Comparison of Two Detailed Models of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics

The success of control programs for mosquito-­borne diseases can be enhanced by crucial information provided by models of the mosquito populations. Models, however, can differ in their structure, complexity, and biological assumptions, and these differences impact their predictions. Unfortunately, it is typically difficult to determine why two complex models make different predictions because we lack structured side-­by-­side comparisons of models using comparable parameterization. Here, we present a detailed comparison of two complex, spatially explicit, stochastic models of the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, the main vector of dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. Both models describe the mosquito?s biological and ecological characteristics, but differ in complexity and specific assumptions. We compare the predictions of these models in two selected climatic settings: a tropical and weakly seasonal climate in Iquitos, Peru, and a temperate and strongly seasonal climate in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Both models were calibrated to operate at identical average densities in unperturbedconditions in both settings, by adjusting parameters regulating densities in each model (number of larval development sites and amount of nutritional resources). We show that the models differ in their sensitivityto environmental conditions (temperature and rainfall) and trace differences to specific model assumptions.Temporal dynamics of the Ae. aegypti populations predicted by the two models differ more markedly under strongly seasonal Buenos Aires conditions. We use both models to simulate killing of larvae and/or adults with insecticides in selected areas. We show that predictions of population recovery by the models differ substantially, an effect likely related to model assumptions regarding larval development and (director delayed) density dependence. Our methodical comparison provides important guidance for model improvement by identifying key areas of Ae. aegypti ecology that substantially affect model predictions, and revealing the impact of model assumptions on population dynamics predictions in unperturbed and perturbed conditions.Fil: Legros, Mathieu. University of North Carolina; Estados UnidosFil: Otero, Marcelo Javier. Universidad de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa. Universidad de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Solari, Hernan Gustavo. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Gould, Fred. National Institutes of Health; Estados UnidosFil: Lloyd, Alun L.. National Institutes of Health; Estados Unido

Credibility and adjustment: gold standards versus currency boards

It is often maintained that currency boards (CBs) and gold standards (GSs) are alike in that they are stringent monetary rules, the two basic features of which are high credibility of monetary authorities and the existence of automatic adjustment (non discretionary) mechanism. This article includes a comparative analysis of these two types of regimes both from the perspective of the sources and mechanisms of generating confidence and credibility, and the elements of operation of the automatic adjustment mechanism. Confidence under the GS is endogenously driven, whereas it is exogenously determined under the CB. CB is a much more asymmetric regime than GS (the adjustment is much to the detriment of peripheral countries) although asymmetry is a typical feature of any monetary regime. The lack of credibility is typical for peripheral countries and cannot be overcome completely even by “hard” monetary regimes.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40078/3/wp692.pd

Reconstructed Dynamics of Rapid Extinctions of Chaparral-Requiring Birds in Urban Habitat Islands

The distribution of native, chaparral-requiring bird species was determined for 37 isolated fragments of canyon habitat ranging in size from 0.4 to 104 hectares in coastal, urban San Diego County, California The area of chaparral habitat and canyon age (time since isolation of the habitat fragment) explains most of the variation in the number of chaparral-requiring bird species. In addition, the distribution of native predators may influence species number. There is statistical evidence that coyotes control the populations of smaller predators such as foxes and domestic cats. The absence of coyotes may lead to higher levels of predation by a process of mesopredator release. The distance of canyons from other patches of chaparral habitat does not add significantly to the explained variance in chaparral-requiring species number–probably because of the virtual inability of most chaparral-requiring species to disperse through developed areas and nonscrub habitats. These results and other lines of evidence suggest that chaparral-requiring birds in isolated canyons have very high rates of extinction, in part because of their low vagility. The best predictors of vulnerability of the individual species are their abundances (densities) in undisturbed habitat and their body sizes; together these two variables account for 95 percent of the variation in canyon occupancy. A hypothesis is proposed to account for the similarity between the steep slopes of species-area curves for chaparral-requiring birds and the slopes for some forest birds on small islands or in habitat fragments. The provision of corridors appears to be the most effective design and planning feature for preventing the elimination of chaparral-requiring species in a fragmented landscape.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/74761/1/j.1523-1739.1988.tb00337.x.pd

Scaling up the effects of inbreeding depression from individuals to metapopulations

Abstract Inbreeding is common in nature, and many laboratory studies have documented that inbreeding depression can reduce the fitness of individuals. Demonstrating the consequences of inbreeding depression on the growth and persistence of populations is more challenging because populations are often regulated by density- or frequency-dependent selection and influenced by demographic and environmental stochasticity. A few empirical studies have shown that inbreeding depression can increase extinction risk of local populations. The importance of inbreeding depression at the metapopulation level has been conjectured based on population-level studies but has not been evaluated. We quantified the impact of inbreeding depression affecting the fitness of individuals on metapopulation persistence in heterogeneous habitat networks of different sizes and habitat configuration in a context of natural butterfly metapopulations. We developed a spatial individual-based simulation model of metapopulations with explicit genetics. We used Approximate Bayesian Computation to fit the model to extensive demographic, genetic, and life-history data available for the well-studied Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) metapopulations in the Åland islands in SW Finland. We compared 18 semi-independent habitat networks differing in size and fragmentation. The results show that inbreeding is more frequent in small habitat networks, and consequently, inbreeding depression elevates extinction risks in small metapopulations. Metapopulation persistence and neutral genetic diversity maintained in the metapopulations increase with the total habitat amount in and mean patch size of habitat networks. Dispersal and mating behavior interact with landscape structure to determine how likely it is to encounter kin while looking for mates. Inbreeding depression can decrease the viability of small metapopulations even when they are strongly influenced by stochastic extinction-colonization dynamics and density-dependent selection. The findings from this study support that genetic factors, in addition to demographic factors, can contribute to extinctions of small local populations and also of metapopulations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Reports of the AAAI 2019 spring symposium series

Applications of machine learning combined with AI algorithms have propelled unprecedented economic disruptions across diverse fields in industry, military, medicine, finance, and others. With the forecast for even larger impacts, the present economic impact of machine learning is estimated in the trillions of dollars. But as autonomous machines become ubiquitous, recent problems have surfaced. Early on, and again in 2018, Judea Pearl warned AI scientists they must "build machines that make sense of what goes on in their environment," a warning still unheeded that may impede future development. For example, self-driving vehicles often rely on sparse data; self-driving cars have already been involved in fatalities, including a pedestrian; and yet machine learning is unable to explain the contexts within which it operates

The rise in narghile (shisha, hookah) waterpipe tobacco smoking: A qualitative study of perceptions of smokers and non smokers

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The prevalence of waterpipe tobacco smoking (WTS) in the Middle East region and worldwide is increasing. There is evidence to indicate both short term and long term health effects of WTS, resulting in the issuance of an advisory note by the World Health Organization.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This research aimed at gaining an in-depth understanding of the factors contributing to the rise in WTS in Lebanon. Qualitative focus groups (25) and in-depth interviews (9) were conducted with adults in Lebanon in 2007. Participants were recruited to represent diversity in smoking status, gender, age groups and urban/rural residence. The interviews and focus groups were thematically analyzed, and recurrent themes noted and summarized.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The main themes identified were availability, affordability, innovation, influence of media, lack of a policy framework, and the sensory characteristics evoked from WTS. Men and women, smokers and non-smokers, and younger and older participants differed in their emphases on the above themes. These themes, though specific to waterpipe, are similar to themes manipulated by the cigarette industry, and eventually controlled through tobacco control policies.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Understanding reasons behind the rise in waterpipe tobacco use is important if appropriate prevention, cessation, and policy interventions are to be formulated. Strict adherence to the FCTC is warranted, with careful and vigilant attention that all tobacco products are covered by laws in both high as well as middle to lower income countries.</p

Comparing Static and Dynamic Weighted Software Coupling Metrics

Coupling metrics that count the number of inter-module connections in a software system are an established way to measure internal software quality with respect to modularity. In addition to static metrics, which are obtained from the source or compiled code of a program, dynamic metrics use runtime data gathered, e.g., by monitoring a system in production. Dynamic metrics have been used to improve the accuracy of static metrics for object-oriented software. We study weighted dynamic coupling that takes into account how often a connection (e.g., a method call) is executed during a system’s run. We investigate the correlation between dynamic weighted metrics and their static counterparts. To compare the different metrics, we use data collected from four different experiments, each monitoring production use of a commercial software system over a period of four weeks. We observe an unexpected level of correlation between the static and the weighted dynamic case as well as revealing differences between class- and package-level analyses

The OECD and phases in the international political economy, 1961–2011

In 2011, the OECD turned fifty. To provide a broad foundation for further thinking on this organization, we analyse its evolution over half a century from two perspectives: phases in the international political economy and the literature on IPE. By so doing, we uncover two paradoxes. Firstly, we find that the organization’s evolution closely mirrored major phases in the postwar international political economy until recently. However, the OECD’s long-term dependence on theWest has now become an obstacle to its efforts to adapt to the latest phase, characterised by the rise of non-Western powers. Secondly, we show that, during the OECD’s “golden age”, scholars paid relatively little attention to the organization but, from the 2000s, as the organization faced an unprecedented challenge of its potential economic decline, IPE literature on the organization blossomed