Predicting incident delirium diagnoses using data from primary-care electronic health records

Importance risk factors for delirium in hospital inpatients are well established, but less is known about whether delirium occurring in the community or during an emergency admission to hospital care might be predicted from routine primary-care records. Objectives identify risk factors in primary-care electronic health records (PC-EHR) predictive of delirium occurring in the community or recorded in the initial episode in emergency hospitalisation. Test predictive performance against the cumulative frailty index. Design Stage 1: case-control; Stages 2 and 3: retrospective cohort. Setting clinical practice research datalink: PC-EHR linked to hospital discharge data from England. Subjects Stage 1: 17,286 patients with delirium aged ≥60 years plus 85,607 controls. Stages 2 and 3: patients ≥ 60 years (n = 429,548 in 2015), split into calibration and validation groups. Methods Stage 1: logistic regression to identify associations of 110 candidate risk measures with delirium. Stage 2: calibrating risk factor weights. Stage 3: validation in independent sample using area under the curve (AUC) receiver operating characteristic. Results fifty-five risk factors were predictive, in domains including: cognitive impairment or mental illness, psychoactive drugs, frailty, infection, hyponatraemia and anticholinergic drugs. The derived model predicted 1-year incident delirium (AUC = 0.867, 0.852:0.881) and mortality (AUC = 0.846, 0.842:0.853), outperforming the frailty index (AUC = 0.761, 0.740:0.782). Individuals with the highest 10% of predicted delirium risk accounted for 55% of incident delirium over 1 year. Conclusions a risk factor model for delirium using data in PC-EHR performed well, identifying individuals at risk of new onsets of delirium. This model has potential for supporting preventive interventions

A systematic review and meta-synthesis of the impact of low back pain on people's lives

Copyright @ 2014 Froud et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited.Background - Low back pain (LBP) is a common and costly problem that many interpret within a biopsychosocial model. There is renewed concern that core-sets of outcome measures do not capture what is important. To inform debate about the coverage of back pain outcome measure core-sets, and to suggest areas worthy of exploration within healthcare consultations, we have synthesised the qualitative literature on the impact of low back pain on people’s lives. Methods - Two reviewers searched CINAHL, Embase, PsycINFO, PEDro, and Medline, identifying qualitative studies of people’s experiences of non-specific LBP. Abstracted data were thematic coded and synthesised using a meta-ethnographic, and a meta-narrative approach. Results - We included 49 papers describing 42 studies. Patients are concerned with engagement in meaningful activities; but they also want to be believed and have their experiences and identity, as someone ‘doing battle’ with pain, validated. Patients seek diagnosis, treatment, and cure, but also reassurance of the absence of pathology. Some struggle to meet social expectations and obligations. When these are achieved, the credibility of their pain/disability claims can be jeopardised. Others withdraw, fearful of disapproval, or unable or unwilling to accommodate social demands. Patients generally seek to regain their pre-pain levels of health, and physical and emotional stability. After time, this can be perceived to become unrealistic and some adjust their expectations accordingly. Conclusions - The social component of the biopsychosocial model is not well represented in current core-sets of outcome measures. Clinicians should appreciate that the broader impact of low back pain includes social factors; this may be crucial to improving patients’ experiences of health care. Researchers should consider social factors to help develop a portfolio of more relevant outcome measures.Arthritis Research U

Singing in the Rain Forest: How a Tropical Bird Song Transfers Information

How information transmission processes between individuals are shaped by natural selection is a key question for the understanding of the evolution of acoustic communication systems. Environmental acoustics predict that signal structure will differ depending on general features of the habitat. Social features, like individual spacing and mating behavior, may also be important for the design of communication. Here we present the first experimental study investigating how a tropical rainforest bird, the white-browed warbler Basileuterus leucoblepharus, extracts various information from a received song: species-specific identity, individual identity and location of the sender. Species-specific information is encoded in a resistant acoustic feature and is thus a public signal helping males to reach a wide audience. Conversely, individual identity is supported by song features susceptible to propagation: this private signal is reserved for neighbors. Finally, the receivers can locate the singers by using propagation-induced song modifications. Thus, this communication system is well matched to the acoustic constraints of the rain forest and to the ecological requirements of the species. Our results emphasize that, in a constraining acoustic environment, the efficiency of a sound communication system results from a coding/decoding process particularly well tuned to the acoustic properties of this environment

Evolutionary Dead End in the Galápagos: Divergence of Sexual Signals in the Rarest of Darwin's Finches

Understanding the mechanisms underlying speciation remains a challenge in evolutionary biology. The adaptive radiation of Darwin's finches is a prime example of species formation, and their study has revealed many important insights into evolutionary processes. Here, we report striking differences in mating signals (songs), morphology and genetics between the two remnant populations of Darwin's mangrove finch Camarhynchus heliobates, one of the rarest species in the world. We also show that territorial males exhibited strong discrimination of sexual signals by locality: in response to foreign songs, males responded weaker than to songs from their own population. Female responses were infrequent and weak but gave approximately similar results. Our findings not only suggest speciation in the mangrove finch, thereby providing strong support for the central role of sexual signals during speciation, but they have also implications for the conservation of this iconic bird. If speciation is complete, the eastern species will face imminent extinction, because it has a population size of only 5–10 individuals

Sensing and Adaptation to Low pH Mediated by Inducible Amino Acid Decarboxylases in Salmonella

During the course of infection, Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium must successively survive the harsh acid stress of the stomach and multiply into a mild acidic compartment within macrophages. Inducible amino acid decarboxylases are known to promote adaptation to acidic environments. Three low pH inducible amino acid decarboxylases were annotated in the genome of S. Typhimurium, AdiA, CadA and SpeF, which are specific for arginine, lysine and ornithine, respectively. In this study, we characterized and compared the contributions of those enzymes in response to acidic challenges. Individual mutants as well as a strain deleted for the three genes were tested for their ability (i) to survive an extreme acid shock, (ii) to grow at mild acidic pH and (iii) to infect the mouse animal model. We showed that the lysine decarboxylase CadA had the broadest range of activity since it both had the capacity to promote survival at pH 2.3 and growth at pH 4.5. The arginine decarboxylase AdiA was the most performant in protecting S. Typhimurium from a shock at pH 2.3 and the ornithine decarboxylase SpeF conferred the best growth advantage under anaerobiosis conditions at pH 4.5. We developed a GFP-based gene reporter to monitor the pH of the environment as perceived by S. Typhimurium. Results showed that activities of the lysine and ornithine decarboxylases at mild acidic pH did modify the local surrounding of S. Typhimurium both in culture medium and in macrophages. Finally, we tested the contribution of decarboxylases to virulence and found that these enzymes were dispensable for S. Typhimurium virulence during systemic infection. In the light of this result, we examined the genomes of Salmonella spp. normally responsible of systemic infection and observed that the genes encoding these enzymes were not well conserved, supporting the idea that these enzymes may be not required during systemic infection

Multi-tier Loyalty Programs to Stimulate Customer Engagement

Customers differ in their purchase behavior, profitability, attitude toward the firm, and so on. These differences between customers have led to numerous firms introducing multi-tier loyalty programs. A multi-tier loyalty program explicitly distinguishes between customers by means of hierarchical tiers (e.g. Silver, Gold, Platinum) and assigns customers to different tiers based on their past purchase behavior. Next, customers in different tiers are provided varying levels of tangible rewards and intangible benefits, which are potentially powerful instruments to stimulate customer engagement. In this chapter, we focus on the design and effectiveness of such multi-tier loyalty programs. Building on loyalty program and customer prioritization research, we discuss whether, why, and how multi-tier loyalty programs are effective (or not) in influencing customer behavior, thereby enhancing customer engagement and financial performance

Biomarkers of Therapeutic Response in the IL-23 Pathway in Inflammatory Bowel Disease

OBJECTIVES: Interleukin-23 (IL-23) has emerged as a new therapeutic target for the treatment of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). As biomarkers of disease state and treatment efficacy are becoming increasingly important in drug development, we sought to identify efficacy biomarkers for anti-IL-23 therapy in Crohn's disease (CD). METHODS: Candidate IL-23 biomarkers, downstream of IL-23 signaling, were identified using shotgun proteomic analysis of feces and colon lavages obtained from a short-term mouse IBD model (anti-CD40 Rag2(-/-)) treated preventively with monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) to the IL-23 receptor (IL-23R). The biomarkers were then measured in an IBD T-cell transfer model treated therapeutically with a mAb to IL-23 (p19), confirming their association with IBD. To assess the clinical relevance of these markers, we assessed their concentrations in clinical serum, colon tissue, and feces from CD patients. RESULTS: We identified 57 proteins up or downregulated in diseased animals that returned to control values when the mice were treated with mAbs to IL-23R. Among those, S100A8, S100A9, regenerating protein 3β (REG), REG3γ, lipocalin 2 (LCN2), deleted in malignant tumor 1 (DMBT1), and macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) mRNA levels correlated with disease score and dose titration of mAbs to IL-23R or IL-23(p19). All biomarkers, except DMBT1, were also downregulated after therapeutic administration of mAbs to IL-23(p19) in a T-cell transfer IBD mouse model. In sera from CD patients, we confirmed a significant upregulation of S100A8/A9 (43%), MIF (138%), pancreatitis-associated protein (PAP, human homolog of REG3β/γ; 49%), LCN2 (520%), and CCL20 (1280%), compared with control samples, as well as a significant upregulation of S100A8/A9 (887%), PAP (401%), and LCN2 (783%) in human feces from CD patients compared with normal controls. CONCLUSIONS: These studies identify multiple protein biomarkers downstream of IL-23 that could be valuable tools to assess the efficacy of this new therapeutic agent.Clinical and Translational Gastroenterology (2012) 3, e10; doi:10.1038/ctg.2012.2; published online 16 February 2012

Proteasome Activator Enhances Survival of Huntington's Disease Neuronal Model Cells

In patients with Huntington's disease (HD), the proteolytic activity of the ubiquitin proteasome system (UPS) is reduced in the brain and other tissues. The pathological hallmark of HD is the intraneuronal nuclear protein aggregates of mutant huntingtin. We determined how to enhance UPS function and influence catalytic protein degradation and cell survival in HD. Proteasome activators involved in either the ubiquitinated or the non-ubiquitinated proteolysis were overexpressed in HD patients' skin fibroblasts or mutant huntingtin-expressing striatal neurons. Following compromise of the UPS, overexpression of the proteasome activator subunit PA28γ, but not subunit S5a, recovered proteasome function in the HD cells. PA28γ also improved cell viability in mutant huntingtin-expressing striatal neurons exposed to pathological stressors, such as the excitotoxin quinolinic acid and the reversible proteasome inhibitor MG132. These results demonstrate the specific functional enhancements of the UPS that can provide neuroprotection in HD cells