Scoping Potential Routes to UK Civil Unrest via the Food System: Results of a Structured Expert Elicitation

We report the results of a structured expert elicitation to identify the most likely types of potential food system disruption scenarios for the UK, focusing on routes to civil unrest. We take a backcasting approach by defining as an end-point a societal event in which 1 in 2000 people have been injured in the UK, which 40% of experts rated as “Possible (20–50%)”, “More likely than not (50–80%)” or “Very likely (>80%)” over the coming decade. Over a timeframe of 50 years, this increased to 80% of experts. The experts considered two food system scenarios and ranked their plausibility of contributing to the given societal scenario. For a timescale of 10 years, the majority identified a food distribution problem as the most likely. Over a timescale of 50 years, the experts were more evenly split between the two scenarios, but over half thought the most likely route to civil unrest would be a lack of total food in the UK. However, the experts stressed that the various causes of food system disruption are interconnected and can create cascading risks, highlighting the importance of a systems approach. We encourage food system stakeholders to use these results in their risk planning and recommend future work to support prevention, preparedness, response and recovery planning

Does Amazon forest leaf phenology mediate transpiration seasonality and hence, ecoclimate teleconnections?

Abstract OOS 11-5

Age-dependent leaf function and consequences for carbon uptake of leaves, branches, and the canopy during the dry season in an Amazon evergreen forest.

Abstract COS 124-3

Co-designing Urban Living Solutions to Improve Older People’s Mobility and Well-Being

Mobility is a key aspect of active ageing enabling participation and autonomy into later life. Remaining active brings multiple physical but also social benefits leading to higher levels of well-being. With globally increasing levels of urbanisation alongside demographic shifts meaning in many parts of the world this urban population will be older people, the challenge is how cities should evolve to enable so-called active ageing. This paper reports on a co-design study with 117 participants investigating the interaction of existing urban spaces and infrastructure on mobility and well-being for older residents (aged 55 + years) in three cities. A mixed method approach was trialled to identify locations beneficial to subjective well-being and participant-led solutions to urban mobility challenges. Spatial analysis was used to identify key underlying factors in locations and infrastructure that promoted or compromised mobility and well-being for participants. Co-designed solutions were assessed for acceptability or co-benefits amongst a wider cross-section of urban residents (n = 233) using online and face-to-face surveys in each conurbation. Our analysis identified three critical intersecting and interacting thematic problems for urban mobility amongst older people: The quality of physical infrastructure; issues around the delivery, governance and quality of urban systems and services; and the attitudes and behaviors of individuals that older people encounter. This identified complexity reinforces the need for policy responses that may not necessarily involve design or retrofit measures, but instead might challenge perceptions and behaviors of use and access to urban space. Our co-design results further highlight that solutions need to move beyond the generic and placeless, instead embedding specific locally relevant solutions in inherently geographical spaces, populations and processes to ensure they relate to the intricacies of place

An introduction to the Australian and New Zealand flux tower network - OzFlux

© Author(s) 2016. OzFlux is the regional Australian and New Zealand flux tower network that aims to provide a continental-scale national research facility to monitor and assess trends, and improve predictions, of Australia's terrestrial biosphere and climate. This paper describes the evolution, design, and current status of OzFlux as well as provides an overview of data processing. We analyse measurements from all sites within the Australian portion of the OzFlux network and two sites from New Zealand. The response of the Australian biomes to climate was largely consistent with global studies except that Australian systems had a lower ecosystem water-use efficiency. Australian semi-arid/arid ecosystems are important because of their huge extent (70 %) and they have evolved with common moisture limitations. We also found that Australian ecosystems had a similar radiation-use efficiency per unit leaf area compared to global values that indicates a convergence toward a similar biochemical efficiency. The two New Zealand sites represented extremes in productivity for a moist temperate climate zone, with the grazed dairy farm site having the highest GPP of any OzFlux site (2620 gC m-2 yr-1) and the natural raised peat bog site having a very low GPP (820 gC m-2 yr-1). The paper discusses the utility of the flux data and the synergies between flux, remote sensing, and modelling. Lastly, the paper looks ahead at the future direction of the network and concludes that there has been a substantial contribution by OzFlux, and considerable opportunities remain to further advance our understanding of ecosystem response to disturbances, including drought, fire, land-use and land-cover change, land management, and climate change, which are relevant both nationally and internationally. It is suggested that a synergistic approach is required to address all of the spatial, ecological, human, and cultural challenges of managing the delicately balanced ecosystems in Australasia

Two negative cis-regulatory regions involved in fruit-specific promoter activity from watermelon (Citrullus vulgaris S.)

A 1.8 kb 5′-flanking region of the large subunit of ADP-glucose pyrophosphorylase, isolated from watermelon (Citrullus vulgaris S.), has fruit-specific promoter activity in transgenic tomato plants. Two negative regulatory regions, from –986 to –959 and from –472 to –424, were identified in this promoter region by fine deletion analyses. Removal of both regions led to constitutive expression in epidermal cells. Gain-of-function experiments showed that these two regions were sufficient to inhibit RFP (red fluorescent protein) expression in transformed epidermal cells when fused to the cauliflower mosaic virus (CaMV) 35S minimal promoter. Gel mobility shift experiments demonstrated the presence of leaf nuclear factors that interact with these two elements. A TCCAAAA motif was identified in these two regions, as well as one in the reverse orientation, which was confirmed to be a novel specific cis-element. A quantitative β-glucuronidase (GUS) activity assay of stable transgenic tomato plants showed that the activities of chimeric promoters harbouring only one of the two cis-elements, or both, were ∼10-fold higher in fruits than in leaves. These data confirm that the TCCAAAA motif functions as a fruit-specific element by inhibiting gene expression in leaves

Profiling CpG island field methylation in both morphologically normal and neoplastic human colonic mucosa

Aberrant CpG island (CGI) methylation occurs early in colorectal neoplasia. Quantitative methylation-specific PCR profiling applied to biopsies was used to quantify low levels of CGI methylation of 18 genes in the morphologically normal colonic mucosa of neoplasia-free subjects, adenomatous polyp patients, cancer patients and their tumours. Multivariate statistical analyses distinguished tumour from mucosa with a sensitivity of 78.9% and a specificity of 100% (P=3 × 10−7). In morphologically normal mucosa, age-dependent CGI methylation was observed for APC, AXIN2, DKK1, HPP1, N33, p16, SFRP1, SFRP2 and SFRP4 genes, and significant differences in CGI methylation levels were detected between groups. Multinomial logistic regression models based on the CGI methylation profiles from normal mucosa correctly identified 78.9% of cancer patients and 87.9% of non-cancer (neoplasia-free+polyp) patients (P=4.93 × 10−7) using APC, HPP1, p16, SFRP4, WIF1 and ESR1 methylation as the most informative variables. Similarly, CGI methylation of SFRP4, SFRP5 and WIF1 correctly identified 61.5% of polyp patients and 78.9% of neoplasia-free subjects (P=0.0167). The apparently normal mucosal field of patients presenting with neoplasia has evidently undergone significant epigenetic modification. Methylation of the genes selected by the models may play a role in the earliest stages of the development of colorectal neoplasia

Technology transfer offices as boundary spanners in the pre-spin-off process: the case of a hybrid model

Over the past decades, universities have increasingly become ambidextrous organizations reconciling scientific and commercial missions. In order to manage this ambidexterity, technology transfer offices (TTOs) were established in most universities. This paper studies a specific, often implemented, but rather understudied type of TTO, namely a hybrid TTO model uniting centralized and decentralized levels. Employing a qualitative research design, we examine how and why the two TTO levels engage in diverse boundary spanning activities to help nascent spin-off companies move through the pre-spin-off process. Our research identifies differences in the types of boundary spanning activities that centralized and decentralized TTOs perform and in the parties they engage with. We find geographical, technological and organizational proximity to be important antecedents of the TTOs’ engagement in external and internal boundary spanning activities. These results have important implications for both academics and practitioners interested in university technology transfer through spin-off creation