Analyzing Textual Data for Fatality Classification in Afghanistan's Armed Conflicts: A BERT Approach

Afghanistan has witnessed many armed conflicts throughout history, especially in the past 20 years; these events have had a significant impact on human lives, including military and civilians, with potential fatalities. In this research, we aim to leverage state-of-the-art machine learning techniques to classify the outcomes of Afghanistan armed conflicts to either fatal or non-fatal based on their textual descriptions provided by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) dataset. The dataset contains comprehensive descriptions of armed conflicts in Afghanistan that took place from August 2021 to March 2023. The proposed approach leverages the power of BERT (Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers), a cutting-edge language representation model in natural language processing. The classifier utilizes the raw textual description of an event to estimate the likelihood of the event resulting in a fatality. The model achieved impressive performance on the test set with an accuracy of 98.8%, recall of 98.05%, precision of 99.6%, and an F1 score of 98.82%. These results highlight the model's robustness and indicate its potential impact in various areas such as resource allocation, policymaking, and humanitarian aid efforts in Afghanistan. The model indicates a machine learning-based text classification approach using the ACLED dataset to accurately classify fatality in Afghanistan armed conflicts, achieving robust performance with the BERT model and paving the way for future endeavors in predicting event severity in Afghanistan.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, 2 table

Intermediate Band Solar Cell with Extreme Broadband Spectrum Quantum Efficiency

We report, for the first time, about an intermediate band solar cell implemented with InAs/AlGaAs quantum dots whose photoresponse expands from 250 to ~ 6000  nm. To our knowledge, this is the broadest quantum efficiency reported to date for a solar cell and demonstrates that the intermediate band solar cell is capable of producing photocurrent when illuminated with photons whose energy equals the energy of the lowest band gap. We show experimental evidence indicating that this result is in agreement with the theory of the intermediate band solar cell, according to which the generation recombination between the intermediate band and the valence band makes this photocurrent detectable

Predictive Cyber Situational Awareness and Personalized Blacklisting: A Sequential Rule Mining Approach

Cybersecurity adopts data mining for its ability to extract concealed and indistinct patterns in the data, such as for the needs of alert correlation. Inferring common attack patterns and rules from the alerts helps in understanding the threat landscape for the defenders and allows for the realization of cyber situational awareness, including the projection of ongoing attacks. In this paper, we explore the use of data mining, namely sequential rule mining, in the analysis of intrusion detection alerts. We employed a dataset of 12 million alerts from 34 intrusion detection systems in 3 organizations gathered in an alert sharing platform, and processed it using our analytical framework. We execute the mining of sequential rules that we use to predict security events, which we utilize to create a predictive blacklist. Thus, the recipients of the data from the sharing platform will receive only a small number of alerts of events that are likely to occur instead of a large number of alerts of past events. The predictive blacklist has the size of only 3 % of the raw data, and more than 60 % of its entries are shown to be successful in performing accurate predictions in operational, real-world settings

A Systematic Review of Intrusion Detection using Hidden Markov Models: Approaches, Applications, and Challenges

Nowadays, due to the increasing use of the Internet, security of computer systems and networks has become one of the main quality of service (QoS) criteria in ICT-based services. Apart from using traditional security solutions in software systems such as cryptography, firewalls and access control mechanisms, utilizing intrusion detection systems are also necessary. Intrusion detection is a process in which a set of methods are used to detect malicious activities against the victims. Many techniques for detecting potential intrusions in software systems have already been introduced. One of the most important techniques for intrusion detection based on machine learning is using Hidden Markov Models (HMM). Three main advantages of these techniques are high degree of precision, detecting unseen intrusion activities, and visual representation of intrusion models. Hence, in recent decades, many research communities have been working in HMM-based intrusion detection. Therefore, a large volume of research works has been published and hence, various research areas have emerged in this field. However, until now, there has been no systematic and up-to-date review of research works within the field. This paper aims to survey the research in this field and provide open problems and challenges based on the analysis of advantages, limitations, types of architectural models, and applications of current techniques

Bayesian Stackelberg games for cyber-security decision support

A decision support system for cyber-security is here presented. The system aims to select an optimal portfolio of security controls to counteract multi-stage attacks. The system has several components: a preventive optimisation to select controls for an initial defensive portfolio, a learning mechanism to estimate possible ongoing attacks, and an online optimisation selecting an optimal portfolio to counteract ongoing attacks. The system relies on efficient solutions of bi-level optimisations, in particular, the online optimisation is shown to be a Bayesian Stackelberg game solution. The proposed solution is shown to be more efficient than both classical solutions like Harsanyi transformation and more recent efficient solvers. Moreover, the proposed solution provides significant security improvements on mitigating ongoing attacks compared to previous approaches. The novel techniques here introduced rely on recent advances in Mixed-Integer Conic Programming (MICP), strong duality and totally unimodular matrices