Can Increased Trade Prevent Conflict with China?

In the early 1990s, the United States began to run a significant trade deficit with China due to the dual forces of greater trade liberalization and China’s transition from a command economy towards a market economy. Proponents of free trade with China argue that greater integration will lead to a convergence of interests that reaches beyond economics. Despite growing economic and cultural ties with China, the U.S. still maintains military assets to defend Taiwan. Large scale conflicts on the order of cold war expectations are unlikely due to the growing importance of multinational entities such as international institutions, corporations, and nonprofits. This means that developed nations must contend with world opinion or forego the assistance of these groups in pursuing national interests. Situations such as Taiwan could limit economic integration and potentially introduce long term political risk with an impact on the U.S. economy similar to the Middle East effect on oil price. While the Chinese government presents itself as a monolithic entity to foreigners, the ability of the central government to enforce policy differs greatly throughout the country. The potential for political instability will likely increase as China becomes more integrated with the rest of the world. Western nations have already experienced the challenges of applying World Trade Organization regulations on market driven economies. The effects will be even more difficult to manage in China’s hybrid economy. The Chinese government’s primary concern is to govern the entire nation with diverse cultures, languages, and economic interests despite a lack of infrastructure and strong institutional development. To do this without some form of participatory government requires a population which is not critical of government policies. This is achieved through the promise of economic growth. The first section of the paper will review the current literature on financial integration and trade liberalization. Many analysts have commented on China’s increasing foreign reserves. The US trade deficit with China is primarily financed through the sale of US treasury bonds and the Chinese central bank is one of the largest buyers of these securities. A substantial decrease in the demand for these securities could lead to a dramatic increase in the US interest rate. While China may not reduce the amount of Dollars purchased, the use of these reserves is also controversial. China’s accumulation of Dollars has been used to secure resources in Africa and oil in the Middle East. While China’s leaders may be inclined to keep large currency reserves to support future exchange rate policy, there remains an increasing amount of Dollars which cannot be spent. This Dollar surplus is a potential threat to world economic stability. The second section will describe the current trade relationship and the challenges ahead. In addition to the trade deficit and the exchange rate, the U.S. has recently imposed countervailing tariffs on glossy paper products to offset subsidies provided by the Chinese government. The terms of China’s accession to the WTO have been difficult to implement due to both caution on the part of the Chinese government and the ability of the government to enforce policy. Over the past several months, the U.S. has adopted a tougher stance on Chinese trade conflicts largely as a response of the Bush administration to a democratic congress rather than a change in American trade policy. Previous incidents have introduced temporary volatility into American financial markets, but could China introduce sustained volatility? If so, what would be the long term impact of sustained market volatility to the U.S. economy? The third section will explain the degree to which the U.S.-China trade relationship can introduce volatility in the U.S. markets and explain its long term effects. The U.S. attracts large amounts of foreign portfolio investment based on the relatively low risk and efficiency of American markets. A lack of capital controls combined with America’s dependence on foreign capital could cause a significant decrease in investment if the market were perceived to be too risky when compared to the rate of return. While capital flight on the scale of the Asian financial crisis is unlikely, any substantial loss of foreign investment could significantly impact American economic growth. The long term impact of a sustained current account deficit must be considered in terms of the valuation and portfolio balance effects. The relationship between the current account, exchange rate, and the national debt will be examined in order to determine the amount of a sustainable current account deficit. The conclusion will place the U.S.-China trade deficit in perspective with a brief description of the Gulf Cooperation Council’s relationship with the U.S. This section will also describe the U.S. policies necessary to prepare for a stronger Chinese economy with a floating exchange rate

Assignment, garnishment, and consumer credit in Illinois (Institute of Labor and Industrial Relations. Bulletin No. 26)

Bibliographical footnotes

An Analysis of Early Renal Transplant Protocol Biopsies - the High Incidence of Subclinical Tubulitis

To investigate the possibility that we have been underestimating the true incidence of acute rejection, we began to perform protocol biopsies after kidney transplantation. This analysis looks at the one-week biopsies. Between March 1 and October 1, 1999, 100 adult patients undergoing cadaveric kidney or kidney/pancreas transplantation, or living donor kidney transplantation, underwent 277 biopsies. We focused on the subset of biopsies in patients without delayed graft function (DGF) and with stable or improving renal function, who underwent a biopsy 8.2 ± 2.6 d (range 3-18 d) after transplantation (n = 28). Six (21%) patients with no DGF and with stable or Improving renal function had borderline histopathology, and 7 (25%) had acute tubulitis on the one-week biopsy. Of the 277 kidney biopsies, there was one (0.4%) serious hemorrhagic complication, in a patient receiving low molecular weight heparin; she ultimately recovered and has normal renal function. Her biopsy showed Banff 1B tubulitis. In patients with stable or improving renal allograft function early after transplantation, subclinical tubulitis may be present in a substantial number of patients. This suggests that the true incidence of rejection may be higher than is clinically appreciated

ULS FY14 Planning and Budget Report

This document was submitted by the University Library System (ULS) to the University of Pittsburgh's provost's office on March 1, 2013. Incorporating the work of the ULS FY14 Planning Task Force, it reports ULS accomplishments for 2012-2013 and strategic priorities for 2013-2014

ULS Long Range Plan 2011-2014

This two-page brochure docuuments the long range plan of the University Library System at the University of Pittsburgh for the period 2011-2014. Long-range plans and budgets are developed by each university department or responsibility center and integrated into the university's long range planning. Department- or center-level long range plans consist of two components — mission statements and goals

Ionospheric disturbance overview

A program of research and exploratory development was undertaken to assess the potential impact of Satellite Power System operation on the ionosphere. The program relies on the utilization of ground-based ionospheric heating facilities in order to simulate the ionospheric heating that will come from the Satellite Power System. Thus far, the experimental program directed toward assessing telecommunications impacts has received the most attention, and little impact was observed on VLF, LF, and MF operations

Weak Pseudo-Rationalizability

This paper generalizes rationalizability of a choice function by a single acyclic binary relation to rationalizability by a set of such relations. Rather than selecting those options in a menu that are maximal with respect to a single binary relation, a weakly pseudo-rationalizable choice function selects those options that are maximal with respect to at least one binary relation in a given set. I characterize the class of weakly pseudo-rationalizable choice functions in terms of simple functional properties. This result also generalizes Aizerman and Malishevski's characterization of pseudo-rationalizable choice functions, that is, choice functions rationalizable by a set of total orders

A Global Hypothesis for Women in Journalism and Mass Communications: The Ratio of Recurrent and Reinforced Residuum

This paper examines the status of women in communications industries and on university faculties. It specifically tests the Ratio of Recurrent and Reinforced Residuum or R3 hypothesis, as developed by Rush in the early 1980s [Rush, Buck & Ogan,1982]. The R3 hypothesis predicts that the percentage of women in the communications industries and on university faculties will follow the ratio residing around 1/4:3/4 or 1/3:2/3 proportion females to males. This paper presents data from a nationwide U.S. survey and compares them to data from global surveys and United Nations reports. The evidence is overwhelming and shows the relevance and validity of the R3 hypothesis across different socio-economic and cultural contexts. The paper argues that the ratio is the outcome of systemic discrimination that operates at multiple levels. The obstacles to achieving equality in the academy as well as media industries are discussed and suggestions for breaking out of the R3 ratio are included.

The Importance of Screening for, and managing, Gestational Diabetes Mellitus in Malta

The detection and management of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) has been a source of controversy for many years. Evidence has now accumulated that dietary and insulin therapy are effective and reduce the risk of macrosomia and Caesarean section. Studies are underway to assess the impact of screening and of the different diagnostic criteria for GDM. However, studies to date have reported only an impact on obstetric, neonatal and fetal outcomes. It is now possible to prevent or at least delay the onset of maternal Type 2 diabetes, and interventions targeting women with a history of GDM are likely to have a substantive impact on the current diabetes epidemic. An even greater impact may result from preventing excessive intra-uterine exposure to hyperglycaemia, increasingly implicated as a cause of obesity and diabetes in the offspring of women with past GDM. Developing and implementing approaches to preventing long term risks to mother and baby across populations will take many years and possibly decades. In the meantime, all women should be screened for GDM so that the need for long term follow up, and, where possible, intervention for mother and baby can be identified. Such action requires knowledge of the diagnosis not only by the health care team but also the woman herself.peer-reviewe