilizers, applied as monotherapy, 2-drug combination, or as 3- or more drug combination. We assessed the effects of psychotropic medication, body mass index, duration of schizophrenia, number of hospitalizations and physical activity on risk of T2D. Using logistic regression, we calculated crude and adjusted odds ratios (OR) to identify associations between demographic factors and the psychiatric medications. RESULTS: Patients with SCZ on a combination of at least three different classes of psychiatric drugs had a higher risk of T2D [OR 1.81 (95% CI 1.22-2.69); p = 0.003] compared to FGA alone therapy, after adjustment for age, BMI, sex, duration of SCZ and number of hospitalizations. We did not find evidence for an association of SGA use or the combination of drugs belonging to two different classes of psychiatric medications with increased risk of T2D [1.27 (0.84-1.93), p = 0.259 and 0.98 (0.71-1.35), p = 0.885, respectively] compared to FGA use. CONCLUSIONS: We find an increased risk of T2D in patients with SCZ who take a combination of at least three different psychotropic medication classes compared to patients whose medication consists only of one or two classes of drugs

MicroRNA Expression in Abdominal and Gluteal Adipose Tissue Is Associated with mRNA Expression Levels and Partly Genetically Driven

To understand how miRNAs contribute to the molecular phenotype of adipose tissues and related traits, we performed global miRNA expression profiling in subcutaneous abdominal and gluteal adipose tissue of 70 human subjects and characterised which miRNAs were differentially expressed between these tissues. We found that 12% of the miRNAs were significantly differentially expressed between abdominal and gluteal adipose tissue (FDR adjusted p<0.05) in the primary study, of which 59 replicated in a follow-up study of 40 additional subjects. Further, 14 miRNAs were found to be associated with metabolic syndrome case-control status in abdominal tissue and three of these replicated (primary study: FDR adjusted p<0.05, replication: p<0.05 and directionally consistent effect). Genome-wide genotyping was performed in the 70 subjects to enable miRNA expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis. Candidate miRNA eQTLs were followed-up in the additional 40 subjects and six significant, independent cis-located miRNA eQTLs (primary study: p<0.001; replication: p<0.05 and directionally consistent effect) were identified. Finally, global mRNA expression profiling was performed in both tissues to enable association analysis between miRNA and target mRNA expression levels. We find 22% miRNAs in abdominal and 9% miRNAs in gluteal adipose tissue with expression levels significantly associated with the expression of corresponding target mRNAs (FDR adjusted p<0.05). Taken together, our results indicate a clear difference in the miRNA molecular phenotypic profile of abdominal and gluteal adipose tissue, that the expressions of some miRNAs are influenced by cis-located genetic variants and that miRNAs are associated with expression levels of their predicted mRNA targets

Erratum: Sequence data and association statistics from 12,940 type 2 diabetes cases and controls.

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2017.179

New genetic loci implicated in fasting glucose homeostasis and their impact on type 2 diabetes risk.

Levels of circulating glucose are tightly regulated. To identify new loci influencing glycemic traits, we performed meta-analyses of 21 genome-wide association studies informative for fasting glucose, fasting insulin and indices of beta-cell function (HOMA-B) and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) in up to 46,186 nondiabetic participants. Follow-up of 25 loci in up to 76,558 additional subjects identified 16 loci associated with fasting glucose and HOMA-B and two loci associated with fasting insulin and HOMA-IR. These include nine loci newly associated with fasting glucose (in or near ADCY5, MADD, ADRA2A, CRY2, FADS1, GLIS3, SLC2A2, PROX1 and C2CD4B) and one influencing fasting insulin and HOMA-IR (near IGF1). We also demonstrated association of ADCY5, PROX1, GCK, GCKR and DGKB-TMEM195 with type 2 diabetes. Within these loci, likely biological candidate genes influence signal transduction, cell proliferation, development, glucose-sensing and circadian regulation. Our results demonstrate that genetic studies of glycemic traits can identify type 2 diabetes risk loci, as well as loci containing gene variants that are associated with a modest elevation in glucose levels but are not associated with overt diabetes

Cohort-wide deep whole genome sequencing and the allelic architecture of complex traits.

The role of rare variants in complex traits remains uncharted. Here, we conduct deep whole genome sequencing of 1457 individuals from an isolated population, and test for rare variant burdens across six cardiometabolic traits. We identify a role for rare regulatory variation, which has hitherto been missed. We find evidence of rare variant burdens that are independent of established common variant signals (ADIPOQ and adiponectin, P = 4.2 × 10-8; APOC3 and triglyceride levels, P = 1.5 × 10-26), and identify replicating evidence for a burden associated with triglyceride levels in FAM189B (P = 2.2 × 10-8), indicating a role for this gene in lipid metabolism

Coexpression Network Analysis in Abdominal and Gluteal Adipose Tissue Reveals Regulatory Genetic Loci for Metabolic Syndrome and Related Phenotypes

Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) is highly prevalent and has considerable public health impact, but its underlying genetic factors remain elusive. To identify gene networks involved in MetS, we conducted whole-genome expression and genotype profiling on abdominal (ABD) and gluteal (GLU) adipose tissue, and whole blood (WB), from 29 MetS cases and 44 controls. Co-expression network analysis for each tissue independently identified nine, six, and zero MetS–associated modules of coexpressed genes in ABD, GLU, and WB, respectively. Of 8,992 probesets expressed in ABD or GLU, 685 (7.6%) were expressed in ABD and 51 (0.6%) in GLU only. Differential eigengene network analysis of 8,256 shared probesets detected 22 shared modules with high preservation across adipose depots (DABD-GLU = 0.89), seven of which were associated with MetS (FDR P<0.01). The strongest associated module, significantly enriched for immune response–related processes, contained 94/620 (15%) genes with inter-depot differences. In an independent cohort of 145/141 twins with ABD and WB longitudinal expression data, median variability in ABD due to familiality was greater for MetS–associated versus un-associated modules (ABD: 0.48 versus 0.18, P = 0.08; GLU: 0.54 versus 0.20, P = 7.8×10−4). Cis-eQTL analysis of probesets associated with MetS (FDR P<0.01) and/or inter-depot differences (FDR P<0.01) provided evidence for 32 eQTLs. Corresponding eSNPs were tested for association with MetS–related phenotypes in two GWAS of >100,000 individuals; rs10282458, affecting expression of RARRES2 (encoding chemerin), was associated with body mass index (BMI) (P = 6.0×10−4); and rs2395185, affecting inter-depot differences of HLA-DRB1 expression, was associated with high-density lipoprotein (P = 8.7×10−4) and BMI–adjusted waist-to-hip ratio (P = 2.4×10−4). Since many genes and their interactions influence complex traits such as MetS, integrated analysis of genotypes and coexpression networks across multiple tissues relevant to clinical traits is an efficient strategy to identify novel associations