Finding strategies that work in developing countries: A one-size-fits-all solution won’t work

National decisions about how to control bird flu are critical to global as well as national success. The best ways to fight bird flu in industrialized countries are often not the best for developing nations. This article describes the strategy of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) and its partners to improve control of the disease in developing countries, and thus to help protect both human health and development around the world

Analyses of the poultry value chain and its linkages and interactions with HPAI risk factors in Nigeria

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has impacts that reverberate throughout the poultry marketing chain. Nigeria suffered waves of HPAI outbreaks that peaked twice in February 2006 and February 2007. The outbreaks affected 3,057 commercial and rural household farms causing 1.3 million of the country’s 160 million poultry to be destroyed at the cost of United States Dollars (USD) 5.4 m paid in compensation by the Government of Nigeria (Federal Department of Livestock [FDL], 2008). However, some impacts of HPAI are often overlooked in policy circles, with policymakers focusing mainly on the upstream impacts at the producer level. The cumulative downstream impacts of HPAI on traders, slaughterhouses, retailers, casual employment, and support services can often dwarf the impacts of the disease at the farm level. More significantly, the failure to capture these diverse impacts may have important implications on the evolution and control of disease that may accentuate its impact. In particular, socio-economic linkages embedded in livestock value chains may serve as important risk factors for the entry, spread, and persistence of disease. Thus, an understanding of these linkages is critical to inform policy and understand the broader livelihood impacts of disease

Pregnancy complications as markers for subsequent maternal cardiovascular disease: Validation of a maternal recall questionnaire

Background: We designed and tested the validity of a questionnaire to characterize maternal recall of pregnancy complications associated with increased future cardiovascular disease risk, based on the 2011 American Heart Association (AHA) guidelines. Methods: A maternal recall questionnaire of pregnancy history was administered to 971 patients who had participated in a previous cohort study of 1,608 pregnant women. Medical records from the study pregnancy served as the gold standard. Prevalence, sensitivity (sens), specificity (spec), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and/or Spearman's correlation coefficients (r) were calculated for each question. Results: A total of 526 (54%) individuals recontacted responded. Respondents were more likely to be older, white, educated, and nulliparous and were less likely to deliver low-birthweight infants in the study pregnancy than were individuals who did not respond. Mean length of recall was 4.35 years (standard deviation [SD] 0.46) postpartum. Maternal recall was most accurate for gestational diabetes (sens: 92%, spec: 98%, PPV: 79%, NPV: 99%), infant birthweight (r=0.95), and gestation length (r=0.85). Maternal recall was modest for preeclampsia (sens: 79%, spec: 97%, PPV: 68%, NPV: 98%) and pregnancy-associated hypertension, including preeclampsia or gestational hypertension (sens: 60%, spec: 95%, PPV: 64%, NPV: 94%). Conclusions: This validation study demonstrated that the majority of women could accurately recall a history of gestational diabetes, infant birthweight, and gestational age at delivery, 4 years postpartum on average. Recall of preeclampsia and pregnancy-associated hypertension overall was modest. Maternal report of these pregnancy conditions may help clinicians identify women at increased risk for cardiovascular disease

Transiting extrasolar planetary candidates in the Galactic bulge

More than 200 extrasolar planets have been discovered around relatively nearby stars, primarily through the Doppler line shifts owing to the reflex motions of their host stars, and more recently through transits of some planets across the face of the host stars. The detection of planets with the shortest known periods, 1.2 to 2.5 days, has mainly resulted from transit surveys which have generally targeted stars more massive than 0.75 M_sun. Here we report the results from a planetary transit search performed in a rich stellar field towards the Galactic bulge. We discovered 16 candidates with orbital periods between 0.4 and 4.2 days, five of which orbit stars of 0.44 to 0.75 M_sun. In two cases, radial-velocity measurements support the planetary nature of the companions. Five candidates have orbital periods below 1.0 day, constituting a new class of ultra-short-period planets (USPPs), which occur only around stars of less than 0.88 M_sun. This indicates that those orbiting very close to more luminous stars might be evaporatively destroyed, or that jovian planets around lower-mass stars might migrate to smaller radii.Comment: To appear in October 5, 2006 issue of Natur

Growth Dynamics of Australia's Polar Dinosaurs

Analysis of bone microstructure in ornithopod and theropod dinosaurs from Victoria, Australia, documents ontogenetic changes, providing insight into the dinosaurs' successful habitation of Cretaceous Antarctic environments. Woven-fibered bone tissue in the smallest specimens indicates rapid growth rates during early ontogeny. Later ontogeny is marked by parallel-fibered tissue, suggesting reduced growth rates approaching skeletal maturity. Bone microstructure similarities between the ornithopods and theropods, including the presence of LAGs in each group, suggest there is no osteohistologic evidence supporting the hypothesis that polar theropods hibernated seasonally. Results instead suggest high-latitude dinosaurs had growth trajectories similar to their lower-latitude relatives and thus, rapid early ontogenetic growth and the cyclical suspensions of growth inherent in the theropod and ornithopod lineages enabled them to successfully exploit polar regions

An updated survey of globular clusters in M 31. III. A spectroscopic metallicity scale for the Revised Bologna Catalog

We present a new homogeneous set of metallicity estimates based on Lick indices for 245 old globular clusters of the M31 galaxy comprised in the Revised Bologna Catalog. The metallicity distribution of the M31 globular clusters is briefly discussed and compared with that of the Milky Way. Simple parametric statistics suggests that the [Fe/H] distribution is likely not unimodal. The strong correlation between metallicity and kinematics found in previous studies is confirmed. The most metal-rich GCs tend to be packed at the center of the system and share the galactic rotation as traced by the HI disk. Although the velocity dispersion around the curve increases with decreasing metallicity, also clusters with [Fe/H]<-1.0 display a clear rotational pattern, at odds with their Milky Way counterparts.Comment: 25 pages with 17 figures and 2 Appendices - To appear on Astronomy & Astrophysic

The EROS2 search for microlensing events towards the spiral arms: the complete seven season results

The EROS-2 project has been designed to search for microlensing events towards any dense stellar field. The densest parts of the Galactic spiral arms have been monitored to maximize the microlensing signal expected from the stars of the Galactic disk and bulge. 12.9 million stars have been monitored during 7 seasons towards 4 directions in the Galactic plane, away from the Galactic center. A total of 27 microlensing event candidates have been found. Estimates of the optical depths from the 22 best events are provided. A first order interpretation shows that simple Galactic models with a standard disk and an elongated bulge are in agreement with our observations. We find that the average microlensing optical depth towards the complete EROS-cataloged stars of the spiral arms is $\bar{\tau} =0.51\pm .13\times 10^{-6}$, a number that is stable when the selection criteria are moderately varied. As the EROS catalog is almost complete up to $I_C=18.5$, the optical depth estimated for the sub-sample of bright target stars with $I_C<18.5$ ($\bar{\tau}=0.39\pm >.11\times 10^{-6}$) is easier to interpret. The set of microlensing events that we have observed is consistent with a simple Galactic model. A more precise interpretation would require either a better knowledge of the distance distribution of the target stars, or a simulation based on a Galactic model. For this purpose, we define and discuss the concept of optical depth for a given catalog or for a limiting magnitude.Comment: 22 pages submitted to Astronomy & Astrophysic

K+A Galaxies as the Aftermath of Gas-Rich Mergers: Simulating the Evolution of Galaxies as Seen by Spectroscopic Surveys

Models of poststarburst (or "K+A") galaxies are constructed by combining fully three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of galaxy mergers with radiative transfer calculations of dust attenuation. Spectral line catalogs are generated automatically from moderate-resolution optical spectra calculated as a function of merger progress in each of a large suite of simulations. The mass, gas fraction, orbital parameters, and mass ratio of the merging galaxies are varied systematically, showing that the lifetime and properties of the K+A phase are strong functions of merger scenario. K+A durations are generally less than ~0.1-0.3 Gyr, significantly shorter than the commonly assumed 1 Gyr, which is obtained only in rare cases, owing to a wide variation in star formation histories resulting from different orbital and progenitor configurations. Combined with empirical merger rates, the model lifetimes predict rapidly-rising K+A fractions as a function of redshift that are consistent with results of large spectroscopic surveys, resolving tension between the observed K+A abundance and that predicted when one assumes the K+A duration is the lifetime of A stars (~1 Gyr). The effects of dust attenuation, viewing angle, and aperture bias on our models are analyzed. In some cases, the K+A features are longer-lived and more pronounced when AGN feedback removes dust from the center, uncovering the young stars formed during the burst. In this picture, the K+A phase begins during or shortly after the bright starburst/AGN phase in violent mergers, and thus offers a unique opportunity to study the effects of quasar and star formation feedback on the gas reservoir and evolution of the remnant. Analytic fitting formulae are provided for the estimates of K+A incidence as a function of merger scenario.Comment: 26 pages, 13 figures; ApJ; minor changes to reflect accepted versio

Second Data Release of the COSMOS Lyman-alpha Mapping and Tomographic Observation: The First 3D Maps of the Detailed Cosmic Web at 2.05<z<2.55

We present the second data release of the COSMOS Lyman-Alpha Mapping And Tomography Observations (CLAMATO) Survey conducted with the LRIS spectrograph on the Keck-I telescope. This project used Lyman-alpha forest absorption in the spectra of faint star forming galaxies and quasars at z ~ 2-3 to trace neutral hydrogen in the intergalactic medium. In particular, we use 320 objects over a footprint of ~0.2 deg^2 to reconstruct the absorption field at 2.05 < z < 2.55 at ~2 h^{-1}Mpc resolution. We apply a Wiener filtering technique to the observed data to reconstruct three dimensional maps of the field over a volume of 4.1 x 10^5 comoving cubic Mpc. In addition to the filtered flux maps, for the first time we infer the underlying dark matter field through a forward modeling framework from a joint likelihood of galaxy and Lyman-alpha forest data, finding clear examples of the detailed cosmic web consisting of cosmic voids, sheets, filaments, and nodes. In addition to traditional figures, we present a number of interactive three dimensional models to allow exploration of the data and qualitative comparisons to known galaxy surveys. We find that our inferred over-densities are consistent with those found from galaxy fields. Our reduced spectra, extracted Lyman-alpha forest pixel data, and reconstructed tomographic maps are available publicly at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5842842Comment: 20 pages, 15 figures. Data is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5842842 arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1710.0289