Chaotic Dynamics in Optimal Monetary Policy

There is by now a large consensus in modern monetary policy. This consensus has been built upon a dynamic general equilibrium model of optimal monetary policy as developed by, e.g., Goodfriend and King (1997), Clarida et al. (1999), Svensson (1999) and Woodford (2003). In this paper we extend the standard optimal monetary policy model by introducing nonlinearity into the Phillips curve. Under the specific form of nonlinearity proposed in our paper (which allows for convexity and concavity and secures closed form solutions), we show that the introduction of a nonlinear Phillips curve into the structure of the standard model in a discrete time and deterministic framework produces radical changes to the major conclusions regarding stability and the efficiency of monetary policy. We emphasize the following main results: (i) instead of a unique fixed point we end up with multiple equilibria; (ii) instead of saddle--path stability, for different sets of parameter values we may have saddle stability, totally unstable equilibria and chaotic attractors; (iii) for certain degrees of convexity and/or concavity of the Phillips curve, where endogenous fluctuations arise, one is able to encounter various results that seem intuitively correct. Firstly, when the Central Bank pays attention essentially to inflation targeting, the inflation rate has a lower mean and is less volatile; secondly, when the degree of price stickiness is high, the inflation rate displays a larger mean and higher volatility (but this is sensitive to the values given to the parameters of the model); and thirdly, the higher the target value of the output gap chosen by the Central Bank, the higher is the inflation rate and its volatility.Comment: 11 page

CERVANTES: A Model-Based Approach for Service-Oriented Systems Development

Context: The benefits of the Model-Driven Software Engineering application for Service-Oriented Computing. Objective: This paper proposes a Model-Based approach for Service-Oriented Systems Development. Method: Following the Model-Driven Reverse Engineering process, from the models discovery, to the generation of the current Model-Based Approach for Service-Oriented Systems Development. Results: The CERVANTES metamodel is presented and compared to other initiatives. Conclusions: This study shows how Model-Driven Engineering can be used to develop Service Oriented Systems in practice

La cerámica de estilo Cogotas I y los ciclos culturales en las postrimerías de la Edad del Bronce en Navarra

En el presente artículo se analizan los yacimientos conocidos en Navarra con cerámica decorada de estilo Cogotas I, situándolos en su contexto cronológico y cultural. Se analiza la división del territorio en dos grupos con importantes diferencias culturales

The role of environmental influences in the complex relationship between borderline personality disorder and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder : review of recent findings

In recent years, the existence of possible developmental pathways from childhood Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) to adult Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD) has been suggested. The existence of common genetic factors has been described but there is little evidence on the role of environmental factors in the possible transition from one disorder to another throughout life. The main goal of this work is to review the literature about the existing evidence on childhood traumas as factors that mediate the risk of developing BPD in children with ADHD. A literature search was conducted using PubMed, Science Direct and PsychInfo databases. Criteria included studies of BPD and ADHD relationships and childhood traumas as environmental influences from epidemiological or clinical samples. The review only identified 4 studies that matched the search criteria. All studies retrospectively analyzed childhood traumas, and adult patients with BPD, with or without comorbid ADHD, were the most frequently mentioned. The analyzed evidence reinforces the relationship between the number of childhood traumas and higher clinical severity. Three of these analyzed studies describe an increased the risk of children with ADHD who report emotional and sexual traumatic experiences to develop BPD in adulthood. The experience of traumatic childhood events, especially those of an emotional type, may have a mediating effect of an increased risk of developing adult BPD in childhood ADHD patients. However, to consider them as risk factors, more studies, and especially longitudinal studies, are necessary to clarify the probable transactional process between the two disorders. Evidence from these studies may be helpful to develop early intervention programs to reduce the functional impairment associated with the two disorders

Clinical manifestations of intermediate allele carriers in Huntington disease

OBJECTIVE: There is controversy about the clinical consequences of intermediate alleles (IAs) in Huntington disease (HD). The main objective of this study was to establish the clinical manifestations of IA carriers for a prospective, international, European HD registry. METHODS: We assessed a cohort of participants at risk with <36 CAG repeats of the huntingtin (HTT) gene. Outcome measures were the Unified Huntington\u27s Disease Rating Scale (UHDRS) motor, cognitive, and behavior domains, Total Functional Capacity (TFC), and quality of life (Short Form-36 [SF-36]). This cohort was subdivided into IA carriers (27-35 CAG) and controls (<27 CAG) and younger vs older participants. IA carriers and controls were compared for sociodemographic, environmental, and outcome measures. We used regression analysis to estimate the association of age and CAG repeats on the UHDRS scores. RESULTS: Of 12,190 participants, 657 (5.38%) with <36 CAG repeats were identified: 76 IA carriers (11.56%) and 581 controls (88.44%). After correcting for multiple comparisons, at baseline, we found no significant differences between IA carriers and controls for total UHDRS motor, SF-36, behavioral, cognitive, or TFC scores. However, older participants with IAs had higher chorea scores compared to controls (p = 0.001). Linear regression analysis showed that aging was the most contributing factor to increased UHDRS motor scores (p = 0.002). On the other hand, 1-year follow-up data analysis showed IA carriers had greater cognitive decline compared to controls (p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Although aging worsened the UHDRS scores independently of the genetic status, IAs might confer a late-onset abnormal motor and cognitive phenotype. These results might have important implications for genetic counseling. CLINICALTRIALSGOV IDENTIFIER: NCT01590589

Microcellular polymer films based on cross-linked 1-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone and methyl methacrylate

A series of cross-linked copolymer films based on 1-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone and methyl methacrylate were produced using different poly(ethylene glycol) dimethacrylates as cross-linking agents. The average molecular mass of the cross-linking agent was varied, then allowing the foaming process using supercritical CO2 (ScCO2), obtaining microcellular films with different cellular structures as a function of the molecular mass of the cross-linking agent. The chemical structure, swelling behavior, CO2 uptake and cellular morphology of the materials were studied. Finally, the influence of the different cross-linking agents in the mechanical properties was also evaluated by measuring the tensile properties of the microcellular films.Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER) and the Spanish Agencia Estatal de Investigación (AEI) (MAT2017-84501-R

Encouraging natural ventilation to improve indoor environmental conditions at schools. Case studies in the north of Spain before and during COVID

The COVID pandemic has strongly affected daily life both in Spanish schools and worldwide. Providing the best environmental conditions for children allowing face-to-face learning with healthy and safe indoor spaces is a challenge. In the present study, empirical research about how these environmental conditions change with COVID is presented comparing the situation from March 2020 to January 2021. The methodology combines surveys conducted in nine schools with a case study in a selected school where a detailed monitoring of the building was developed during both heating seasons. This data ana- lyzes the impact of the new COVID prevention protocols on indoor environmental conditions (especially those related to natural ventilation). Results show a mean CO2 reduction of 1,400 ppm, having in the sec- ond term values around 1,000 ppm, although temperatures diminished nearly 2 °C to mean values of 18 °C. Evolution of temperature and CO2 concentration throughout the day was also analyzed, being these indoor conditions especially important for the children with poorer health. Mechanical ventilation with heating recovery should complement natural ventilation, at least during the coldest months or hours of the day, although systems have to be carefully designed and installed to work effectively