Detecting Common Longevity Trends by a Multiple Population Approach

Recently the interest in the development of country and longevity risk models has been growing. The investigation of long-run equilibrium relationships could provide valuable information about the factors driving changes in mortality, in particular across ages and across countries. In order to investigate cross-country common longevity trends, tools to quantify, compare, and model the strength of dependence become essential. On one hand, it is necessary to take into account either the dependence for adjacent age groups or the dependence structure across time in a single population setting-a sort of intradependence structure. On the other hand, the dependence across multiple populations, which we describe as interdependence, can be explored for capturing common long-run relationships between countries. The objective of our work is to produce longevity projections by taking into account the presence of various forms of cross-sectional and temporal dependencies in the error processes of multiple populations, considering mortality data from different countries. The algorithm that we propose combines model-based predictions in the Lee-Carter (LC) framework with a bootstrap procedure for dependent data, and so both the historical parametric structure and the intragroup error correlation structure are preserved. We introduce a model which applies a sieve bootstrap to the residuals of the LC model and is able to reproduce, in the sampling, the dependence structure of the data under consideration. In the current article, the algorithm that we build is applied to a pool of populations by using ideas from panel data; we refer to this new algorithm as the Multiple Lee-Carter Panel Sieve (MLCPS). We are interested in estimating the relationship between populations of similar socioeconomic conditions. The empirical results show that the MLCPS approach works well in the presence of dependence

The Poisson Log-Bilinear Lee-Carter Model: Applications Of efficient bootstrap methods to annuity analyses

Life insurance companies deal with two fundamental types of risks when issuing annuity contracts: financial risk and demographic risk. Recent work on the latter has focused on modeling the trend in mortality as a stochastic process. A popular method for modeling death rates is the Lee-Carter model. This methodology has become widely used, and various extensions and modifications have been proposed to obtain a broader interpretation and to capture the main features of the dynamics of mortality rates. In order to improve the measurement of uncertainty in survival probability estimates, in particular for older ages, the paper proposes an extension based on simulation procedures and on the bootstrap methodology. It aims to obtain more reliable and accurate mortality projections, based on the idea of obtaining an acceptable accuracy of the estimate by means of variance reducing techniques. In this way the forecasting procedure becomes more efficient. The longevity question constitutes a critical element in the solvency appraisal of pension annuities. The demographic models used for the cash flow distributions in a portfolio impact on the mathematical reserve and surplus calculations and affect the risk management choices for a pension plan. The paper extends the investigation of the impact of survival uncertainty for life annuity portfolios and for a guaranteed annuity option in the case where interest rates are stochastic. In a framework in which insurance companies need to use internal models for risk management purposes and for determining their solvency capital requirement, the authors consider the surplus value, calculated as the ratio between the market value of the projected assets to that of the liabilities, as a meaningful measure of the company's financial position, expressing the degree to which the liabilities are covered by the assets

Efficacy of biofeedback rehabilitation based on visual evoked potentials analysis in patients with advanced age-related macular degeneration

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a progressive and degenerative disorder of the macula. In advanced stages, it is characterized by the formation of areas of geographic atrophy or fibrous scars in the central macula, which determines irreversible loss of central vision. These patients can benefit from visual rehabilitation programmes with acoustic "biofeedback" mechanisms that can instruct the patient to move fixation from the central degenerated macular area to an adjacent healthy area, with a reorganization of the primary visual cortex. In this prospective, comparative, non-randomized study we evaluated the efficacy of visual rehabilitation with an innovative acoustic biofeedback training system based on visual evoked potentials (VEP) real-time examination (Retimax Vision Trainer, CSO, Florence), in a series of patients with advanced AMD compared to a control group. Patients undergoing training were subjected to ten consecutive visual training sessions of 10min each, performed twice a week. Patients in the control group did not receive any training. VEP biofeedback rehabilitation seems to improve visual acuity, reading performances, contrast sensitivity, retinal fixation and sensitivity and quality of life in AMD patients

Tranexamic acid therapy in pediatric cardiac surgery:a single center study

Background: We conducted a retrospective study of cyanotic and acyanotic patients undergoing cardiopulmonary bypass to determine the effect of tranexamic acid on blood loss and blood products administered during the operation in pediatric cardiac surgery. Methods: From January 2008 to December 2011, during 2 different periods, a total of 231 pediatric patients undergoing cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (123 cyanotic, 108 acyanotic) were included in this study. A total of 104 patients were in the antifibrinolytic group and exclusively treated with tranexamic acid that was given as a bolus of 20 mg/kg-1 after anesthetic induction and 20 mg/kg-1 after protamine. The other 127 patients were in the control group. We analyzed intraoperative and postoperative outcomes of tranexamic acid administration. Results: There were no differences in mortality or operative time, but blood loss in 48 hours was greater in the control group (p = 0.0012). A significant difference was found in the amount of intraoperative erythrocyte concentrate transfused (140 ± 55 vs 170 ± 78 mL, p = 0.0011) but not in number. The number and amount of erythrocyte concentrate transfused in the first 48 postoperative hours were also greater in the control group (45 vs 77 patients, p = 0.012; 100 ± 40 vs 120 ± 55 mL, p = 0.0022). There were not many differences in the effect of tranexamic acid between the cyanotic and acyanotic subgroup. Conclusions: This retrospective study provides evidence that tranexamic acid may be used in the field of congenital cardiac surgery effectively

First experience with sildenafil after Fontan operation: short-term outcomes.

Background We conducted a retrospective study to determine the effect of oral sildenafil administrated as monotherapy after Fontan operation in single ventricle physiology. Methods From January 2008 to March 2012, during two different periods, a total of 30 pediatric patients undergoing Fontan operation by extracardiac conduit were included in this study. Thirteen patients were in the sildenafil group and exclusively treated with sildenafil given at the dose of 0.35 mg/kg through a nasogastric tube and then orally every 4 h, at the start of cardiopulmonary bypass and for the first postoperative week; then we reduced and discontinued the therapy. The other 17 patients were in the control group. No other vasodilator was administered in both groups. We analyzed intraoperative and postoperative outcomes of sildenafil administration. Results There were no differences in mortality or operative time. The total and relative drainage loss was lower in the sildenafil group (PU0.0003 and 0.0045). The hemodynamic parameters showed a better condition in the sildenafil group, with a lower mean pulmonary artery pressure (mPAP) (PU0.0001) and better mPAP to mean systemic blood pressure (mSBP) ratio (PU0.0043), whereas there was no difference in peripheral oxygen saturation (PU0.31). The sidenafil group patients showed other additional positive differences as well as lower inotropic score (PU0.0005) and intubation time (PU0.0004). No complications related to the use of sildenafil were noted in any of the children studied. Conclusion This initial experience provides evidence that sildenafil may be used in postoperative Fontan operation with positive effectiveness

Unveiling a hidden fortification system at “Faraglioni” Middle Bronze Age Village of Ustica Island (Palermo, Italy) through ERT and GPR prospections

We carried out a geophysical research project in the Middle Bronze Age village of Ustica (Palermo, Sicily, Italy), named “Faraglioni Village” after the stack formations which detach from the coast north of the archaeological site. The investigation, which comprised Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) and Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) techniques, allowed us to discover the buried foundations of an outwork fortification system never evidenced by previous archaeological studies, only hypothesised from the observation of aerial photography and partially outcropping boulders, which align roughly parallel to the main defensive wall of the Village. Our geophysical prospection involved the entire 250 m-long arc of the outward village defensive wall, with the acquisition of eleven ERT profiles and 27 GPR scans. The techniques were selected based on both favourable logistics and methods applicability: ERT sections allowed us to trace a series of high-resistivity anomalies arranged to form an arc-shaped structure along the perimeter of the defensive wall. GPR investigation was localised in the most accommodating patch of terrain of the site, with the effort of intercepting clear enough sections of the target, to determine more accurately its shape, depth, and overall dimensions. Our discovery paves the way for new investigations, mainly aimed at defining the timing of construction of the fortification system, as well as the function of the remains of other architectural structures identified close to the wall, which could represent the target of further geophysical investigations

Multiple mortality modeling in Poisson Lee-Carter framework

The academic literature in longevity field has recently focused on models for detecting multiple population trends (D'Amato et al., 2012b; Njenga and Sherris, 2011; Russolillo et al., 2011, etc.). In particular, increasing interest has been shown about "related" population dynamics or "parent" populations characterized by similar socioeconomic conditions and eventually also by geographical proximity. These studies suggest dependence across multiple populations and common long-run relationships between countries (for instance, see Lazar et al., 2009). In order to investigate cross-country longevity common trends, we adopt a multiple population approach. The algorithm we propose retains the parametric structure of the Lee-Carter model, extending the basic framework to include some cross-dependence in the error term. As far as time dependence is concerned, we allow for all idiosyncratic components (both in the common stochastic trend and in the error term) to follow a linear process, thus considering a highly flexible specification for the serial dependence structure of our data. We also relax the assumption of normality, which is typical of early studies on mortality (Lee and Carter, 1992) and on factor models (see e.g., the textbook by Anderson, 1984). The empirical results show that the multiple Lee-Carter approach works well in the presence of dependence

Computational framework for longevity risk management

Longevity risk threatens the financial stability of private and government sponsored defined benefit pension systems as well as social security schemes, in an environment already characterized by persistent low interest rates and heightened financial uncertainty. The mortality experience of countries in the industrialized world would suggest a substantial age-time interaction, with the two dominant trends affecting different age groups at different times. From a statistical point of view, this indicates a dependence structure. It is observed that mortality improvements are similar for individuals of contiguous ages (Wills and Sherris, Integrating financial and demographic longevity risk models: an Australian model for financial applications, Discussion Paper PI-0817, 2008). Moreover, considering the dataset by single ages, the correlations between the residuals for adjacent age groups tend to be high (as noted in Denton et al., J Population Econ 18:203-227, 2005). This suggests that there is value in exploring the dependence structure, also across time, in other words the inter-period correlation. In this research, we focus on the projections of mortality rates, contravening the most commonly encountered dependence property which is the "lack of dependence" (Denuit et al., Actuarial theory for dependent risks: measures. Orders and models, Wiley, New York, 2005). By taking into account the presence of dependence across age and time which leads to systematic over-estimation or under-estimation of uncertainty in the estimates (Liu and Braun, J Probability Stat, 813583:15, 2010), the paper analyzes a tailor-made bootstrap methodology for capturing the spatial dependence in deriving confidence intervals for mortality projection rates. We propose a method which leads to a prudent measure of longevity risk, avoiding the structural incompleteness of the ordinary simulation bootstrap methodology which involves the assumption of independence

IL-6 secretion in osteoarthritis patients is mediated by chondrocyte-synovial fibroblast cross-talk and is enhanced by obesity

Increasing evidence suggests that inflammation plays a central role in driving joint pathology in certain patients with osteoarthritis (OA). Since many patients with OA are obese and increased adiposity is associated with chronic inflammation, we investigated whether obese patients with hip OA exhibited differential pro-inflammatory cytokine signalling and peripheral and local lymphocyte populations, compared to normal weight hip OA patients. No differences in either peripheral blood or local lymphocyte populations were found between obese and normal-weight hip OA patients. However, synovial fibroblasts from obese OA patients were found to secrete greater amounts of the pro-inflammatory cytokine IL-6, compared to those from normal-weight patients (p < 0.05), which reflected the greater levels of IL-6 detected in the synovial fluid of the obese OA patients. Investigation into the inflammatory mechanism demonstrated that IL-6 secretion from synovial fibroblasts was induced by chondrocyte-derived IL-6. Furthermore, this IL-6 inflammatory response, mediated by chondrocyte-synovial fibroblast cross-talk, was enhanced by the obesity-related adipokine leptin. This study suggests that obesity enhances the cross-talk between chondrocytes and synovial fibroblasts via raised levels of the pro-inflammatory adipokine leptin, leading to greater production of IL-6 in OA patients