Electricity Price Modeling Using Support Vector Machines by Considering Oil and Natural Gas Price Impacts

Accurate electricity price prediction is one of the most important parts of decision making for electricity market participants to make reasonable competing strategies. Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a novel algorithm based on a predictive modeling method and a powerful classification method in machine learning and data mining. Most of SVM-based and non-SVM-based models ignore other important factors in the electricity price dynamics and electricity price models are built regard to just historical electricity prices; However, electricity price has a strong correlation with other variables like oil and natural gas price. In this paper, single SVM model is used to combine diverse influential variables as 1-Historical Electricity Price of Germany 2-GASPOOL price as first natural gas reference price 3-Net-Connect-Germany (NCG) price as second natural gas reference price 4- West Texas Intermediate (WTI) daily price as US oil benchmark. The simulation results show that using oil and natural gas prices can improve SVM model prediction ability compared to the SVM models built on mere historical electricity price

Traffic Flow Prediction Using MI Algorithm and Considering Noisy and Data Loss Conditions: An Application to Minnesota Traffic Flow Prediction

Traffic flow forecasting is useful for controlling traffic flow, traffic lights, and travel times. This study uses a multi-layer perceptron neural network and the mutual information (MI) technique to forecast traffic flow and compares the prediction results with conventional traffic flow forecasting methods. The MI method is used to calculate the interdependency of historical traffic data and future traffic flow. In numerical case studies, the proposed traffic flow forecasting method was tested against data loss, changes in weather conditions, traffic congestion, and accidents. The outcomes were highly acceptable for all cases and showed the robustness of the proposed flow forecasting method

Research Article Balancing the Production Line by the Simulation and Statistics Techniques: A Case Study

Abstract: A wide range of the real world problems in industries are related to misbalances of the production line and excessive Work in Process parts (WIP). Simulation is an effective method to recognize these problems with consuming least cost and time. Moreover, total system efficiency of a production line can be extremely improved by examining different solution scenario via the simulation techniques. In this research, we utilize the simulation technique founded upon the software Enterprise Dynamics (ED) for evaluating the cause of these problems and trying to find the improvement solutions in Sadid Pipe and Equipment Company (SPECO). Two parameters of diameter and thickness are important factors affecting the time of workstations. The effects of these factors on process time are evaluated by hypothesis tests. Two improvement scenarios have been presented. In the first scenario, the layout design of the factory has been improved with regard to production process and bottleneck station. In the second one, an essential improvement has been carried out by reduction in wastages. Regarding the accomplished simulations, it is concluded that it is possible to eliminate the existing bottleneck by implementing changes in the locations of production stations or reducing the waste in some stations. The improvements eventually result in balancing the production line

Finding Nash Equilibrium Point of Nonlinear Non-cooperative

Abstract In this paper a coevolutionary algorithm is developed to find the Nash Equilibrium (NE

Drug Interactions in Iranian Veterans With Chronic Spinal Cord Injury - A Descriptive Study

Background: Veterans with chronic spinal cord injury usually have various comorbidities. They are, therefore, visited by different doctors and use different medications. It is necessary to monitor the health of these veterans. One of the important issues in this regard is the attention to drug interactions. The purpose of this study was to investigate the drugs used and their interactions.Methods: This descriptive study of the cross-sectional studies was carried out retrospectively in 2015 under the Shefa Neuroscience Research Center’s supervision, examining the medical records of veterans with spinal cord injury participating in the health screening program at Khatam Alanbiya hospital in Tehran. Demographic data, comorbidities, used drugs, and the level of involvement collected. According to the FDA, drug interactions among the drugs used for each patient has evaluated and classified into three severe, moderate, and weak groups. SPSS v. 21 analyzed data.Results: The study population consisted of 404 men, ranging in age from 41 to 74, with a mean of 51.6 ± 6.4 years. One hundred forty-two of them (35.1%) had a complete injury, and 262 veterans (64.8%) had an incomplete injury. Only 17 veterans (4.2%) had no drug interactions. The number of drug interactions varied from 1 to 38, with an average of 5.9 ± 12.8 interactions per patient. The total number of interactions was 2856, of which 32.5% were weak, 55.3% moderate, and 12.2% severe, with a 95% confidence interval. Among the severe drug interactions in the study, the highest number belonged to the antidepressant drugs.Conclusion: This study highlights the necessity of developing a strategy for investigating and preventing drug interactions in veterans with chronic spinal cord injury. It has recommended that physicians pay more attention to other medications used by the patient and prescribe as little as possible of the drug and the drug with the least number of interactions

Review of management and monitoring of two crop shrimp production of Indian white shrimp Fenneropenaeus indicus in intensive culture system in Guatr Shrimp Farm, Sistan & Baloochestan Province

In line with the implementation of two Crop shrimp culture in year in Gwater shrimp Farming Site credits UNDP aims to increase production of crops per year, reducing the days of culture in the second crop using the nursery pond, control feed conversion ratio (FCR) and production management, Farming of Indian white Shrimp P.indicus in 4 private farm was done in 2008. Surveillance and monitoring of these farms, the possible obstacles to the harmful effects of management strengths and weaknesses and develop in the future was done in corporation of Offshore Fisheries Research Center of Chabahar and fisheries of Sistan and Balouchestan. First crop was successful, but the shrimp of Nursery pond and second crop due to the occurrence of white spot disease (WSSV) disease and casualties were died and did not actually do the work. The average minimum and maximum feed conversion in Culture period 1.46 and 1.96 respectively, in C2 _31 and C2 _ 14 farms were observed. Maximum production was 41,376 kg in farm C2 _31. The rainfall on 14 August severe flooding and water supplying cussed suddenly fall down of Inland channel water salinity at day 16-20 the August to 4-5 PPT and the PH go up to 8.8-9. After 2 days the white spot disease in South of site was confirmed and was transferred immediately to the north of site. (The pilots farm) The important thing was that the farm under two crop system as a last resort so that all First crop harvest but shrimp in Nursery pond were infected and with veterinary supervision of all infected ponds were then killed. The results showed that shrimp farming can be done in two periods in year with a predetermined .In this study the only factor that could have adverse effects on the project was Feed supply problems during the growing period and the consequences that it caused low average body weight and final harvested Shrimp resulted to delay in daily growth

Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) in Iran and its neighboring countries, 1990–2015

BACKGROUND: Summary measures of health are essential in making estimates of health status that are comparable across time and place. They can be used for assessing the performance of health systems, informing effective policy making, and monitoring the progress of nations toward achievement of sustainable development goals. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) provides disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) as main summary measures of health. We assessed the trends of health status in Iran and 15 neighboring countries using these summary measures. METHODS: We used the results of GBD 2015 to present the levels and trends of DALYs, life expectancy (LE), and HALE in Iran and its 15 neighboring countries from 1990 to 2015. For each country, we assessed the ratio of observed levels of DALYs and HALE to those expected based on socio-demographic index (SDI), an indicator composed of measures of total fertility rate, income per capita, and average years of schooling. RESULTS: All-age numbers of DALYs reached over 19 million years in Iran in 2015. The all-age number of DALYs has remained stable during the past two decades in Iran, despite the decreasing trends in all-age and age-standardized rates. The all-cause DALY rates decreased from 47,200 in 1990 to 28,400 per 100,000 in 2015. The share of non-communicable diseases in DALYs increased in Iran (from 42% to 74%) and all of its neighbors between 1990 and 2015; the pattern of change is similar in almost all 16 countries. The DALY rates for NCDs and injuries in Iran were higher than global rates and the average rate in High Middle SDI countries, while those for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders were much lower in Iran. Among men, cardiovascular diseases ranked first in all countries of the region except for Bahrain. Among women, they ranked first in 13 countries. Life expectancy and HALE show a consistent increase in all countries. Still, there are dissimilarities indicating a generally low LE and HALE in Afghanistan and Pakistan and high expectancy in Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Iran ranked 11th in terms of LE at birth and 12th in terms of HALE at birth in 1990 which improved to 9th for both metrics in 2015. Turkey and Iran had the highest increase in LE and HALE from 1990 to 2015 while the lowest increase was observed in Armenia, Pakistan, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Iraq. CONCLUSIONS: The levels and trends in causes of DALYs, life expectancy, and HALE generally show similarities between the 16 countries, although differences exist. The differences observed between countries can be attributed to a myriad of determinants, including social, cultural, ethnic, religious, political, economic, and environmental factors as well as the performance of the health system. Investigating the differences between countries can inform more effective health policy and resource allocation. Concerted efforts at national and regional levels are required to tackle the emerging burden of non-communicable diseases and injuries in Iran and its neighbors

The Burden of Mental Disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2013

Charara R, Forouzanfar M, Naghavi M, et al. The Burden of Mental Disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2013. PLOS ONE. 2017;12(1): e0169575.The Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) is witnessing an increase in chronic disorders, including mental illness. With ongoing unrest, this is expected to rise. This is the first study to quantify the burden of mental disorders in the EMR. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) 2013. DALYs (disability-adjusted life years) allow assessment of both premature mortality (years of life lost-YLLs) and nonfatal outcomes (years lived with disability-YLDs). DALYs are computed by adding YLLs and YLDs for each age-sex-country group. In 2013, mental disorders contributed to 5.6% of the total disease burden in the EMR (1894 DALYS/100,000 population): 2519 DALYS/100,000 (2590/100,000 males, 2426/100,000 females) in high-income countries, 1884 DALYS/100,000 (1618/100,000 males, 2157/100,000 females) in middle-income countries, 1607 DALYS/100,000 (1500/100,000 males, 1717/100,000 females) in low-income countries. Females had a greater proportion of burden due to mental disorders than did males of equivalent ages, except for those under 15 years of age. The highest proportion of DALYs occurred in the 25-49 age group, with a peak in the 35-39 years age group (5344 DALYs/100,000). The burden of mental disorders in EMR increased from 1726 DALYs/100,000 in 1990 to 1912 DALYs/100,000 in 2013 (10.8% increase). Within the mental disorders group in EMR, depressive disorders accounted for most DALYs, followed by anxiety disorders. Among EMR countries, Palestine had the largest burden of mental disorders. Nearly all EMR countries had a higher mental disorder burden compared to the global level. Our findings call for EMR ministries of health to increase provision of mental health services and to address the stigma of mental illness. Moreover, our results showing the accelerating burden of mental health are alarming as the region is seeing an increased level of instability. Indeed, mental health problems, if not properly addressed, will lead to an increased burden of diseases in the region

Burden of musculoskeletal disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990–2013: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Moradi-Lakeh M, Forouzanfar MH, Vollset SE, et al. Burden of musculoskeletal disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990–2013: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. 2017;76(8):annrheumdis-2016-210146